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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SUN BELT|GERAD PARKER|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
TROY99 FPISBC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
18FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
43%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
55%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-13IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#890 BC / 21
BC RATIO
6%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.4-6.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-2.4
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE40
PERFORMANCE40
TALENT70
CONTINUITY43
DEFENSE40
PERFORMANCE40
TALENT39
CONTINUITY55
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
42MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HNEVADA—L 26-28231313+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7AMEMPHIS#24L 17-38487777-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14AIOWA—L 21-38728989-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HFLORIDA A&M—W 34-12————NON-FBS OPPONENT
5SEP 28HUL MONROE—L 9-13699+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 3HTEXAS STATE—L 17-38286565-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 15ASOUTH ALABAMA—L 9-25325555-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26AARKANSAS STATE—L 31-34382323+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HCOASTAL CAROLINA—W 38-24342727+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 28-20244444-15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23ALOUISIANA—L 30-51316161-32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HSOUTHERN MISS—W 52-203511+28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB53TAL38PERF53RET20ONE OWNERn=3 · 7 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
MATTHEW CALDWELLQB SENO SNAPS
UNR★37462%+12EMERGED
9
GOOSE CROWDERQB SERET
★3—5820%+41—
10
TUCKER KILCREASEQB SERET
★3—5618%+12—
8
CALEB MCCREARYQB SONO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
16
MONTANA WELLSQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB67TAL72PERF67RET63ONE OWNERn=2 · 5 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
DAMIEN TAYLORRB SERET
★3★38953%+15HELD
0
GERALD GREENRB SEPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
★2★38137%+9ROSE
1
JORDAN LOVETTRB SERET
★3—518%-53—
21
TAE MEADOWSRB SERET
★3★3121%—HELD
4
JARRIS WILLIAMSRB SERET
★3—91%+2—
26
DEWHITT BETTERSON JR.RB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE46TAL57PERF46RET70ROTATIONn=8 · 7 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
DEVONTE ROSSWR SORET
★3—9538%-1—
89
BRODY DALTONTE SERET
★3★39038%+30HELD
89
TRAE SWARTZTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—7926%-36—
2
PEYTON HIGGINSWR SERET
★3—7822%+5—
1
LANDON PARKERWR SERET
UNR★27520%+16EMERGED
8
ZERIAH BEASONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—6613%+6—
88
JACKSON WORLEYTE SERET
★3—6414%——
14
ETHAN CONNERTE SERET
UNR—6313%+7—
85
FABIAN ROGOSCHTE SERET
UNR—538%——
5
MOJO DORTCHWR SENO SNAPS
★4★4484%—HELD
82
ROMAN MOTHERSHEDWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR★3383%—EMERGED
49
TYCE KHATRITE FRRET
UNR—211%——
2
DJ EPPSWR SERET
UNR★370%—EMERGED
2
JYWON BOYDWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
5
DEVONTE ROSSWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%-6HELD
84
CALEB CHAPPELLEWR JURET
UNR—00%——
81
ROBERT BRUCEWR JURET
UNR—00%——
82
JACKSON THOMASWR SORET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
42
CHAD BARHAMTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
13
KY MCNULTYWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
24
IAN SENNWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
38
TYLER GEARYTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
44
BROOKS MAUKTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
6
CHRIS LEWISWR JURET
★4★400%+34HELD
▸OL36TAL86PERF36RET34n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL36TAL48PERF36RET53n=7 · 7 METRICS · 41 OBS
▸LB50TAL27PERF50RET62n=6 · 11 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸DB35TAL38PERF35RET38n=8 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KEION DUNLAPHS RECRUITS★3UNR
SHEMAR WELCHHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
EJ HALLHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
KEVIN NORWOODHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
TRASHUN GRIFFINHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
CALEB MCCREARYHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JERMAINE PARAMOREHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
KAM WEAVERHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
MARLIN ODOMHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JYWON BOYDHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GERALD GREENEAST CAROLINARB★2★3
TRENT HENRYGRAMBLINGCB★3★3
DEVIN LAFAYETTENORTHERN ILLINOISS★3★3
BRENDAN JACKSONGARDNER-WEBBLBUNR★3
JAH-MAL WILLIAMSCINCINNATIEDGE★3★3
JORDAN PERRYKANSAS STATELB★3★3
CECIL POWELLNC STATES★3★3
MARQUEZ DORTCHCALIFORNIAWRUNR★4
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT36 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DERRICK GRAHAMTULANEOL★2UNR
BLAKE AUSTINWESTERN KENTUCKYOL★2★3
CALEB RANSAWTULANES★2★3
JAYDEN MCDONALDUCONNLB★3★3
KEYSHAWN SWANSONWESTERN KENTUCKYDB★3★3
T.J. JACKSONWEST VIRGINIADL★3★3
JABRE BARBERTEXAS A&MWR★2★3
ZACH EDWARDSWESTERN KENTUCKYDE★3★3
CHRIS RODGERSTULANELB★3★3
DESHAUN BATISTETULANEDBUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES78%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS57%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#89NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8333COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1023 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST17% BACK17th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG17% BACK17th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR34%34th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR20%20th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST38%38th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE