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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG 12|KYLE WHITTINGHAM|—RECORD11-2|CONF—
UTAH#14 AP 8 FPIB12 · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
69FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
60%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
78%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-12IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#401 BC / 25
BC RATIO
18%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
10-2ACTUALvs10.4-1.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+22.4
10 wins against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE99
PERFORMANCE99
TALENT76
CONTINUITY60
DEFENSE87
PERFORMANCE87
TALENT79
CONTINUITY78
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
54MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30AUCLA—W 43-10822828+67BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HCAL POLY—W 63-9————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13AWYOMING—W 31-6151919+76BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HTEXAS TECH#7L 10-34809999-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27AWEST VIRGINIA—W 48-14553232+63BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HARIZONA STATE—W 42-10775656+39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18ABYU#11L 21-24508787+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HCOLORADO—W 53-7793030+65BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HCINCINNATI—W 45-14475959+36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15ABAYLOR—W 55-28754848+47BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HKANSAS STATE—W 51-47667070+25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 28AKANSAS—W 31-21665757+38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 31HNEBRASKA—W 44-22866666+29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB83TAL77PERF83RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
DEVON DAMPIERQB SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO
★3★38589%+6HELD
15
BYRD FICKLINQB SONO SNAPS
★3—5110%+32—
16
ISAAC WILSONQB JURET
★4★350%-22FELL
14
BRENDAN ZURBRUGGQB FRPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
★3★300%—HELD
16
DREW COWARTQB SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▾RB65TAL80PERF65RET0ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 20 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
WAYSHAWN PARKERRB JUPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
★3★49151%+25ROSE
21
NAQUARI ROGERSRB SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO
★3★37527%+29HELD
5
DANIEL BRAYRB SONO SNAPS
★3—6719%+33—
25
BRYCE DUKERB SENO SNAPS
★3—394%+21—
27
RAYCINE GUILLORY JR.RB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%——
3
NATE JOHNSONRB SEPORTAL · VANDERBILT
★3★300%+36HELD
32
OMAR SHAHRB SORET
UNR—00%——
20
MATEAKI HELURB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
27
DEVIN GREENRB SOPORTAL · UNLV
★3★300%-37HELD
35
FRANKIE GOODSONRB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE68TAL83PERF61RET39ONE OWNERn=5 · 8 METRICS · 32 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
88
DALLEN BENTLEYTE SERET
UNR—9975%+28—
9
RYAN DAVISWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—8631%+30—
6
JJ BUCHANANWR SONO SNAPS
★3★48631%+26ROSE
12
LARRY SIMMONSWR SEPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
★3★37218%+23HELD
18
TOBIAS MERRIWEATHERWR SEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★4★36411%+28FELL
99
SEMI TAULANGATE SONO SNAPS
★3—549%——
10
HUNTER ANDREWSTE JURET
★3—527%-45—
2
CREED WHITTEMOREWR SEPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
★4★3526%-25FELL
5
OTTO TIATE SEPORTAL · UTAH STATE
★3★3466%-11HELD
44
SIONE MOTUAPUAKATE SONO SNAPS
★3—343%——
13
JUSTIN STEVENSONWR SEPORTAL · WYOMING
★3★3191%+6HELD
80
BRYSON BAKERWR SONO SNAPS
★3—181%——
33
KANA'I LOPESTE JURET
★3—40%——
19
LUCA CALDARELLAWR SERET
UNR—00%-48—
17
RAYSHAWN GLOVERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
31
MATT CLARKWR JURET
UNR—00%——
6
DAIDREN ZIPPERERWR SERET
★3—00%-5—
37
PEYTON RICEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
84
DREW CLEMENSTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
24
DIEZEL KAMOKUWR SORET
★2—00%——
83
DAYLIN CAAMANOWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
86
JACKSON BOLENDERWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
28
MANA CARVALHOWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
38
JUNIOR COUGHLINWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
85
BRODERICK REDDENTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
39
BRYAN SPOTWOODWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
87
MITCH NIELSENTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL81TAL72PERF81RET93n=7 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL57TAL75PERF57RET81n=10 · 8 METRICS · 56 OBS
▸LB66TAL83PERF66RET73n=7 · 11 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸DB54TAL80PERF54RET70n=10 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CYRUS POLUHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
CHRISTIAN THATCHERHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
RAYCINE GUILLORY JR.HS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JJ BUCHANANHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
KARSON KAUFUSIHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JASON STOKES JR.HS RECRUITCB★3UNR
BRYSON BAKERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
WYATT BECKERHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
NICK HALLOCKHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
MANNY FULLERHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
WAYSHAWN PARKERWASHINGTON STATERB★3★4
LARRY SIMMONSSOUTHERN MISSWR★3★3
CREED WHITTEMOREMISSISSIPPI STATEWR★4★3
BLAKE COTTONUC DAVISCBUNR★3
JC HARTAUBURNCB★3★3
TOBIAS MERRIWEATHERCALIFORNIAWR★4★3
DEVON DAMPIERNEW MEXICOQB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT40 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CAM CALHOUNALABAMACB★4★3
KEANU TANUVASABYUDT★3★3
CARSEN RYANBYUTE★4★3
SIMOTE PEPAWASHINGTONDL★3★3
SIONE FOTUHOUSTONLB★3★3
ZACHARYUS WILLIAMSUSCWR★3★3
LANDEN KINGDUKETE★3★3
DIJON STANLEYNEW MEXICO STATERB★4★3
BRANDON ROSEMASSACHUSETTSQB★3★3
QUIMARI SHEMWELLCALIFORNIADB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES84%12 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS94%15 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#40NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 25 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8663COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2133 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGANY — MERGEDQUARTERBACKANY — MERGED
19TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
0
4
5
3
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +3.5 W
FULL RANGE-3 TO +5 W
IMPROVED10 OF 19
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THIS PROFILE WAS TOO RARE TO STAND ALONE AND A BROADER CELL IS SHOWN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST30% BACK30th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG30% BACK30th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR93%93th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST70%70th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE