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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SEC|KIRBY SMART|—RECORD11-3|CONF—
GEORGIA#6 AP 5 FPISEC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
99FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
87%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
90%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-15IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#124 BC / 32
BC RATIO
76%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs9.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+12.8
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE93
PERFORMANCE93
TALENT94
CONTINUITY87
DEFENSE92
PERFORMANCE92
TALENT95
CONTINUITY90
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
75MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
7 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HCLEMSON#14W 34-3978484+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HTENNESSEE TECH—W 48-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14AKENTUCKY—W 13-12836666+30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28AALABAMA#17L 34-411009898-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HAUBURN—W 31-13887676+20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HMISSISSIPPI STATE—W 41-31763535+61BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19ATEXAS#4W 30-15989595+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HFLORIDA—W 34-20928686+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9AOLE MISS#11L 10-28869999-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HTENNESSEE#9W 31-17889494+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HMASSACHUSETTS—W 59-214144+92BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HGEORGIA TECH—W 44-42675151+45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
15DEC 7ATEXAS#4W 22-19989595+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 2HNOTRE DAME#2L 10-23939595+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB75TAL99PERF75RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
CARSON BECKQB SERET
★4★49787%+33HELD
14
GUNNER STOCKTONQB SERET
★4—5713%+34—
5
JADEN RASHADAQB JUPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
★4★300%-40FELL
26
COLLIN DRAKEQB JURET
UNR—00%——
12
RYAN PUGLISIQB JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
27
SAM BUSHQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
17
COLTER GINNQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB68TAL97PERF68RET22ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 22 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
TREVOR ETIENNERB JUPORTAL · FLORIDA
★4★49038%+21HELD
3
NATE FRAZIERRB JUNO SNAPS
★4—8529%-6—
32
CASH JONESRB SERET
★5—7620%+30—
22
BRANSON ROBINSONRB JURET
★4★3526%-38FELL
5
CHAUNCEY BOWENSRB JUNO SNAPS
★4—363%-54—
2
RODERICK ROBINSON IIRB JURET
★4—302%+33—
20
DWIGHT PHILLIPS JR.RB JUNO SNAPS
★4—232%——
31
WADE PENNRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—90%——
45
JACOB HARDIERB JURET
UNR—00%——
30
GANNON HEARSTRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
38
BRANDON MATHISRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE77TAL92PERF76RET75ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 56 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
ARIAN SMITHWR SERET
★5—9627%+12—
6
DOMINIC LOVETTWR SERET
★4★49525%+25HELD
86
DILLON BELLWR SERET
★3—9023%-11—
4
OSCAR DELPTE SERET
★4—8836%+14—
7
LAWSON LUCKIETE SERET
★4—8432%+14—
84
BEN YUROSEKTE SENO SNAPS
★3—8029%+15—
16
LONDON HUMPHREYSWR SEPORTAL · VANDERBILT
★3★47111%+33ROSE
8
COLBIE YOUNGWR SEPORTAL · MIAMI
UNR★4595%+18EMERGED
3
ANTHONY EVANS IIIWR SERET
★4★3544%-22FELL
1
NITRO TUGGLEWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★3412%—FELL
23
JADEN REDDELLTE JUNO SNAPS
★4—322%——
83
COLE SPEERWR SERET
★3—321%——
0
SACOVIE WHITE-HELTONWR JUNO SNAPS
★4—301%——
82
COLTON HEINRICHTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—241%——
2
MICHAEL JACKSON IIIWR SEPORTAL · USC
★4★3130%+17FELL
89
HENRY DELPTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
37
IZAYAH REEVESWR SORET
UNR—00%——
39
MILES THORNTONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
42
PATRICK HESTERTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
29
LUKE BENNETTWR JURET
UNR—00%——
80
BRANDON MOODYWR JURET
UNR—00%——
41
DAVID LALAIANTE SERET
UNR—00%——
81
JEREMY BELLWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
28
WALTER BLANCHARDWR SERET
UNR—00%——
43
MAREK BRILEYWR SORET
UNR—00%——
36
MATTHEW GRACHENWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
46
DANNY CURRANWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
48
COOPER JOHNSONTE JURET
UNR—00%——
47
WILL TAYLORWR SERET
UNR—00%——
▸OL76TAL93PERF76RET99n=8 · 3 METRICS · 23 OBS
▸DL70TAL94PERF70RET91n=9 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
▸LB76TAL96PERF76RET95n=7 · 11 METRICS · 54 OBS
▸DB61TAL95PERF62RET85n=7 · 8 METRICS · 40 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS20 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ELLIS ROBINSON IVHS RECRUITCB★5UNR
JUSTIN WILLIAMSHS RECRUITLB★5UNR
KJ BOLDENHS RECRUITS★5UNR
JOSEPH JONAH-AJONYEHS RECRUITDL★5UNR
CHRIS COLEHS RECRUITLB★5UNR
NATE FRAZIERHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
DEMELLO JONESHS RECRUITS★4UNR
JADEN REDDELLHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
ONDRE EVANSHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
MICHAEL UINIHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN5 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LONDON HUMPHREYSVANDERBILTWR★3★4
TREVOR ETIENNEFLORIDARB★4★4
COLBIE YOUNGMIAMIWRUNR★4
JADEN RASHADAARIZONA STATEQB★4★4
XZAVIER MCLEODSOUTH CAROLINADL★4★4
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT41 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAMON DUMAS-JOHNSONKENTUCKYLB★4★4
MARVIN JONES JR.FLORIDA STATEDL★5★4
XAVIAN SOREY JR.ARKANSASLB★5★4
NYLAND GREENPURDUECB★4★3
CHAD LINDBERGRICEOL★4★3
JONATHAN JEFFERSONSMUDL★4★3
CJ MADDENPURDUEDE★4★3
CJ SMITHPURDUEWR★4★3
MEKHI MEWSHOUSTONWRUNR★3
ANDREW PAULJACKSONVILLE STATERB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES70%11 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS59%13 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#1NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
24OF 32 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9279COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1126 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST58% BACK58th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG58% BACK58th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST85%85th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE