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● LIVE|2023 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
SUN BELT|JON SUMRALL|—RECORD11-3|CONF—
TROY45 FPISBC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
27FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
67%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#940 BC / 19
BC RATIO
6%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs10.5-2.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+14.0
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 10.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE48
PERFORMANCE48
TALENT51
CONTINUITY67
DEFENSE91
PERFORMANCE91
TALENT41
CONTINUITY80
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
50MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HSTEPHEN F. AUSTIN—W 48-30————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9AKANSAS STATE#18L 13-42519090-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HJAMES MADISON—L 14-1658686-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HWESTERN KENTUCKY—W 27-24364545+36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30AGEORGIA STATE—W 28-7373434+47BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HARKANSAS STATE—W 37-3343737+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14AARMY—W 19-014141+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28ATEXAS STATE—W 31-13324747+34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HSOUTH ALABAMA—W 28-10426464+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AUL MONROE—W 45-141022+79BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HLOUISIANA—W 31-24315353+28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25ASOUTHERN MISS—W 35-17231313+68BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14DEC 2HAPP STATE—W 49-23396161+20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 23ADUKE—L 10-17527878+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB45TAL41PERF45RET96ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
GUNNAR WATSONQB SERET
★3—9696%+16—
9
GOOSE CROWDERQB SENO SNAPS
★3—284%——
10
TUCKER KILCREASEQB SERET
★3—00%——
10
JAMESON HOLCOMBQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
13
JD SHERRODQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB56TAL66PERF56RET89ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
28
KIMANI VIDALRB JURET
★3—9969%+4—
12
DAMIEN TAYLORRB SERET
★3★36817%-2HELD
20
ASA MARTINRB SEPORTAL · MEMPHIS
★4★3558%+29FELL
4
JARRIS WILLIAMSRB SERET
★3—424%+13—
1
JORDAN LOVETTRB SENO SNAPS
★3—302%-40—
21
TAE MEADOWSRB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
15
JORDON INGRAMRB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
26
DEWHITT BETTERSON JR.RB SERET
UNR—00%——
38
CHRISTIAN NUNNERYRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
49
TYCE KHATRIFB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE52TAL66PERF56RET65ONE OWNERn=9 · 7 METRICS · 46 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
89
CLAYTON OLLENDIECKTE SERET
UNR—9450%+44—
1
JABRE BARBERWR SERET
★2★39326%+33ROSE
6
CHRIS LEWISWR JUPORTAL · KENTUCKY
★4★49125%+34HELD
11
DESHON STOUDEMIREWR SERET
★3—8118%+19—
7
DEVONTE ROSSWR SORET
★3—7817%-2—
14
ETHAN CONNERTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—7225%+30—
89
BRODY DALTONTE SENO SNAPS
★3★36114%—HELD
1
LANDON PARKERWR SEPORTAL · WOFFORD
UNR★2597%-13EMERGED
2
DEYUNKREA LEWISTE JURET
★3★35510%+43HELD
2
PEYTON HIGGINSWR SERET
★3—535%+26—
4
MARCUS ROGERSWR SERET
★2—412%-13—
85
FABIAN ROGOSCHTE SERET
UNR—251%——
44
ALEX CASHTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—110%——
88
JACKSON WORLEYTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
84
CALEB CHAPPELLEWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
12
MJ JOHNSONWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
25
ROBERT MARSHWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
ROBERT BRUCEWR JURET
UNR—00%——
18
DJ EPPSWR SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
82
JACKSON THOMASWR SORET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
21
LUCAS HARKLESSWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
27
TJ BOOKERWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL54TAL42PERF55RET58n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL72TAL49PERF72RET74n=9 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸LB67TAL28PERF67RET90n=9 · 10 METRICS · 36 OBS
▸DB59TAL45PERF59RET76n=7 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JACK TCHIENCHOUHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
CHRIS RODGERSHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
LJ GREENHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JACKSON THOMASHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MALAKI PEGUESHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
TYLER BELLHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JACKSON WORLEYHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JD SHERRODHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
KEYSHAWN CAMPBELLHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
COLTON WALLSHS RECRUITATHUNRUNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ASA MARTINMEMPHISRB★4★3
CHRIS LEWISKENTUCKYWR★4★4
COLBY SMITHAUBURNOT★3★3
JARRET DOEGEWESTERN KENTUCKYQBUNR★3
REGGIE BRACYIOWACB★3★3
ELI RUSSOKLAHOMA STATEOT★3★3
WILL CROWDERWEST VIRGINIAQBUNR★3
LANDON PARKERWOFFORDWRUNR★2
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT31 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TEZ JOHNSONOREGONWR★3★3
MICHAEL VICESAMFORDTE★2UNR
AJ LEWISALABAMA STATETEUNRUNR
TIM STEWARDJACKSON STATELBUNRUNR
DEMONTREZ BROWNALABAMA STATEWR★3UNR
AUSTIN STIDHAMELIGIBILITY UPOL★2—
DEANDRE BUTLERELIGIBILITY UPOL★2—
CRAIG SLOCUM JR.ELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
TJ HARRISELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
CARLTON MARTIALELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES38%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS51%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#94NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 19 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8427COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
89 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
32TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
8
9
5
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-6 TO +5 W
IMPROVED11 OF 32
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST67% BACK67th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG67% BACK67th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR58%58th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR96%96th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST76%76th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE