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HOME›TEAMS›ARIZONA STATE›2025TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG 12|KENNY DILLINGHAM|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
ARIZONA STATE44 FPIB12 · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
77FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
74%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
82%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-5IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#442 BC / 22
BC RATIO
20%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+1.7
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE62
PERFORMANCE62
TALENT69
CONTINUITY74
DEFENSE84
PERFORMANCE84
TALENT66
CONTINUITY82
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
65MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HNORTHERN ARIZONA—W 38-19————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6AMISSISSIPPI STATE—L 20-24835757-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HTEXAS STATE—W 34-15455353+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20ABAYLOR—W 27-24754848+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 26HTCU#25W 27-24777373-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AUTAH#14L 10-42699595-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HTEXAS TECH#7W 26-22809999-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HHOUSTON#22L 16-24537171-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1AIOWA STATE—W 24-19497676-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HWEST VIRGINIA—W 25-23553232+24BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ACOLORADO—W 42-17793030+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 28HARIZONA—L 7-23528080-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 31ADUKE—L 39-42586868-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB65TAL69PERF65RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
SAM LEAVITTQB JURET
★4★57957%+14ROSE
2
JEFF SIMSQB SERET
★4★37543%-15FELL
19
CHRISTIAN HUNTQB SORET
★2★300%—ROSE
17
MICHAEL TOLLEFSONQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
13
CAMERON DYERQB SONO SNAPS
★4—00%——
▾RB51TAL84PERF51RET77ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
RALEEK BROWNRB SERET
★4★49966%+24HELD
6
KANYE UDOHRB JUPORTAL · ARMY
★3★36413%+17HELD
23
DEMARIUS ROBINSONRB SONO SNAPS
★3—589%-35—
1
KYSON BROWNRB SERET
★3—547%+30—
22
JASON BROWN JR.RB JURET
★4—465%+38—
21
GRAYSON RIGDONRB SONO SNAPS
★3—181%——
▾WR/TE48TAL68PERF48RET79ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
MALIK MCCLAINWR SERET
★4★39835%+10FELL
7
CHAMON METAYERTE SERET
★4★39650%+8FELL
0
JORDYN TYSONWR JURET
★3★48824%+35ROSE
5
DEREK EUSEBIOWR SERET
UNR—8321%0—
9
CAMERON HARPOLETE SERET
★3★38128%-20HELD
18
JALEN MOSSWR SEPORTAL · FRESNO STATE
★3★37213%+5HELD
15
KHAMARI ANDERSONTE SEPORTAL · KENTUCKY
★4★36817%-50FELL
16
JAREN HAMILTONWR SEPORTAL · ALABAMA
★4★3607%+9FELL
0
AJ IATE SONO SNAPS
★4—464%——
3
ZECHARIAH SAMPLEWR SORET
★3★3231%—HELD
88
COBEN BOURGUETWR SERET
UNR—150%——
87
JAMES GIGGEYTE JURET
★3—141%——
89
NOBLE JOHNSONWR SEPORTAL · CLEMSON
★4★300%—FELL
9
CORY BUTLER JR.WR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
80
JAYDEN FORTIERTE FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
24
COLESON ARENDSTE JURET
UNR—00%——
82
CHANCE ABLESWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
81
URIAH NELOMSWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
89
HARRY HASSMANNWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
85
AKIM LANIEUXWR JUPORTAL · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
▸OL48TAL66PERF48RET66n=8 · 3 METRICS · 24 OBS
▸DL60TAL56PERF60RET91n=10 · 7 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB71TAL67PERF71RET99n=5 · 10 METRICS · 27 OBS
▸DB56TAL72PERF56RET66n=10 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CAMERON DYERHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
AJ IAHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
MANAMO'UI MUTIHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
MAKI STEWARTHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JOSEPH SMITHHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
DEMARIUS ROBINSONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
BEN ALEFAIO-LILIIHS RECRUITS★3UNR
CORY BUTLER JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
CHANCE ABLESHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HARRY HASSMANNHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
NYLAND GREENPURDUECB★4★3
ADRIAN WILSONWASHINGTON STATES★3★3
JAREN HAMILTONALABAMAWR★4★3
KHAMARI ANDERSONKENTUCKYTE★4★3
JIMETO OBIGBOTEXAS STATEIOLUNR★3
MY'KEIL GARDNEROREGONDL★3★3
JALEN MOSSFRESNO STATEWR★3★3
KYNDRICH BREEDLOVEPURDUECB★3★3
KANYE UDOHARMYRB★3★3
NOBLE JOHNSONCLEMSONWR★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT29 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LATERRANCE WELCHUNLVDB★4★3
MARKESTON DOUGLASFLORIDA STATETE★3★3
TROY OMEIREUNLVWR★4★3
KAMARI WILSONMEMPHISS★4★3
J.P. DEETERTEXAS STATEDL★3★2
K'VION THUNDERBIRDFRESNO STATELB★3★3
COLE MARTINUCLADB★4★3
KEONTEZ BRADLEYBUFFALOCB★3★3
ALTON MCCASKILLSAM HOUSTONRB★3★3
CHANCE SYMONSNORTH DAKOTA STATEDEUNRUNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES61%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS44%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#44NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8672COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1722 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST69% BACK69th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG69% BACK69th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR66%66th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST66%66th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE