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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG TEN|LINCOLN RILEY|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
USC18 FPIB1G · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
90FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
86%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
51%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-13IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1713 BC / 25
BC RATIO
46%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-5
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.3
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE83
PERFORMANCE83
TALENT88
CONTINUITY86
DEFENSE68
PERFORMANCE68
TALENT84
CONTINUITY51
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
68MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1ALSU—W 27-20948989-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HUTAH STATE—W 48-0292121+62BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21AMICHIGAN—L 24-27898181+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HWISCONSIN—W 38-21815656+27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5AMINNESOTA—L 17-24688080+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HPENN STATE#5L 30-33939797-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19AMARYLAND—L 28-29643636+47BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HRUTGERS—W 42-20586969+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2AWASHINGTON—L 21-26755757+26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HNEBRASKA—W 28-20846666+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AUCLA—W 19-13804444+39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HNOTRE DAME#2L 35-49939595-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27HTEXAS A&M—W 35-31969191-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB88TAL92PERF88RET68ONE OWNERn=2 · 5 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
MILLER MOSSQB SERET
★4★48568%+28HELD
14
JAYDEN MAIAVAQB SEPORTAL · UNLV
★3★46932%+30ROSE
16
JAKE JENSENQB SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
28
GAGE ROYQB JURET
UNR—00%——
26
DYLAN GEBBIAQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
29
JACK STUPINQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB57TAL88PERF57RET25ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
WOODY MARKSRB SEPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
★4★49966%+16HELD
0
QUINTEN JOYNERRB SERET
★4★47520%+35HELD
21
BRYAN JACKSON IIRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3588%+18—
28
A'MARION PETERSONRB JURET
★4★3475%+36FELL
41
CIAN MCKELVEYRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
30
KING MILLERRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE55TAL84PERF58RET83ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
KYRON HUDSONWR SERET
★3—9020%-19—
1
ZACHARIAH BRANCHWR JURET
★4★48919%+10HELD
8
JA'KOBI LANEWR JURET
★4—8919%+5—
87
LAKE MCREETE SERET
★3—8854%+8—
6
MAKAI LEMONWR JURET
★4—8115%+34—
0
DUCE ROBINSONWR SERET
★5★47412%+18FELL
81
KYLE FORDWR SEPORTAL · UCLA
★4★37311%+12FELL
44
KADE ELDRIDGETE JURET
★3★36624%-45HELD
7
WALKER LYONSTE JUNO SNAPS
★4★46522%-53HELD
9
JAY FAIRWR SEPORTAL · AUBURN
★3★3452%+2HELD
4
CHARLES ROSSWR SEPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
★3★3200%+11HELD
15
JADEN RICHARDSONWR SEPORTAL · TUFTS UNIVERSITY
UNR★3180%—EMERGED
44
JOSIAH ZAMORAWR SERET
UNR—70%——
4
JOEY OLSENTE JUNO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
86
CJ WOODSTE SERET
UNR—00%——
86
ASANTE DASWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
24
CARSON TABARACCITE SERET
★3—00%——
23
WALTER MATTHEWSTE SONO SNAPS
★4—00%——
19
DJ JORDANWR FRTRUE FR
UNR★300%——
46
COREY NERHUSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
82
SETH ZAMORAWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
DONOVAN WOODWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
COLLIN FASSEWR FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
90
BRADY JUNGWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL61TAL89PERF61RET97n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL36TAL79PERF36RET62n=12 · 8 METRICS · 63 OBS
▸LB29TAL90PERF29RET54n=6 · 11 METRICS · 31 OBS
▸DB56TAL84PERF56RET41n=10 · 8 METRICS · 60 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KAMERYN CRAWFORDHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
DJ JORDANHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
JASON ZANDAMELAHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
MARCELLES WILLIAMSHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
WALTER MATTHEWSHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
ELIJAH NEWBYHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
CARLON JONESHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
JOEY OLSENHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
JIDE ABASIRIHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
MARQUIS GALLEGOSHS RECRUITS★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KAMARI RAMSEYUCLAS★4★4
EASTON MASCARENAS-ARNOLDOREGON STATELB★3★4
JAYDEN MAIAVAUNLVQB★3★4
NATE CLIFTONVANDERBILTDL★3★4
WOODY MARKSMISSISSIPPI STATERB★4★4
AKILI ARNOLDOREGON STATES★3★3
JADEN RICHARDSONTUFTS UNIVERSITYWRUNR★3
JOHN HUMPHREYUCLACB★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT40 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DOMANI JACKSONALABAMADB★4★4
TACKETT CURTISWISCONSINLB★4★3
MICHAEL TARQUINOKLAHOMAOL★4★3
STANLEY TA'UFO'OUARIZONADL★3★3
ROMELLO HEIGHTGEORGIA TECHLB★4★4
DORIAN SINGERUTAHWR★3★4
CEYAIR WRIGHTNEBRASKADB★4★3
MARIO WILLIAMSTULANEWR★4★4
MICHAEL JACKSON IIIGEORGIAWR★4★3
TRE'QUON FEGANSUCFCB★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES90%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS71%12 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#17NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
13OF 25 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9015COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1629 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST20% BACK20th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG20% BACK20th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR96%96th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR68%68th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST41%41th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE