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● LIVE|2023 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›DUKE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
ACC|MIKE ELKO|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
DUKE32 FPIACC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
52FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
76%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
81%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-10IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#560 BC / 26
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+8.0
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE77
PERFORMANCE77
TALENT62
CONTINUITY76
DEFENSE70
PERFORMANCE70
TALENT64
CONTINUITY81
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
59MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
5 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 4HCLEMSON#20W 28-7978484-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HLAFAYETTE—W 42-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16HNORTHWESTERN—W 38-14634848+30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23AUCONN—W 41-7331010+68BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HNOTRE DAME#14L 14-21939595-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HNC STATE#21W 24-3737171+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AFLORIDA STATE#6L 20-38869494-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28ALOUISVILLE#19L 0-23807575+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HWAKE FOREST—W 24-21502828+50BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11ANORTH CAROLINA—L 45-47887171+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AVIRGINIA—L 27-30532121+57BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HPITTSBURGH—W 30-19723232+46BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 23HTROY—W 17-10278181-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB81TAL68PERF81RET57ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
RILEY LEONARDQB SERET
★3★47149%+5ROSE
12
GRAYSON LOFTISQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★36943%-34HELD
2
HENRY BELIN IVQB SERET
★3★3377%+30HELD
20
DONALD TOMLINQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB50TAL68PERF50RET94ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 20 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
JORDAN WATERSRB SERET
★3★49043%+1ROSE
9
JAQUEZ MOORERB SERET
★3★38638%+26HELD
22
JAYLEN COLEMANRB SERET
★3—6314%-31—
7
PEYTON JONESRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3425%-43HELD
13
QURAN BOYDRB FRTRUE FR
★3★3171%—HELD
13
TRAVIS BATESRB JURET
★3—00%——
29
GRISSIM ANDERSONRB SERET
UNR—00%——
10
MARQUISE COLLINSRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE45TAL56PERF49RET82ONE OWNERn=5 · 8 METRICS · 36 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
JORDAN MOOREWR SERET
★3—9633%+17—
5
JALON CALHOUNWR SERET
★3—9430%+26—
81
NICKY DALMOLINTE SERET
★3—9355%-34—
2
SAHMIR HAGANSWR SERET
★3—9229%-36—
85
JEREMIAH HASLEYTE SERET
★3—8238%-43—
1
JONTAVIS ROBERTSONWR SERET
★3—443%-4—
11
MEHKI WALLWR FRRET
★3★3423%—HELD
82
COLE FINNEYTE JURET
★3—394%-39—
15
JAKE TAYLORTE SERET
★3—262%——
3
QUE'SEAN BROWNWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★4251%—ROSE
18
MALIK BOWEN-SIMSWR SERET
★3★3241%-55HELD
80
VANCE BOLYARDTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★3141%—HELD
3
APOLLOS COOKTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
10
JAMES HOPSON IIWR SERET
UNR—00%——
88
VINCENT DROLETTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
14
SEAN BROWNWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
18
SPENCER JONESWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
4
ELI PANCOLWR SERET
★3—00%+17—
84
TREVOR HORTONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
9
HAYES SUTTONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
23
EDWIN BARNES IIIWR SERET
UNR—00%——
26
WILLIAM ROBERTSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
4
NICK LAMPERTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
16
CADE ANDERSTE FRRET
UNR—00%——
87
BEAU LILLY IIIWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL57TAL65PERF57RET67n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL62TAL60PERF62RET97n=10 · 7 METRICS · 60 OBS
▸LB45TAL55PERF45RET98n=4 · 10 METRICS · 34 OBS
▸DB59TAL72PERF59RET69n=9 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS20 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PEYTON JONESHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
KEVIN O'CONNORHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
MARQUISE COLLINSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
GRAYSON LOFTISHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
SEMAJ TURNERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
TERRY SIMMONS JR.HS RECRUITDL★3UNR
MOUSSA KANEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
KIMARI ROBINSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
QUENTIN AJIEROHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
VANCE BOLYARDHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN5 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAKE HORNIBROOKSTANFORDOT★3★3
MYLES JONESTEXAS A&MCB★3★3
AL BLADES JR.MIAMICB★4★3
BEN HOITINKPENNSYLVANIAIOL★3★3
SCOTT ELLIOTTHARVARDOTUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT29 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TONY DAVISEASTERN KENTUCKYDB★4★4
MICHAEL LARBIERICEDLUNRUNR
DARRELL HARDING JR.BUFFALOWR★3UNR
MATT SMITHMASSACHUSETTSTE★3★3
AHMAD CRAIGCENTRAL CONNECTICUTDE★3★3
ERIC WEATHERLYBUCKNELLWR★3★3
SAYYID STEVENSOLD DOMINIONLB★3★3
DARIUS JOINERELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
CHANCE LYTLEELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
SHAKA HEYWARDELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES1%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS2%2 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#56NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 26 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8564COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
616 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST99% BACK99th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG99% BACK99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR67%67th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR57%57th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST69%69th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE