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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SEC|CLARK LEA|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
VANDERBILT39 FPISEC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
64FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
54%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
70%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-2IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#402 BC / 20
BC RATIO
13%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.0-5.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+3.6
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE74
PERFORMANCE74
TALENT68
CONTINUITY54
DEFENSE48
PERFORMANCE48
TALENT63
CONTINUITY70
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
70MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
5 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HVIRGINIA TECH—W 34-27637878-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HALCORN STATE—W 55-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14AGEORGIA STATE—L 32-363488+54BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21AMISSOURI#22L 27-30878686-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HALABAMA#17W 40-351009898-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AKENTUCKY—W 20-13836666-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HBALL STATE—W 24-141466+56BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HTEXAS#4L 24-27989595-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2AAUBURN—W 17-7887676-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HSOUTH CAROLINA#19L 7-28859090-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23ALSU—L 17-24948989-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HTENNESSEE#9L 23-36889494-32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27HGEORGIA TECH—W 35-27675151+11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB93TAL85PERF93RET0ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
DIEGO PAVIAQB SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
UNR★383100%+18EMERGED
12
BRENNAN STORERQB SORET
★3—00%——
7
DREW DICKEYQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
18
HAYDEN MOSESQB SERET
UNR—00%——
19
BLAZE BERLOWITZQB SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
UNR★300%—EMERGED
10
WHIT MUSCHAMPQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB64TAL67PERF64RET87ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
28
SEDRICK ALEXANDERRB SERET
★3—9470%0—
23
AJ NEWBERRYRB SERET
★3★36721%+27HELD
44
GABE FISHERFB SERET
UNR—476%——
13
CHASE GILLESPIERB SERET
★3★3426%-54HELD
3
NATE JOHNSONRB SEPORTAL · UTAH
★3★3253%+35HELD
33
JAMONI JONESRB SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
UNR★300%-56EMERGED
47
ISAIAH FONTANRB JURET
UNR—00%——
43
DOMINIC REZACRB SERET
UNR—00%——
34
JOHANN CARDENASRB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
42
JAKE BALISRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE66TAL73PERF58RET46ROTATIONn=6 · 8 METRICS · 37 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
ELI STOWERSTE SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
★4★39144%+34FELL
16
COLE SPENCETE SERET
★3—8737%-11—
0
JUNIOR SHERRILLWR SERET
★3—8631%+5—
3
QUINCY SKINNER JR.WR SERET
★3—8430%-8—
5
RICHIE HOSKINSWR SERET
UNR—7925%+2—
11
LOIC FOUONJIWR SEPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
★4★3578%+23FELL
45
EMMANUEL ADEBITE SENO SNAPS
UNR—507%——
5
TRISTEN BROWNWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—474%——
12
KAMREAN JOHNSONTE SERET
★3★3425%+42HELD
1
DARIYAN WILEYWR SENO SNAPS
★3★2302%-12FELL
9
BRYCEN COLEMANWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—151%——
15
JOSEPH MCVAYWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—70%——
13
BOSKI BARRETTWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★370%—HELD
87
TY BURDWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
LANDON WELLSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
15
JEREMIAH DILLONWR SEPORTAL · OLE MISS
★4★400%—HELD
81
HUTCH BAIRDWR SERET
UNR—00%——
86
WITT EDWARDSWR SONO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
83
DEREK KEEWR JURET
UNR—00%——
39
JACKSON HEISWR SORET
UNR—00%——
41
JAMEZELL LASSITERWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
48
LARRY BENTON IIITE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
49
ELIJAH ROONEYTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL50TAL64PERF50RET43n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL59TAL56PERF59RET58n=10 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB56TAL66PERF56RET86n=4 · 10 METRICS · 30 OBS
▸DB50TAL67PERF50RET60n=11 · 8 METRICS · 58 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DONTAE CARTERHS RECRUITS★4UNR
WITT EDWARDSHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
JOSEPH MCVAYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JOHANN CARDENASHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JEREMY ST-HILAIREHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
BOSKI BARRETTHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
BRYCEN COLEMANHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JAYLIN LACKEYHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
TATE HAMBYHS RECRUITS★3UNR
TRISTEN BROWNHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN11 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
NATE JOHNSONUTAHQB★3★4
ELI STOWERSNEW MEXICO STATETE★4★3
RANDON FONTENETTETCUS★4★3
MARLON JONES JR.EASTERN WASHINGTONCBUNR★3
LOIC FOUONJITEXAS TECHWR★4★3
DIEGO PAVIANEW MEXICO STATEQBUNR★3
MICAH BELLNOTRE DAMECBUNR★3
STEVEN LOSOYAMISSISSIPPI STATEIOL★3★3
ZAYLIN WOODMIDDLE TENNESSEEDL★3★3
BLAZE BERLOWITZNEW MEXICO STATEQBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT28 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
NATE CLIFTONUSCDT★3★4
ETHAN BARRUCFLB★3★3
JUSTIN BALLMISSISSIPPI STATETE★3★3
WILL SHEPPARDCOLORADOWR★3★4
SAVION RILEYCOLORADOS★3★3
JAYDEN MCGOWANBOSTON COLLEGEWR★3★3
LOGAN KYLEJAMES MADISONTE★3★3
LONDON HUMPHREYSGEORGIAWR★3★4
JOHN HOWSE IVMIDDLE TENNESSEEDB★3★3
AJ SWANNLSUQB★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES58%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS64%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#40NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8714COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2123 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST24% BACK24th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG24% BACK24th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR43%43th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST60%60th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE