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● LIVE|2021 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›TCU›2021TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
BIG 12|GARY PATTERSON|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
TCU68 FPIB12 · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
75FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-17IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#613 BC / 16
BC RATIO
27%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
5-7ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-6.3
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
67MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 4HDUQUESNE—W 45-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 11HCALIFORNIA—W 34-32724848-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 25HSMU—L 34-42556666-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2HTEXAS—L 27-32936464-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 9ATEXAS TECH—W 52-31587070-32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 16AOKLAHOMA#10L 31-52969191-53BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 23HWEST VIRGINIA—L 17-29604545-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30AKANSAS STATE—L 12-31528585-47BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6HBAYLOR#5W 30-28718989-51BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 13AOKLAHOMA STATE#7L 17-63619191-53BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 20HKANSAS—W 31-284855+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26AIOWA STATE—L 14-48618686-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET100NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
MAX DUGGANQB SERET
★4—00%——
7
MATTHEW DOWNINGQB JURET
UNR★200%—EMERGED
4
CHANDLER MORRISQB SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
★4★300%—FELL
25
LUKE PARDEEQB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET71NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
DAIMARQUA FOSTERRB SORET
★4—00%——
24
DERYL REYNOLDSRB SERET
UNR—00%——
33
KENDRE MILLERRB JURET
★3—00%——
8
MONTE WATKINSRB JUNO SNAPS
★4★400%—HELD
3
EMARI DEMERCADORB SERET
UNR—00%——
6
ZACH EVANSRB JURET
★5—00%——
6
TRENT BATTLERB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
QUINCY BROWNWR SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
8
GEOR'QUARIUS SPIVEYTE SEPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
★3★300%—HELD
0
BLAIR CONWRIGHTWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
13
JAKE NEUFELDWR JURET
★2—00%——
23
SAM BANKSWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
4
TAYE BARBERWR SERET
★3—00%——
11
DERIUS DAVISWR SERET
★3—00%——
27
GUNNAR HENDERSONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
1
QUENTIN JOHNSTONWR JURET
★4—00%——
84
DOMINIC DINUNZIOTE JURET
UNR—00%——
87
BLAKE NOWELLWR SERET
★3—00%——
3
SAVION WILLIAMSWR SERET
★3—00%——
41
HILTON HARRISTE SORET
★3—00%——
10
JD SPIELMANWR SERET
★3—00%——
18
SAM JACKSON VWR SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
11
MIKEL BARKLEYWR SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
47
CARTER WARETE SERET
UNR—00%——
89
JACK POWERSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
88
CALEB MEDFORDWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
86
ALEX HONIGTE SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
46
MICHAEL FRANKLINWR SORET
UNR—00%——
83
CADE ROSENKRANZWR SORET
UNR—00%——
6
CHASE JACKSONWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
19
TJ STEELEWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
32
CHRISTIAN MACDONALDWR SORET
UNR—00%——
82
MITCHELL HANSENTE SORET
UNR—00%——
85
NICK BUSAWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
44
BEN REPPENHAGENTE SORET
UNR—00%——
81
CHASE CURTISTE SERET
UNR—00%——
80
CHRISTOPHER LEBBIEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MONTE WATKINSHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
D'ARCO PERKINS-MCALLISTERHS RECRUITS★4UNR
SAM JACKSON VHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
CHRIS MURRAYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
LANDYN WATSONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
MARVIN COVINGTONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ALEX HONIGHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
CHASE JACKSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
NOAH BOLTICOFFHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
TRENT BATTLEHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
OBINNA EZEMEMPHISOT★4★4
T.J. CARTERMEMPHISCB★3★3
SHADRACH BANKSTEXAS A&MWRUNR★3
KENNY TURNIERUCFWDE★3★3
CHANDLER MORRISOKLAHOMADUAL★4★3
GEOR'QUARIUS SPIVEYMISSISSIPPI STATETE★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT14 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DARWIN BARLOWUSCRB★3★3
TE'VAILANCE HUNTARKANSAS STATEWR★4UNR
BEN WILSONWASHINGTON STATELB★3★3
JOHN STEPHENS JR.LOUISIANAWR★3UNR
DYLAN THOMASNORTHERN COLORADOWR★3★3
BRANDON BOWENINCARNATE WORDDT★4★4
GARRET WALLOWNFL DRAFT R5LB★3—
TREVON MOEHRIGNFL DRAFT R2S★3—
ARTAYVIOUS LYNNELIGIBILITY UPTE★3—
ELIAS GARCIA OLAGUEELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#61NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
3OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8744COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
623 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST86% BACK86th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG86% BACK86th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE