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HOME›TEAMS›TEXAS›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
SEC|STEVE SARKISIAN|—RECORD12-2|CONF—
TEXAS#3 AP 7 FPISEC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
96FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
87%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
78%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-15IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#318 BC / 26
BC RATIO
63%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
12-1ACTUALvs11.0-2.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+18.6
12 wins against a scoring profile describing 11.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE81
PERFORMANCE81
TALENT90
CONTINUITY87
DEFENSE84
PERFORMANCE84
TALENT81
CONTINUITY78
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
64MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
6 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HRICE—W 37-10282323+73BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9AALABAMA#5W 34-241009595+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HWYOMING—W 31-10114242+54BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23ABAYLOR—W 38-6672727+69BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HKANSAS#23W 40-14558282+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HOKLAHOMA#15L 30-34948888+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AHOUSTON—W 31-24652929+67BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HBYU—W 35-6474343+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HKANSAS STATE#18W 33-30519090+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11ATCU—W 29-26877474+22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AIOWA STATE—W 26-16577272+24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24HTEXAS TECH—W 57-7726868+28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 2HOKLAHOMA STATE#16W 49-21606969+27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 1AWASHINGTON#2L 31-37829191+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB39TAL100PERF39RET85ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
QUINN EWERSQB JURET
★5—9485%+4—
6
MAALIK MURPHYQB SERET
★4★45414%-24HELD
16
ARCH MANNINGQB JUNO SNAPS
★5—171%——
14
CHARLES WRIGHTQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
19
COLE LOURDQB SERET
★3—00%——
18
JOE TATUMQB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾RB69TAL86PERF69RET67ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 22 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
24
JONATHON BROOKSRB SORET
★4—9440%+26—
1
CJ BAXTERRB SENO SNAPS
★5★38931%-10FELL
23
JAYDON BLUERB JURET
★4—7318%+12—
7
KEILAN ROBINSONRB SERET
★5★3495%+28FELL
0
SAVION REDRB SERET
★3★3474%-30HELD
5
QUINTREVION WISNERRB SENO SNAPS
★3★4282%+35ROSE
25
KY WOODSRB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
27
COLIN PAGERB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE73TAL93PERF72RET79ONE OWNERn=5 · 8 METRICS · 36 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
JA'TAVION SANDERSTE JURET
★5—9955%——
1
XAVIER WORTHYWR JURET
★4—9937%+24—
5
ADONAI MITCHELLWR JUPORTAL · GEORGIA
★4★59734%+23ROSE
85
GUNNAR HELMTE SERET
★3—9139%+52—
13
JORDAN WHITTINGTONWR SERET
★5—8423%-11—
81
JUAN DAVISTE SERET
★3★3454%—HELD
0
JOHNTAY COOK IIWR SENO SNAPS
★5★3433%—FELL
2
CASEY CAINWR SERET
★3★3301%-1HELD
3
DEANDRE MOORE JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★4★4251%—HELD
48
PATRICK BAYOUTHTE SERET
★3—241%——
18
ISAIAH NEYORWR SERET
★2★3100%+26ROSE
86
PAXTON ANDERSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
87
WILL RANDLETE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
49
THATCHER MILTONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
21
RYAN NIBLETTWR JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
83
SPENCER SHANNONTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
36
QUINN MERRITTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
38
REMY PATSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
39
HAMILTON MCMARTINWR SERET
UNR—00%——
82
GUS ASELTE SERET
UNR—00%——
84
REESE BEAUCHAMPWR SERET
UNR—00%——
35
RETT ANDERSENWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
48
BRYCE CHAMBERSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
TY BOATRIGHTWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL68TAL86PERF69RET99n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL71TAL80PERF71RET88n=10 · 7 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸LB69TAL72PERF69RET82n=6 · 11 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸DB52TAL88PERF52RET70n=11 · 8 METRICS · 62 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS21 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ARCH MANNINGHS RECRUITQB★5UNR
ANTHONY HILL JR.HS RECRUITLB★5UNR
CJ BAXTERHS RECRUITRB★5UNR
JOHNTAY COOKHS RECRUITWR★5UNR
MALIK MUHAMMADHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
DEREK WILLIAMS JR.HS RECRUITS★4UNR
RYAN NIBLETTHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
JELANI MCDONALDHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
DEANDRE MOORE JR.HS RECRUITWR★4UNR
COLTON VASEKHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN4 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ADONAI MITCHELLGEORGIAWR★4★5
GAVIN HOLMESWAKE FORESTCB★3★4
JALEN CATALONARKANSASSUNR★4
TRILL CARTERMINNESOTADL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT26 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
OVIE OGHOUFOLSUDE★3★3
JAMIER JOHNSONINDIANADB★4★4
ANDREJ KARICTENNESSEEOL★4★3
HUDSON CARDPURDUEQB★4★4
DEVIN RICHARDSONWASHINGTON STATELB★3★3
PRINCE DORBAHARIZONA STATEDL★4★3
JD COFFEY IIISAN DIEGO STATES★4UNR
D.J. HARRISSOUTH FLORIDAFB★4UNR
LOGAN PARRSMUOL★4★3
BRENEN THOMPSONOKLAHOMAWR★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES79%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS17%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#3NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
18OF 26 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9246COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
520 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST56% BACK56th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG56% BACK56th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR85%85th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST70%70th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE