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HOME›TEAMS›UTAH STATE›2025TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
PAC-12|BRONCO MENDENHALL|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
UTAH STATE80 FPIPAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
18FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
36%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
41%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-14IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#870 BC / 28
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs6.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+3.5
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE44
PERFORMANCE44
TALENT32
CONTINUITY36
DEFENSE28
PERFORMANCE28
TALENT37
CONTINUITY41
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
48MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HUTEP—W 28-162755+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6ATEXAS A&M#8L 22-44959494-52BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HAIR FORCE—W 49-3004141+1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HMCNEESE—W 48-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
5SEP 27AVANDERBILT#15L 35-55619393-51BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AHAWAI'I—L 26-44135050-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 17HSAN JOSÉ STATE—W 30-25211313+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25ANEW MEXICO—L 14-3354747-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HNEVADA—W 51-14141515+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AUNLV—L 26-29645959-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AFRESNO STATE—W 28-17355151-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 28HBOISE STATE—L 24-25425353-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 22HWASHINGTON STATE—L 21-34315656-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB47TAL61PERF47RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
16
BRYSON BARNESQB SERET
UNR★39490%+1EMERGED
3
JACOB CONOVERQB SERET
★4★3529%-46FELL
12
CJ TILLERQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
KADEN COXQB FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▾RB54TAL11PERF54RET0ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
JAVEN JACOBSRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★39346%+32HELD
MILES DAVISRB SEPORTAL · BYU
★3★39043%+12HELD
23
NOAH WHITERB FRTRUE FR
UNR—5910%-52—
25
RAVIAN LARRYRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
28
NEHEMIAH WASHINGTONRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
22
DERRICK JAMESONRB SERET
UNR★300%+36EMERGED
20
TRE KOFERB FRRET
★2—00%——
CLYDE TAULAPAPARB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE32TAL38PERF37RET35ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
BRADY BOYDWR SEPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
★3★39943%+3HELD
7
BRADEN PEGANWR SEPORTAL · UCLA
★3★49841%+22ROSE
83
JOSH STERZERTE SERET
★2—8546%-11—
87
BROC LANETE SERET
★3—8242%-12—
7
KAHANU DAVISWR SERET
UNR—7014%-33—
18
KACHE KAIOTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—5712%——
81
NIKKO BONCOREWR FRTRUE FR
★3—352%——
1
ANTHONY GARCIAWR SEPORTAL · ARIZONA
★3★3201%—HELD
15
TY OLSENWR FRTRUE FR
★3—150%——
6
DEMICK STARLINGWR SEPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
★3★300%-33HELD
19
CHASE TUATAGALOATE JURET
★3—00%——
JACKSON OLSENWR SORET
★3—00%——
3
COREY THOMPSON JR.WR JUPORTAL · UNLV
UNR★300%-58EMERGED
20
TATE KJARWR FRRET
★3—00%——
11
KALEB MITCHELLWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
CARLOS ORR-GILLESPIEWR FRPORTAL · ILLINOIS
★3★300%—HELD
ALEX FAIIVAETE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
17
CADE BAKERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
KYLE LIVELYTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL34TAL22PERF34RET36n=6 · 3 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL26TAL20PERF26RET39n=7 · 7 METRICS · 37 OBS
▸LB42TAL58PERF42RET68n=5 · 11 METRICS · 54 OBS
▸DB43TAL36PERF43RET20n=8 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SAM BROUSSEAUHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
CHARGER DOTYHS RECRUITS★3UNR
KALEB MITCHELLHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MALAKAI ALOFIPOHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
NIKKO BONCOREHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TY OLSENHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
PAXTON NAEGLEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
REED OLSENHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
CHRIS JOEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
ABE JAGERHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CARLOS ORR-GILLESPIEILLINOISWR★3★3
TYREE MORRISLAFAYETTEDLUNR★3
ANTHONY GARCIAARIZONAQB★3★3
NAKI FAHINANEW MEXICO STATEDL★3★3
BRADY BOYDTEXAS TECHWR★3★3
DYLAN TUCKERELONCB★2★3
BREVIN HAMBLINUTAH TECHSUNR★3
DEMICK STARLINGWESTERN KENTUCKYWR★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT51 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TEAGUE ANDERSENNC STATEOL★3★3
ALOALI'I MAUISOUTHERN MISSOLUNR★3
JD DREWTULSACB★3★3
DJ GRAHAM IIKANSASDB★3UNR
CIAN SLONENC STATELBUNR★3
JAIDEN FRANCOISDUKELB★4★3
RAHSUL FAISONSOUTH CAROLINARB★2★4
OTTO TIAUTAHTE★3★3
AVANTE DICKERSONARKANSAS STATECB★4★4
JADON PEARSONFRESNO STATELB★2★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES79%10 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS87%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#87NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 28 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8286COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2438 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
26TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
0
5
9
7
5
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-3 TO +9 W
IMPROVED12 OF 26
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST67% BACK67th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG67% BACK67th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR36%36th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST20%20th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE