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HOME›TEAMS›FRESNO STATE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
PAC-12|JEFF TEDFORD|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
FRESNO STATE80 FPIPAC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
44FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
76%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
79%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-16IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#830 BC / 14
BC RATIO
5%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs7.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.3
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE32
PERFORMANCE32
TALENT51
CONTINUITY76
DEFENSE36
PERFORMANCE36
TALENT41
CONTINUITY79
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
29MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2APURDUE—W 39-35663232+23BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HEASTERN WASHINGTON—W 34-31————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16AARIZONA STATE—W 29-0692020+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HKENT STATE—W 53-101500+55BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HNEVADA—W 27-92811+54BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7AWYOMING—L 19-24114242+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 13AUTAH STATE—W 37-32252020+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HUNLV—W 31-241455550BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HBOISE STATE—W 37-30486767-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11ASAN JOSÉ STATE—L 18-42384242+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HNEW MEXICO—L 17-251577+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25ASAN DIEGO STATE—L 18-33262222+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 16HNEW MEXICO STATE—W 37-10174545+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB38TAL45PERF38RET20ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
MIKEY KEENEQB SEPORTAL · UCF
★3★39380%+31HELD
4
LOGAN FIFEQB SERET
★2★36020%+19ROSE
3
JOSHUA WOODQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
7
JAYDEN MANDALQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
16
JACK JACOBSQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB33TAL19PERF33RET94ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
23
MALIK SHERRODRB SERET
★3★39967%+14HELD
33
ELIJAH GILLIAMRB SERET
UNR—7927%-1—
20
DEVON RIVERSRB SONO SNAPS
★3—373%-50—
0
JOHNATHAN ARCENEAUXRB SERET
★3—302%——
28
DAMIEN MOORERB SEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★3★300%+17HELD
6
JUSTIN GUINRB SERET
UNR—00%——
32
CHARLES GREER JR.RB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
27
RYAN WARKENTINRB JURET
★2—00%——
31
BRANDON RAMIREZRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE32TAL67PERF36RET63ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
84
TRE WATSONTE SERET
★3★39970%+52HELD
18
JALEN MOSSWR SERET
★3★39825%+5HELD
MAC DALENAWR SERET
★3—9523%-18—
3
ERIK BROOKSWR SERET
UNR—9422%+18—
5
JAELEN GILLWR SEPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
★4★57814%0ROSE
86
JAKE BOUSTTE SERET
UNR—7226%-40—
5
JOSIAH FREEMANWR SERET
UNR★37211%+15EMERGED
4
TIM GREAR JR.WR SENO SNAPS
UNR★3493%—EMERGED
2
ANTOINE SULLIVANWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR★2382%—EMERGED
84
RICHIE ANDERSON IIITE SENO SNAPS
★3★3241%—HELD
87
JAKE TARWATERTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—171%——
15
KAMRON BEACHEMTE SERET
★3★3171%—HELD
81
JORDAN BROWNWR SERET
★3—00%——
7
ARTIS COLEWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★200%—EMERGED
82
JOSHUA JOHNSONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
4
EMORYIE EDWARDSWR SERET
★3—00%-5—
11
MIKEL BARKLEYWR SEPORTAL · TOLEDO
UNR★300%+24EMERGED
13
NATHAN ACEVEDOWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
89
BROCK LIUMTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
2
JACEON DOSSWR SENO SNAPS
★2★300%—ROSE
36
JOE DALENAWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
80
TYLER CARRTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL42TAL47PERF42RET98n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL45TAL42PERF45RET83n=12 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸LB42TAL36PERF42RET90n=5 · 10 METRICS · 27 OBS
▸DB46TAL42PERF46RET73n=9 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRANDON RAMIREZHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JUSTIN JOHNSONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
RL MILLERHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
CHARLES GREER JR.HS RECRUITRB★3UNR
MORDECAI HINESHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JAYDEN MANDALHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
RICHIE ANDERSONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
DEVON RIVERSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
ISIAH CHALA JR.HS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JACK JACOBSHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MIKEY KEENEUCFQB★3★3
MIKEL BARKLEYTOLEDOWRUNR★3
JAELEN GILLBOSTON COLLEGEWR★4★5
DAMIEN MOORECALIFORNIARB★3★3
TUASIVI NOMURAUSCLB★3★3
DEAN CLARKKENT STATES★3★3
KINGSLEY UGWUKANSAS STATEOTUNR★2
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT27 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BULA SCHMIDTUCFOL★3★3
EVAN WILLIAMSOREGONDB★4★4
BRALYN LUXTEXAS TECHDBUNR★2
CALE SANDERS JR.SMUS★3UNR
LEONARD PAYNE JR.COLORADODL★2UNR
MATT LAWSONNORTHWESTERNDL★3★3
ANDRES FOXMEMPHISDL★4★4
DA'MARCUS JOHNSONEASTERN WASHINGTONDEUNR★3
JOSH KELLYWASHINGTON STATEWR★3★4
EMARI PAITALABAMA A&MDB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES71%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS79%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#83NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8259COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
723 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST26% BACK26th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG26% BACK26th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR98%98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR20%20th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST73%73th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE