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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG TEN|LINCOLN RILEY|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
USC#20 AP 13 FPIB1G · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
88FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
73%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
71%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-13IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1413 BC / 28
BC RATIO
49%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
9-3ACTUALvs9.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+14.1
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE95
PERFORMANCE95
TALENT77
CONTINUITY73
DEFENSE63
PERFORMANCE63
TALENT82
CONTINUITY71
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
62MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
5 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HMISSOURI STATE—W 73-1372121+68BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 59-20332424+65BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13APURDUE—W 33-17613434+55BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HMICHIGAN STATE—W 45-31734040+49BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27AILLINOIS—L 32-34548383+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HMICHIGAN#21W 31-13938282+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18ANOTRE DAME#10L 24-34949797-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1ANEBRASKA—W 21-17866666+23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 7HNORTHWESTERN—W 38-17596363+26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HIOWA#17W 26-21709292-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AOREGON#4L 27-42979898-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HUCLA—W 29-10822828+61BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 30ATCU#25L 27-30777373+16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB76TAL92PERF76RET95ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
14
JAYDEN MAIAVAQB SERET
★3★49295%+33ROSE
8
HUSAN LONGSTREETQB FRTRUE FR
★5★4365%—FELL
7
SAM HUARDQB SEPORTAL · UTAH
★5★300%-52FELL
28
GAGE ROYQB JURET
UNR—00%——
26
DYLAN GEBBIAQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB54TAL42PERF54RET12ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
KING MILLERRB SORET
★3—9448%+28—
2
WAYMOND JORDANRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—7522%+31—
1
ELI SANDERSRB SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO
★3★36414%+20HELD
21
BRYAN JACKSON IIRB JURET
★3★36112%-14—
25
HARRY DALTON IIIRB FRTRUE FR
★4★3312%—FELL
27
RILEY WORMLEYRB FRTRUE FR
★3—272%——
41
CIAN MCKELVEYRB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE74TAL86PERF75RET79ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 39 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
87
LAKE MCREETE SERET
★3—9759%+19—
6
MAKAI LEMONWR JURET
★4—9232%+32—
8
JA'KOBI LANEWR JURET
★4—8728%+21—
7
WALKER LYONSTE JURET
★4★48030%-7HELD
16
TANOOK HINESWR SONO SNAPS
★4—8022%+28—
15
JADEN RICHARDSONWR SERET
UNR★3597%+19EMERGED
88
TANIELA TUPOUTE FRTRUE FR
★3—506%——
0
ZACHARYUS WILLIAMSWR SOPORTAL · UTAH
★3★3484%-5HELD
24
CARSON TABARACCITE SERET
★3—434%——
9
JAY FAIRWR SERET
★3★3423%-6HELD
19
DJ JORDANWR FRRET
UNR★3342%——
10
COREY SIMMSWR SONO SNAPS
★4—281%——
44
JOSIAH ZAMORAWR SERET
UNR—201%——
4
JOEY OLSENTE JURET
★4★3171%—FELL
17
PRINCE STRACHANWR JUPORTAL · BOISE STATE
★3★360%+29HELD
23
WALTER MATTHEWSTE SORET
★4—00%——
4
DJ JORDANWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★300%——
86
ASANTE DASWR SERET
UNR—00%——
46
COREY NERHUSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
84
ROMERO ISONWR FRTRUE FR
★4—00%——
82
SETH ZAMORAWR SORET
UNR—00%——
83
DONOVAN WOODWR SERET
UNR—00%——
89
COLLIN FASSEWR FRRET
★2—00%——
90
BRADY JUNGWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
49
FISHER MELTONTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
81
CAMERON SERMONSWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL51TAL72PERF51RET75n=8 · 3 METRICS · 24 OBS
▸DL65TAL93PERF65RET73n=10 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
▸LB54TAL76PERF54RET78n=5 · 10 METRICS · 31 OBS
▸DB63TAL76PERF63RET66n=11 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
HUSAN LONGSTREETHS RECRUITQB★5UNR
JAHKEEM STEWARTHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
MATAI TAGOA'IHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
RJ SERMONSHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
AARON DUNNHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
ALEX PAYNEHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
TRESTIN CASTROHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
KENDARIUS REDDICKHS RECRUITS★4UNR
COREY SIMMSHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
ROMERO ISONHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KEESHAWN SILVERKENTUCKYDL★5★4
DJ WINGFIELDPURDUEIOLUNR★4
JAMAAL JARRETTGEORGIADL★4★4
J'ONRE REEDSYRACUSEIOLUNR★4
TA'MERE ROBINSONPENN STATELB★4★3
BISHOP FITZGERALDNC STATESUNR★3
CHASEN JOHNSONUCFCB★3★3
DJ HARVEYSAN JOSÉ STATECB★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT33 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EMMANUEL PREGNONOREGONOLUNR★4
MASON MURPHYAUBURNOL★4★4
MILLER MOSSLOUISVILLEQB★4★4
KYRON HUDSONPENN STATEWR★3UNR
ZACHARIAH BRANCHGEORGIAWR★4★4
ZION BRANCHGEORGIAS★4★3
SAM GREENEKENTUCKYLB★3★3
DUCE ROBINSONFLORIDA STATEWR★5★4
KADE ELDRIDGEWASHINGTONTE★3★3
SOLOMON TULIAUPUPUMONTANALB★4★4
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES84%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS59%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#14NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
13OF 28 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8993COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1528 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST29% BACK29th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG29% BACK29th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR75%75th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR95%95th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST66%66th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE