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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG TEN|LUKE FICKELL|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
WISCONSIN60 FPIB1G · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
80FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
65%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
49%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-15IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#277 BC / 22
BC RATIO
29%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN-8.8
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE23
PERFORMANCE23
TALENT75
CONTINUITY65
DEFENSE61
PERFORMANCE61
TALENT72
CONTINUITY49
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
73MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
6 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28HMIAMI (OH)—W 17-0374040-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HMIDDLE TENNESSEE—W 42-102077+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13AALABAMA#9L 14-38998686-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HMARYLAND—L 10-27634545-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4AMICHIGAN#21L 10-24938282-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HIOWA#17L 0-37709292-54BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HOHIO STATE#5L 0-34999999-61BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25AOREGON#4L 7-21979898-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HWASHINGTON—W 13-10749191-53BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AINDIANA#1L 7-3148100100-62BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HILLINOIS—W 27-10548383-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AMINNESOTA—L 7-17714949-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB37TAL72PERF37RET0ROTATIONn=3 · 7 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
HUNTER SIMMONSQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—6939%-46—
18
DANNY O'NEILQB JUPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE
★3★36737%+20HELD
5
CARTER SMITHQB FRTRUE FR
★4—5819%-35—
9
BILLY EDWARDS JR.QB SEPORTAL · MARYLAND
★3★3315%+2HELD
16
MILOS SPASOJEVICQB FRRET
★2—00%——
▾RB60TAL70PERF60RET100ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
DARRION DUPREERB JURET
★4—7837%-14—
13
DILIN JONESRB SORET
★4★37027%-22FELL
10
GIDEON ITUKARB SORET
★3—6219%-25—
20
CADE YACAMELLIRB SERET
★3★36017%+11HELD
43
GROVER BORTOLOTTIRB SERET
UNR—00%——
38
MASON LANERB SORET
UNR—00%——
32
HARRISON BORTOLOTTIRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE72TAL70PERF66RET58ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
86
LANCE MASONTE SEPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE
UNR★39355%+49EMERGED
8
VINNY ANTHONY IIWR SERET
★3—8030%+11—
2
TRECH KEKAHUNAWR JURET
★3★37221%+5HELD
85
GRANT STECTE SORET
★4—6720%——
4
JAYDEN BALLARDWR SEPORTAL · OHIO STATE
★4★36717%+23FELL
2
CHRIS BROOKS JR.WR SERET
★3—6515%+15—
34
JACKSON ACKERTE SERET
★3—6417%+14—
13
EUGENE HILTON JR.WR SONO SNAPS
★3★3589%-14HELD
84
TUCKER ASHCRAFTTE JURET
★3★3538%-20HELD
0
TYRELL HENRYWR SERET
★3★3444%-34HELD
87
JACKSON MCGOHANWR JURET
★3★3282%—HELD
20
DEKEL CROWDUSWR SEPORTAL · HAWAI'I
★4★3241%+28FELL
1
JOSEPH GRIFFIN JR.WR SERET
★4★3151%+6FELL
82
EMMETT BORKTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
41
JT SEAGREAVESTE JURET
★3—00%——
42
TYLER JANSEYTE JURET
★3—00%——
17
NIZYI DAVISTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
22
KYAN BERRY-JOHNSONWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
23
DAVION THOMAS-KUMPULAWR JURET
UNR—00%——
19
LANGDON NORDGAARDWR SORET
★2—00%——
81
MASON KELLEYWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
89
BEN LEMIRANDWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL53TAL80PERF53RET74n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL73TAL77PERF73RET55n=9 · 7 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸LB76TAL76PERF76RET51n=8 · 11 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸DB48TAL65PERF48RET45n=8 · 6 METRICS · 40 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MASON POSAHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
NICOLAS CLAYTONHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
JAYLEN WILLIAMSHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
CARTER SMITHHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
HARDY WATTSHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
LOGAN POWELLHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
JAI'MIER SCOTTHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
EUGENE HILTON JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MICHAEL ROESKEHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
GRANT DEANHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TYREESE FEARBRYKENTUCKYEDGE★4★4
JAY'VIAR SUGGSLSUDLUNR★4
MICHEAL GARNERGRAMBLINGEDGE★3★3
CHARLES PERKINSUT MARTINDLUNR★3
MASON REIGERLOUISVILLEEDGEUNR★3
PARKER PETERSENTULANEDL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT34 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CURT NEALILLINOISDL★3★3
LEON LOWERY JR.ILLINOISLB★3★3
RILEY NOWAKOWSKIINDIANATEUNR★3
BRAEDYN LOCKEARIZONAQB★4★3
TAWEE WALKERCINCINNATIRBUNR★3
C.J. WILLIAMSSTANFORDWR★4★3
WILL PAULINGNOTRE DAMEWR★3★3
XAVIER LUCASMIAMIDB★4★4
QUINCY BURROUGHSWESTERN KENTUCKYWR★3★3
KAMO'I LATUUCONNDB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES68%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS50%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#27NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
7OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8839COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1833 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
48TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
3
11
10
12
12
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.3 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +10 W
IMPROVED24 OF 48
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST25% BACK25th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG25% BACK25th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR74%74th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST45%45th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE