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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
ACC|FRANK REICH|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
STANFORD83 FPIACC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
67FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
53%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
83%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-10IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#562 BC / 17
BC RATIO
11%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-10.3
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE36
PERFORMANCE36
TALENT70
CONTINUITY53
DEFENSE60
PERFORMANCE60
TALENT62
CONTINUITY83
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
63MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 23AHAWAI'I—L 20-23135050-32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6ABYU#11L 3-27508787-69BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HBOSTON COLLEGE—W 30-20502929-11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20AVIRGINIA#16L 20-48557878-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HSAN JOSÉ STATE—W 30-29211313+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11ASMU—L 10-34828484-66BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HFLORIDA STATE—W 20-13877070-52BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25AMIAMI#2L 7-42909494-76BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HPITTSBURGH—L 20-35607474-56BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8ANORTH CAROLINA—L 15-20783333-15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HCALIFORNIA—W 31-10744141-23BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HNOTRE DAME#10L 20-49949797-79BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB22TAL58PERF22RET33ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
BEN GULBRANSONQB SEPORTAL · OREGON STATE
★3★37966%-2HELD
7
ELIJAH BROWNQB SORET
★4★37033%-26FELL
17
CHARLIE MIRERQB SERET
★3★3151%—HELD
9
MYLES JACKSONQB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
10
DYLAN RIZKQB JUPORTAL · UCF
★3★300%+14HELD
▾RB53TAL63PERF53RET95ROTATIONn=3 · 5 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
20
MICAH FORDRB JURET
★3—8842%-34—
3
COLE TABBRB JURET
★3★38232%-41HELD
26
SEDRICK IRVINRB SERET
★3—6717%-24—
6
TUNA ALTAHIRRB SEPORTAL · EASTERN WASHINGTON
★3★3465%-43HELD
34
CHAMP HAMPTONRB JURET
★3—434%-37—
5
CHRIS DAVIS JR.RB SORET
★3—00%+6—
▾WR/TE58TAL72PERF54RET60ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 40 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
86
SAM ROUSHTE SERET
★4—10069%+44—
3
C.J. WILLIAMSWR SEPORTAL · WISCONSIN
★4★39733%-7FELL
11
BRYCE FARRELLWR SERET
★3—9227%-26—
0
CADEN HIGHWR SEPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
UNR★38422%+2EMERGED
88
BENJI BLACKBURNTE JURET
★3—7520%+26—
5
MYLES LIBMANWR JURET
★3★3617%-39HELD
3
MARCUS BROWNWR SORET
★3★2607%-31FELL
80
BRENDAN DOYLETE SEPORTAL · MEMPHIS
UNR★3599%-24EMERGED
4
JORDAN ONOVUGHEWR JUPORTAL · COLORADO
★3★3412%—HELD
13
LIAM THORPEWR SONO SNAPS
★3—271%——
84
CHICO HOLTTE JURET
★3—221%——
11
JONANTHONY HALLWR FRTRUE FR
★4—140%——
82
TYLER KUOWR JURET
UNR—110%——
87
AIDEN BLACKTE SORET
★3—00%——
89
GRIFFIN WAISSTE SERET
UNR★200%—EMERGED
19
DAVID PANTELISWR SEPORTAL · YALE
UNR★300%—EMERGED
40
JASON THOMPSONWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
85
ZACH GIULIANOTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
83
REIMAN ZEBERTTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
32
OWEN VAN LOBEN SELSWR SORET
UNR—00%——
▸OL34TAL73PERF34RET51n=8 · 3 METRICS · 22 OBS
▸DL54TAL57PERF54RET98n=7 · 7 METRICS · 32 OBS
▸LB43TAL72PERF43RET80n=10 · 11 METRICS · 59 OBS
▸DB51TAL57PERF51RET82n=10 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JONANTHONY HALLHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
BEAR BACHMEIERHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
GABE KAMINSKIHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ADAM SHOVLINHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JOSH WILLIAMSHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
LANDON MCCOMBERHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
KOLE BRIEHLERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
REIMAN ZEBERTHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
MICKEY VACCARELLOHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
EMEKA UGORJIHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
HUNTER BARTHCALIFORNIALB★3★3
DYLAN RIZKUCFQB★3★3
BEN GULBRANSONOREGON STATEQB★3★3
DAVID PANTELISYALEWRUNR★3
BRENDAN DOYLEMEMPHISTEUNR★3
NIKI PRONGOSUCLAOTUNR★3
C.J. WILLIAMSWISCONSINWR★4★3
CADEN HIGHSOUTH CAROLINA STATEWRUNR★3
SAM NEELY IIIWAKE FORESTCB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT29 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAKE MAIKKULAOKLAHOMAOL★3★3
LUKE BAKLENKOOKLAHOMAOL★3★3
DAVID BAILEYTEXAS TECHLB★4★4
ASHTON DANIELSAUBURNQB★3★3
EMMETT MOSLEY VTEXASWR★3★3
TIGER BACHMEIERBYUWR★3★3
CONNOR MCLAUGHLINSOUTH FLORIDAOL★4★3
JUSTIN LAMSONMONTANA STATEQB★3★3
JACKSON HARRISHAWAI'IWR★4★3
OMARI PORTERRICECB★3UNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES56%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS70%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#56NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8705COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1727 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST32% BACK32th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG32% BACK32th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR51%51th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR32%32th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST82%82th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE