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HOME›TEAMS›HOUSTON›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG 12|DANA HOLGORSEN|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
HOUSTON76 FPIB12 · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
65FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
71%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
60%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#553 BC / 18
BC RATIO
15%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
4-8ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-7.8
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE31
PERFORMANCE31
TALENT59
CONTINUITY71
DEFENSE27
PERFORMANCE27
TALENT76
CONTINUITY60
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
57MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HUTSA—W 17-14476464-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9ARICE—L 41-43282323+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HTCU—L 13-36877474-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HSAM HOUSTON—W 38-771414+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30ATEXAS TECH—L 28-49726868-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HWEST VIRGINIA—W 41-39647272-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HTEXAS#3L 24-31969696-67BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28AKANSAS STATE#18L 0-41519090-61BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4ABAYLOR—W 25-24672727+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HCINCINNATI—L 14-24643434-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HOKLAHOMA STATE#16L 30-43606969-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25AUCF—L 13-27625858-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB51TAL78PERF51RET0ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
DONOVAN SMITHQB SEPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
★3★39498%+23HELD
15
UI ALEQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—212%——
7
LUCAS COLEYQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
10
CALEB MCMICKLEQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
16
JETT HUFFQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
15
JAKE SOCKQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
17
INDIANA WIJAYQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB43TAL44PERF43RET35ROTATIONn=3 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
PARKER JENKINSRB JUNO SNAPS
★4★38542%-22FELL
21
STACY SNEEDRB SERET
★3—7529%+33—
24
TONY MATHIS JR.RB SENO SNAPS
★3★36923%-40HELD
23
BRANDON CAMPBELLRB JURET
★4—466%-34—
29
KELAN WALKERRB SERET
★3—00%+23—
39
SERGIO SNIDERRB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
6
RE'SHAUN SANFORD IIRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
35
MAURICE REEDRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
36
SHERMAN SMITHRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
40
STEVE POLKRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE37TAL59PERF49RET62ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
SAMUEL BROWNWR JURET
★4—9729%+5—
14
JOSEPH MANJACK IVWR SERET
★3★38621%+10HELD
17
MIKE O'LAUGHLINTE SEPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
★3★38555%-36HELD
2
MATTHEW GOLDENWR JURET
★4★48118%+14HELD
12
STEPHON JOHNSONWR SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
★3★37213%-1HELD
85
MATT BYRNESTE SERET
UNR★37137%-36EMERGED
11
DALTON CARNESWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★36912%+2EMERGED
1
JOSHUA HARDEMANWR SENO SNAPS
★3—545%-9—
87
BRYAN HENRYTE JURET
★3★3427%—HELD
83
PEYTON SAWYERWR SERET
★3—301%+5—
82
JONAH WILSONWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★3251%—FELL
89
LOGAN COMPTONTE JURET
★3★3242%—HELD
10
JA'KOBY BANKSWR SONO SNAPS
★3★360%—HELD
8
JA'RYAN WALLACEWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
81
ANTHONY GANGI JR.WR SERET
UNR—00%——
30
MIKAL HARRISON-PILOTWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
80
JETT RUNIONTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
86
DARSON HERMANTE SORET
UNR—00%——
2
CJ NELSONWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
34
DYLAN CADDLEWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
SAMUEL PADGITTWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
37
CHANCE PROSPERIEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
42
HUNTER TEICHMANWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL43TAL55PERF43RET89n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL58TAL77PERF58RET74n=11 · 7 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸LB45TAL62PERF45RET97n=5 · 11 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸DB51TAL81PERF51RET22n=11 · 6 METRICS · 48 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MIKAL HARRISON-PILOTHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
JONAH WILSONHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
PARKER JENKINSHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
JUSTIN BENTONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JA'KOBY BANKSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MICHAEL PATTERSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JETT RUNIONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
LATREVEON MCCUTCHINHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JAMAAL SHAWHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JOHNSLEY BARBASHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ISH HARRISTEXAS A&MLB★4★3
MALIK FLEMINGEAST CAROLINACB★3★3
TONY MATHISWEST VIRGINIARB★3★3
STEPHON JOHNSONOKLAHOMA STATEWR★3★3
DAVID UGWOEGBUOKLAHOMALB★4★3
ADARI HAULCYNEW MEXICOSUNR★3
DONOVAN SMITHTEXAS TECHQB★3★3
JAYLEN GARTHTEXASOT★4★3
AUBREY SMITHCOLORADOLB★3★3
BRIAN GEORGETEXAS A&MCBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT28 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CAM'RON JOHNSONMISSOURIOL★3★4
LANCE ROBINSONLOUISVILLEOL★3★3
MANNIE NUNNERYFLORIDALB★3★3
DEMARCUS GRIFFIN-TAYLORLOUISIANA TECHDB★3★3
CHAYSE TODDTEXAS STATEOL★3★3
TREVONTE SYLVESTERLOUISVILLEOL★3★3
KHIYON WAFERSTEPHEN F. AUSTINWR★3★3
DEREK BOWMANSOUTH FLORIDAOL★3★3
KEN SAVANAHLAMARLBUNRUNR
ART GREENELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES79%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS74%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#55NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
3OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8641COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2021 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST27% BACK27th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG27% BACK27th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR89%89th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST22%22th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE