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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|JON SUMRALL|—RECORD11-3|CONF—
TULANE#18 AP 53 FPIAAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
51FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
52%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
60%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#740 BC / 20
BC RATIO
7%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs8.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.5
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE53
PERFORMANCE53
TALENT52
CONTINUITY52
DEFENSE50
PERFORMANCE50
TALENT51
CONTINUITY60
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
54MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HNORTHWESTERN—W 23-3596363+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6ASOUTH ALABAMA—W 33-31261616+51BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HDUKE—W 34-27586868-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20AOLE MISS#3L 10-45859696-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27ATULSA—W 31-14392424+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 9HEAST CAROLINA—W 26-19447373-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HARMY—W 24-1714646+21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10OCT 30AUTSA—L 26-48535555+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 7AMEMPHIS—W 38-32587272-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HFLORIDA ATLANTIC—W 35-24412828+39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ATEMPLE—W 37-13183636+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HCHARLOTTE—W 27-02211+66BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 5HNORTH TEXAS#24W 34-21318484-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 20AOLE MISS#3L 10-41859696-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB54TAL88PERF54RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
JAKE RETZLAFFQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR★49290%+15EMERGED
6
BRENDAN SULLIVANQB SEPORTAL · IOWA
★3★35310%+35HELD
10
DONOVAN LEARYQB JUPORTAL · ILLINOIS
★3★300%—HELD
3
KADIN SEMONZAQB JUPORTAL · BALL STATE
★3★300%+20HELD
21
JAKSON JUDGEQB JURET
UNR—00%——
14
DAGAN BRUNOQB SORET
UNR—00%——
17
JAY BEAMONQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
12
CADE SCOTTQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB47TAL54PERF47RET34ROTATIONn=5 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
JAVIN GORDONRB SONO SNAPS
★3★39244%-43HELD
25
JAMAURI MCCLURERB SORET
★3—7220%+31—
3
ARNOLD BARNES IIIRB SERET
★3★36414%-6—
2
ZUBERI MOBLEYRB SEPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
★3★36212%+10HELD
0
MAURICE TURNERRB SEPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
★3★35910%-16HELD
43
GABE MOCEKRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE58TAL58PERF62RET41ROTATIONn=10 · 7 METRICS · 57 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
82
JOHNNY PASCUZZITE SEPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
UNR★39040%-1EMERGED
7
SHAZZ PRESTONWR SERET
★4★38823%+29FELL
5
ANTHONY BROWN-STEPHENSWR SENO SNAPS
★3—8521%+5—
85
JUSTYN REIDTE SEPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
★3★38433%+24HELD
85
ANTHONY MILLERTE SERET
★3★37927%-35HELD
83
BRYCE BOHANONWR SERET
★3—7515%+8—
9
OMARI HAYESWR SEPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
UNR★37012%+35EMERGED
1
ZYCARL LEWIS JR.WR SORET
★3—6911%+24—
11
TRE SHACKELFORDWR SEPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
★3★3648%+20HELD
7
JIMMY CALLOWAYWR SEPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
★4★3585%-34FELL
16
GARRETT MMAHATWR SERET
UNR—483%——
17
OLIVER MITCHELL JR.WR SONO SNAPS
★3—271%——
86
GABE LOVORNTE FRTRUE FR
★3—90%——
9
LERON HUSBANDSTE JUPORTAL · MARYLAND
★3★390%—HELD
10
KELLEN TASBYWR SORET
★3—00%——
89
DJ CICEROTE SORET
UNR—00%——
13
TY THOMPSONTE SERET
★4★300%—FELL
26
WALKER DAVISWR SORET
★3—00%——
84
ANTWAUN PARHAMWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
87
CAMERON ROBERTSTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
28
SETH GALEWR SORET
UNR—00%——
81
ERIK URBANIAKWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
39
JOHN BARTONWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
37
CASH SEMONZAWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL56TAL41PERF56RET65n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL49TAL55PERF50RET25n=10 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
▸LB54TAL53PERF54RET70n=8 · 11 METRICS · 54 OBS
▸DB39TAL46PERF40RET66n=9 · 8 METRICS · 56 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOSH LEWISHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
MICHAEL IGBINOGHENEHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JOSH SIMSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
WARREN ROBERTS JR.HS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ANTWAUN PARHAMHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JUELZ BAPTISTEHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
NIKOLAS ALSTONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JAVIN GORDONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CADE SCOTTHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
LANDON HAMMONDHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SANTANA HOPPERAPP STATEDL★3★3
JOHNNY PASCUZZIWEST VIRGINIATEUNR★3
BRENDAN SULLIVANIOWAQB★3★3
LJ GREENTROYCB★3★3
MAURICE TURNERLOUISVILLERB★3★3
KADIN SEMONZABALL STATEQB★3★3
TREVON MCALPINETEXAS TECHDLUNR★3
MO WESTMORELANDUTEPEDGEUNR★3
ISAIAH WADSWORTHWOFFORDCBUNR★3
MITCH HODNETTTCUIOL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT42 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RAYSHAWN PLEASANTAUBURNCB★3★3
ALEX BAUMANMIAMITE★3★3
MAKHI HUGHESOREGONRB★3★3
MATTHEW FOBBS-WHITEBAYLORDE★3★3
DARIAN MENSAHDUKEQB★2★4
ADONIS FRILOUXBAYLORDL★3★3
PARKER PETERSENWISCONSINDL★3★3
DESHAUN BATISTEFLORIDA ATLANTICDBUNR★3
MICHAEL LUNZSOUTH CAROLINA STATELB★3★3
JOSHUA GOINESNEW MEXICO STATETE★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES72%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS87%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#74NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8562COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3027 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST20% BACK20th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG20% BACK20th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR65%65th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST66%66th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE