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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|WILL HEALY|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
CHARLOTTE117 FPIAAC · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
37FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1010 BC / 24
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs4.4-7.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN-6.8
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
33MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3HDUKE—W 31-28571313-1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 11HGARDNER-WEBB—W 38-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 18AGEORGIA STATE—L 9-20264545-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24HMIDDLE TENNESSEE—W 42-39423131-19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2AILLINOIS—L 14-24645151-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8AFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—W 45-334644+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HFLORIDA ATLANTIC—L 9-38492929-17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30AWESTERN KENTUCKY—L 13-45478282-70BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6HRICE—W 31-242833+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 13ALOUISIANA TECH—L 32-42451717-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 20HMARSHALL—L 28-49366161-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 27AOLD DOMINION—L 34-56252424-12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET100NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
DYLAN RATLIFFQB JURET
UNR—00%——
7
JAMES FOSTERQB JUPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
★4★400%—HELD
6
DOM SHOFFNERQB SERET
UNR—00%——
3
CHRIS REYNOLDSQB SERET
UNR—00%——
17
FORD WERNESSQB SORET
UNR—00%——
24
PRESTON BROWNQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
11
TREXLER IVEYQB JURET
UNR—00%——
1
COLT MINSONQB FRRET
★2★200%—HELD
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET20NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
HENRY RUTLEDGERB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
2
CALVIN CAMPRB SERET
UNR—00%——
13
SHADRICK BYRDRB JUPORTAL · IOWA
★3★300%—HELD
6
CHAVON MCEACHERNRB SORET
★3—00%——
5
AARON MCALLISTERRB SERET
★2—00%——
13
TERRICK SMALLS JR.RB SORET
UNR—00%——
21
ELIJAH TURNERRB FRRET
★3—00%——
30
KEEGAN WILLIAMSRB FRRET
★2—00%——
27
MCKINLEY NELSONRB JURET
UNR—00%——
21
CHRIS HOUSTONRB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
85
RYAN CARRIERETE SERET
★2—00%——
18
KEITH PEARSONWR —PORTAL · PRESBYTERIAN
UNR—00%——
1
VICTOR TUCKERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
4
CAMERON DOLLARWR JURET
★2—00%——
11
ELIJAH SPENCERWR SENO SNAPS
★3★400%—ROSE
17
TAYLOR THOMPSONTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
81
JAKE CLEMONSTE SERET
★3—00%——
5
JAIRUS MACKWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
86
BRYCE KENNONTE SERET
UNR—00%——
18
COLIN WEBERTE SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
14
GRANT DUBOSEWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
80
CHRISTIAN ROBERSONTE SERET
★3—00%——
83
CHRIS WIGGINSWR SORET
★3—00%——
86
MOSS SACCOMANNOTE JURET
UNR★200%—EMERGED
15
JUSTIN JEFFERYWR SORET
★3—00%——
88
JACOB HUNTTE JURET
★2—00%——
6
TRE' GOODEWR SORET
★2—00%——
89
QUINTON PATTENWR JURET
★2—00%——
82
JAYLAN WILLIAMSTE FRRET
★2—00%——
23
MICALEOUS ELDERWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
16
KENDRIC BLAKE JR.WR JURET
UNR—00%——
19
JOSH CURRYWR SORET
UNR—00%——
7
BRAYLIN JOHNSONWR FRRET
★3—00%——
CHYLON THOMASWR SERET
UNR—00%——
12
DONTA ARMSTRONGTE SORET
★3★300%—HELD
14
WHIT KANEWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAIRUS MACKHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
STEVEN PARKERHS RECRUITS★3UNR
CHAVION SMITHHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
ELIJAH SPENCERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KNOX BOYDHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
BJ RAGLANDHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
DJ BROWNHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
XAVIER WILLIAMSHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
TYSON CLAWSONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
CAM BURDENHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAMES FOSTERTEXAS A&MDUAL★4★3
T.J. MOOREFLORIDAIOL★5★4
TANK ROBINSONEAST CAROLINAS★3★3
VALERIAN AGBAWKANSASATH★3★3
SHADRICK BYRDIOWARB★3★3
JOSHUA BAILEYIOWA STATEDL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT6 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RICO ARNOLDMASSACHUSETTSWR★2★2
TIMMY HORNEKANSAS STATEDT★2★3
TYLER RINGWOODELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
BEN DELUCAELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
ROMEO MCKNIGHTELIGIBILITY UPDE★3—
TRE HARBISONELIGIBILITY UPRB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#101NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 24 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8136COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1112 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST82% BACK82th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG82% BACK82th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE