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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SEC|STEVE SARKISIAN|—RECORD13-3|CONF—
TEXAS#4 AP 1 FPISEC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
98FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
76%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
73%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-15IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#619 BC / 23
BC RATIO
73%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs11.9-1.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+21.2
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 11.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE84
PERFORMANCE84
TALENT92
CONTINUITY76
DEFENSE99
PERFORMANCE99
TALENT91
CONTINUITY73
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE16 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
70MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
5 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HCOLORADO STATE—W 52-0303030+65BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7AMICHIGAN—W 31-12898181+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HUTSA—W 56-7525353+42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HUL MONROE—W 51-3699+86BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HMISSISSIPPI STATE—W 35-13763535+60BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AOKLAHOMA—W 34-3957676+19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HGEORGIA#6L 15-30999696-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26AVANDERBILT—W 27-24646262+33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HFLORIDA—W 49-17928686+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AARKANSAS—W 20-10828383+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HKENTUCKY—W 31-14836666+29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30ATEXAS A&M—W 17-7969191+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
15DEC 7HGEORGIA#6L 19-22999696-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 21HCLEMSON#14W 38-24978484+11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 1AARIZONA STATE#7W 39-31797474+21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 10HOHIO STATE#1L 14-2899100100-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB55TAL100PERF55RET99ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
QUINN EWERSQB JURET
★5—9782%+7—
16
ARCH MANNINGQB JURET
★5—6317%+22—
9
TREY OWENSQB JUNO SNAPS
★4★3111%—FELL
19
COLE LOURDQB SERET
★3—00%——
18
JOE TATUMQB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾RB71TAL94PERF71RET85ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 22 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
QUINTREVION WISNERRB SERET
★3★49950%-10ROSE
23
JAYDON BLUERB JURET
★4—9436%+16—
4
JERRICK GIBSONRB SONO SNAPS
★4★36610%+13FELL
22
COLIN PAGERB SERET
UNR—362%+8—
21
RYAN NIBLETTRB JURET
★4—291%——
24
VELTON GARDNERRB SENO SNAPS
★3—221%-33—
5
REID WATKINSRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—120%——
4
CJ BAXTERRB SERET
★5★300%-10FELL
6
CHRISTIAN CLARKRB SONO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
▾WR/TE73TAL87PERF73RET43ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
85
GUNNAR HELMTE SERET
★3—10063%+42—
2
MATTHEW GOLDENWR JUPORTAL · HOUSTON
★4★49830%+18HELD
3
DEANDRE MOORE JR.WR SERET
★4★48820%0HELD
7
ISAIAH BONDWR JUPORTAL · ALABAMA
★4★58619%+8ROSE
1
RYAN WINGOWR JUNO SNAPS
★4—8519%+6—
81
JUAN DAVISTE SERET
★3★38425%-45HELD
11
SILAS BOLDENWR SEPORTAL · OREGON STATE
★3★4648%+28ROSE
84
AMARI NIBLACKTE SEPORTAL · ALABAMA
★4★4516%+29HELD
0
JOHNTAY COOK IIWR SERET
★5★3513%+20FELL
83
SPENCER SHANNONTE JURET
★3—464%——
80
JORDAN WASHINGTONTE SONO SNAPS
★4★3342%—FELL
3
PARKER LIVINGSTONEWR SONO SNAPS
★4★4110%—HELD
49
THATCHER MILTONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
87
WILL RANDLETE JURET
★3—00%——
14
AARON BUTLERWR SONO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
80
FREDDIE DUBOSEWR FRTRUE FR
★4★300%—FELL
36
QUINN MERRITTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
38
REMY PATSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
39
HAMILTON MCMARTINWR SERET
UNR—00%——
84
REESE BEAUCHAMPWR SERET
UNR—00%——
82
RIDGE BARKERTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
35
RETT ANDERSENWR SERET
UNR—00%——
48
BRYCE CHAMBERSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
89
TY BOATRIGHTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
86
HUDSON POWELLWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL69TAL89PERF69RET98n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL80TAL87PERF80RET49n=11 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
▸LB88TAL90PERF88RET78n=6 · 11 METRICS · 38 OBS
▸DB74TAL93PERF74RET81n=9 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
COLIN SIMMONSHS RECRUITEDGE★5UNR
BRANDON BAKERHS RECRUITOT★5UNR
KOBE BLACKHS RECRUITCB★5UNR
XAVIER FILSAIMEHS RECRUITS★5UNR
RYAN WINGOHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
JERRICK GIBSONHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
AARON BUTLERHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
WARDELL MACKHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
ZINA UMEOZULUHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
JORDON JOHNSON-RUBELLHS RECRUITS★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ISAIAH BONDALABAMAWR★4★5
ANDREW MUKUBACLEMSONS★4★4
TREY MOOREUTSAEDGE★4★4
AMARI NIBLACKALABAMATE★4★4
MATTHEW GOLDENHOUSTONWR★4★4
SILAS BOLDENOREGON STATEWR★3★4
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT30 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TERRANCE BROOKSILLINOISDB★4★4
JERRIN THOMPSONAUBURNS★4★3
KITAN CRAWFORDNEVADAS★4★3
TRILL CARTERAUBURNDL★3★3
JALEN CATALONUNLVDB★4UNR
J'MOND TAPPARIZONA STATEDL★4★3
MAALIK MURPHYDUKEQB★4★4
KRIS ROSSNEVADADL★4UNR
SAVION REDNEVADARB★3★3
AUSTIN JORDANTCUS★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES47%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS80%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#6NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
19OF 23 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9205COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1025 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
28TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
11
6
3
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.3 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +4 W
IMPROVED7 OF 28
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST56% BACK56th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG56% BACK56th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR98%98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST81%81th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE