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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
ACC|TONY ELLIOTT|—RECORD11-3|CONF—
VIRGINIA#16 AP 36 FPIACC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
55FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
46%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
33%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#580 BC / 21
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
10-3ACTUALvs9.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+11.6
10 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE60
PERFORMANCE60
TALENT61
CONTINUITY46
DEFENSE85
PERFORMANCE85
TALENT62
CONTINUITY33
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
52MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HCOASTAL CAROLINA—W 48-7421111+67BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6ANC STATE—L 31-35686060+18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HWILLIAM & MARY—W 55-16————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20HSTANFORD—W 48-20671818+60BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 26HFLORIDA STATE—W 46-38877070+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4ALOUISVILLE—W 30-27648282-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HWASHINGTON STATE—W 22-20315656+22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25ANORTH CAROLINA—W 17-16783333+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1ACALIFORNIA—W 31-21744141+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HWAKE FOREST—L 9-16476262+16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15ADUKE—W 34-17586868+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HVIRGINIA TECH—W 27-7722323+55BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 6HDUKE—L 20-27586868+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27AMISSOURI—W 13-7858585-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB75TAL74PERF75RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
CHANDLER MORRISQB SEPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
★4★39789%+20FELL
12
DANIEL KAELINQB SOPORTAL · NEBRASKA
★3★35710%-28HELD
6
COLE GEERQB SONO SNAPS
★3—101%——
19
GRADY BROSTERHOUSQB SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
18
BJORN JURGENSENQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
14
BOONE LOURDQB JURET
★3—00%——
▾RB54TAL34PERF54RET15ONE OWNERn=5 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
J'MARI TAYLORRB SEPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
UNR★39957%-10EMERGED
21
HARRISON WAYLEERB SEPORTAL · WYOMING
★3★38223%+16HELD
0
XAVIER BROWNRB SERET
★3—6611%+2—
25
XAY DAVISRB SONO SNAPS
★3—443%-25—
3
NOAH VAUGHNRB SERET
★3—443%+27—
27
OWEN GARDNERRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—60%——
▾WR/TE53TAL69PERF55RET56ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
JAHMAL EDRINEWR SEPORTAL · PURDUE
★3★39727%+17HELD
0
SAGE ENNISTE SERET
★3★39654%-14HELD
11
TRELL HARRISWR SERET
★2★49525%+14ROSE
6
CAM ROSSWR SEPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
★3★39121%+1HELD
89
JOHN ROGERSTE SORET
★3—7321%+2—
9
DAKOTA TWITTYTE SERET
★4—7221%-32—
5
KAMERON COURTNEYWR JURET
★3★3699%-2HELD
7
ELI WOODWR SERET
UNR★3647%+4EMERGED
15
DILLON NEWTON-SHORTWR SONO SNAPS
★3—513%——
8
JAYDEN THOMASWR SEPORTAL · NOTRE DAME
★4★3473%-10FELL
84
ISAIAH ROBINSONWR SONO SNAPS
★3—351%——
88
WALKER WALLACETE SENO SNAPS
UNR—342%——
94
HAYDEN ROLLISONTE SERET
UNR—322%——
5
DAVIS LANEWR SERET
★3★3312%——
13
JOSIAH ABDULLAHWR SONO SNAPS
★3—301%——
8
TY'LYRIC COLEMANWR SERET
★3—301%——
18
ANDRE GREENE JR.WR SERET
★4★3271%-65FELL
1
SUDERIAN HARRISONWR JURET
★3★3150%+8HELD
83
WILLEM THURBERTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
81
TEKAI KIRBYWR SERET
★3—00%——
23
TRISTON WARDWR JURET
★3—00%——
29
CJ SPENCEWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
87
JUSTIN ZAMESTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
30
HENRY OMOHUNDROTE JURET
UNR—00%——
80
TREVOR LADDWR JURET
★3—00%——
▸OL60TAL56PERF61RET54n=8 · 3 METRICS · 22 OBS
▸DL66TAL58PERF67RET29n=10 · 8 METRICS · 63 OBS
▸LB47TAL56PERF47RET81n=5 · 10 METRICS · 37 OBS
▸DB51TAL68PERF51RET18n=9 · 8 METRICS · 56 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOSIAH ABDULLAHHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
EVAN WARDHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
BJORN JURGENSENHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
COREY COSTNERHS RECRUITS★3UNR
CJ SPENCEHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JON ADAIRHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JOSIAH PERSINGERHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JIM HARRIS JR.HS RECRUITOT★3UNR
ISAIAH ROBINSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ISAIAH REESEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN11 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MONROE MILLSLOUISVILLEOT★3★4
EMMANUEL KARNLEYMIAMICB★3★4
HUNTER OSBORNEALABAMADL★4★3
MAKILAN THOMASARKANSAS STATEIOL★3★3
CHRISTIAN CHARLESTENNESSEES★3★3
JORDAN ROBINSONCINCINNATICB★2★3
KEVIN WIGENTON IIILLINOISIOL★3★3
CHANDLER MORRISNORTH TEXASQB★4★3
CAM ROSSJAMES MADISONWR★3★3
JAHMAL EDRINEPURDUEWR★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT34 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BLAKE STEENMISSISSIPPI STATEOL★3★3
TY FURNISHGEORGIA SOUTHERNOL★3★3
UGONNA NNANNANORTH TEXASOL★3★3
ANTHONY COLANDREAUNLVQB★3★3
MALACHI FIELDSNOTRE DAMEWR★3★4
MIKE DIATTAOKLAHOMA STATEDT★3★3
BEN SMILEYUCONNDL★3UNR
JR WILSON JR.FLORIDA ATLANTICWR★3UNR
MALCOLM GREENEMASSACHUSETTSDL★4★3
JADEN GIBSONSAMFORDWR★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES70%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS66%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#58NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8681COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3123 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST20% BACK20th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG20% BACK20th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR54%54th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST18%18th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE