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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|EDDIE GEORGE|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
BOWLING GREEN112 FPIMAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
23FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
57%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
44%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#940 BC / 22
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs4.8-7.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-3.8
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE4
PERFORMANCE4
TALENT33
CONTINUITY57
DEFENSE30
PERFORMANCE30
TALENT41
CONTINUITY44
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
32MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28HLAFAYETTE—W 26-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6ACINCINNATI—L 20-34475959-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HLIBERTY—W 23-13392525-8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20ALOUISVILLE—L 17-40648282-65BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27AOHIO—L 20-3593939-22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HTOLEDO—W 28-23466565-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HCENTRAL MICHIGAN—L 6-27122626-9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25AKENT STATE—L 21-24744+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HBUFFALO—L 3-28193030-13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AEASTERN MICHIGAN—L 21-27321313+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 18HAKRON—L 16-19251414+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 25AMASSACHUSETTS—W 45-141500+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB27TAL14PERF27RET23ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
DREW PYNEQB SEPORTAL · MISSOURI
★4★37253%-3FELL
10
HUNTER NAJMQB SOPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
UNR★36124%-3EMERGED
15
LUCIAN ANDERSON IIIQB JURET
UNR★35415%-23EMERGED
8
BARON MAYQB SERET
★3—428%——
19
CARSEN MELVINQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB50TAL45PERF50RET16ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
CAMERON PETTAWAYRB SORET
★3★37528%+26HELD
1
AUSTYN DENDYRB SOPORTAL · MISSOURI
★3★37225%-25HELD
3
KADERRIS ROBERTSRB SENO SNAPS
UNR★37123%+23EMERGED
7
MAR'KEL PORTERRB SORET
★3★36115%-35HELD
30
PASEAN WIMBERLYRB SERET
UNR—394%-9—
2
NAKAI AMACHREERB SORET
★3—262%——
23
CHRIS EDMONDSRB SORET
UNR—212%+8—
44
LEO KEMPFB SENO SNAPS
UNR—181%——
4
CHRIS MCMILLIANRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%-44—
24
BRYCE DEFALCORB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE39TAL33PERF42RET42ROTATIONn=7 · 8 METRICS · 37 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
JYRIN JOHNSONTE SEPORTAL · TEXAS SOUTHERN
UNR★38530%+35EMERGED
89
BLANE CLEAVERTE SERET
UNR—8328%——
6
RJ GARCIA IIWR SERET
★3★37929%-14HELD
89
JACOB HARRISTE JURET
UNR★37722%+1EMERGED
11
FINN HOGANWR SERET
UNR★27526%-1EMERGED
8
ELI JACON-DUFFYTE SORET
★3—7218%——
1
ALLEN MIDDLETONWR SONO SNAPS
★3★37122%-62HELD
86
REIS STOCKSDALEWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—537%-56—
5
BRENNAN RIDLEYWR JUPORTAL · HAMPTON
UNR★3517%—EMERGED
18
WINN SHARPWR SORET
★3—465%——
3
TREY JOHNSONWR SERET
★3—414%-62—
0
JEREMIAH SCOBYTE SONO SNAPS
★3—241%——
12
DESHAUN LANIERWR FRTRUE FR
★3★3110%—HELD
15
CALEB GOODLOEWR FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
87
JARED MERKWR SORET
UNR—00%——
11
AUSTIN CLAYWR SOPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
★3★300%—HELD
83
PIERCE ST GEMEWR SORET
UNR—00%——
81
ARLIS BOARDINGHAMTE SEPORTAL · FLORIDA
★3★300%-4HELD
13
CYNCEIR MCNEALWR SORET
UNR—00%——
80
OCEAN BRABBSTE SORET
UNR—00%——
85
REECE LITTLEWR FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▸OL37TAL36PERF37RET87n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL46TAL34PERF46RET75n=9 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸LB55TAL42PERF55RET14n=5 · 11 METRICS · 33 OBS
▸DB40TAL45PERF40RET32n=7 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JT KITNAHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
DESHAUN LANIERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DILON TALLIEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JEREMIAH SCOBYHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
TYRON STEEDHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DIOR GARNERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
DEVENCHI ARNOLD IIHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JAHVION JARMONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
CASHMIRE LEWISHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
CARSEN MELVINHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ARLIS BOARDINGHAMFLORIDATE★3★3
COLLINS ACHEAMPONGUCLAEDGE★4★3
MJ CANNONILLINOIS STATECB★2★3
MATEO SUDIPOWESTERN CAROLINAS★2★3
JALEN MCCLENDONTENNESSEE STATECBUNR★3
GIDEON LAMPRONDAYTONLBUNR★3
BRENNAN RIDLEYHAMPTONWRUNR★3
ANDREW HINES IIIWAKE FORESTLB★3★3
AUSTYN DENDYMISSOURIRB★3★3
AUSTIN CLAYMICHIGAN STATEWR★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT39 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ALEX WOLLSCHLAEGERKENTUCKYOL★2★4
JOSEPH SIPP JR.KANSASLB★3★3
CJ BROWNSAM HOUSTONDB★3★3
EDWARD RHAMBONEVADADBUNR★3
DAVONTE MILESSOUTH CAROLINADL★3★3
TERION STEWARTVIRGINIA TECHRB★3★3
JUSTIN PEGUESNORTH ALABAMAWRUNRUNR
ALIJAH WILLIAMSWOFFORDLB★3★3
HAROLD FANNIN JR.NFL DRAFT R3TEUNR—
JORDAN OLADOKUNELIGIBILITY UPCB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES93%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS92%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#94NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8337COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2129 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST6% BACK6th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG6% BACK6th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR87%87th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR23%23th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST32%32th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE