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HOME›TEAMS›APP STATE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
SUN BELT|SHAWN CLARK|—RECORD9-5|CONF—
APP STATE68 FPISBC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
39FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
71%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
67%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#800 BC / 15
BC RATIO
—
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-5ACTUALvs8.0-5.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.4
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE69
PERFORMANCE69
TALENT42
CONTINUITY71
DEFENSE33
PERFORMANCE33
TALENT41
CONTINUITY67
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
41MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HGARDNER-WEBB—W 45-24————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9ANORTH CAROLINA—L 34-40887171-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HEAST CAROLINA—W 43-28451717+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23AWYOMING—L 19-22114242+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30AUL MONROE—W 41-401022+59BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 10HCOASTAL CAROLINA—L 24-27394949+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AOLD DOMINION—L 21-28122323+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HSOUTHERN MISS—W 48-38231313+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HMARSHALL—W 31-9312626+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AGEORGIA STATE—W 42-14373434+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AJAMES MADISON—W 26-2358686-25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 55-27233939+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14DEC 2ATROY—L 23-49278181-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 16HMIAMI (OH)—W 13-9215656+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB74TAL44PERF74RET3ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
JOEY AGUILARQB SENO SNAPS
UNR★39897%+28EMERGED
18
RYAN BURGERQB JURET
★3★3253%—HELD
▾RB42TAL53PERF42RET88ROTATIONn=5 · 5 METRICS · 20 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
NATE NOELRB SERET
★3★39039%+20HELD
2
KANYE ROBERTSRB SERET
★2★28330%+22HELD
4
ANDERSON CASTLERB SERET
★3★36514%+16HELD
28
MAQUEL HAYWOODRB SEPORTAL · NAVY
UNR★26212%+31EMERGED
3
AHMANI MARSHALLRB SERET
★3—424%+5—
▾WR/TE54TAL42PERF60RET92ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
87
ELI WILSONTE SERET
★3—9855%-13—
2
KAEDIN ROBINSONWR SERET
UNR★39627%+28EMERGED
13
CHRISTAN HORNWR SERET
★3—8118%+27—
85
DAVID LARKINSTE SERET
★3—7725%+3—
6
DASHAUN DAVISWR JURET
★3★27414%+19FELL
8
DALTON STROMANWR SERET
★3—7314%+32—
2
MAKAI JACKSONWR SEPORTAL · SAINT FRANCIS (PA)
UNR★37213%+26EMERGED
MILAN TUCKERWR SERET
★3★3659%+27HELD
81
MILLER GIBBSTE SERET
UNR—6314%+38—
12
MICHAEL HETZELWR JURET
UNR—524%-2—
6
KANEN HAMLETTTE SERET
★3★3373%—HELD
89
AUGUST DREWSTE SORET
★2—353%——
80
MAX DRAGTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★3110%—HELD
11
COEN SUTTONWR JURET
★3★200%—FELL
▸OL56TAL35PERF56RET72n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL45TAL58PERF45RET49n=8 · 7 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸LB41TAL33PERF41RET99n=9 · 11 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸DB47TAL31PERF47RET64n=10 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GRANT TUCKERHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
D.J. PORTERHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
CHRIS LAWSON JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
NATE JOHNSONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JAYDEN BETHEAHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
RYAN MCKINNISHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
CAYDEN SWEATTHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ZYEIR GAMBLEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
CAHARI HAYNESHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
MASON MCHUGHHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GRIFFIN SCROGGSGEORGIAIOL★3★3
MICHAEL FLETCHERMICHIGAN STATEEDGE★4★4
THORNTON GENTRYNC STATEOT★3★3
EJ JACKSONMARSHALLCB★3★3
THOMAS DAVISMIAMIEDGE★3★3
JARRETT PAULKANSASS★3★3
SHAWN COLLINSRUTGERSDL★3★3
LOGAN RIDOLPHMISSOURI STATEOTUNR★2
CHRISTIAN FORDMISSISSIPPI STATEWR★3★2
MAQUEL HAYWOODNAVYRBUNR★2
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT41 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TROY EVERETTOKLAHOMAOL★3★3
KESEAN BROWNMARSHALLLB★3★3
JALEN MCLEODAUBURNNT★3★3
CHRISTIAN WELLSMASSACHUSETTSWR★3★3
KALEB DAWSONALABAMA A&MDB★2★2
JORDAN MITCHELLALABAMA A&MLBUNRUNR
DORIAN PICKETTALABAMA A&MDLUNRUNR
JAMAR RUCKSKENNESAW STATEDL★3★3
STEVEN JONES JR.ELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
DEXTER LAWSON JR.ELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#80NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 15 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8343COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1314 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
56TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
5
15
14
11
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +6 W
IMPROVED25 OF 56
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST39% BACK39th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG39% BACK39th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR72%72th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR3%3th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST64%64th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE