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● LIVE|2023 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG TEN|TOM ALLEN|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
INDIANA78 FPIB1G · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
66FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
43%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#690 BC / 14
BC RATIO
13%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-7.8
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE46
PERFORMANCE46
TALENT75
CONTINUITY80
DEFENSE16
PERFORMANCE16
TALENT66
CONTINUITY43
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
64MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HOHIO STATE#10L 3-23999898-67BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 8HINDIANA STATE—W 41-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16HLOUISVILLE#19L 14-21807575-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HAKRON—W 29-272622+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30AMARYLAND—L 17-44698585-54BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14AMICHIGAN#1L 7-5291100100-69BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HRUTGERS—L 14-31565959-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28APENN STATE#13L 24-33919797-66BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HWISCONSIN—W 20-14797878-47BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AILLINOIS—L 45-48554444-13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HMICHIGAN STATE—L 21-24813434-3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25APURDUE—L 31-35663232-1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB60TAL88PERF60RET67ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
BRENDAN SORSBYQB JURET
★3★57767%-28ROSE
2
TAYVEN JACKSONQB SEPORTAL · TENNESSEE
★4★36633%+3FELL
12
BROC LOWRYQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
18
BLAZE MCKIBBINQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
12
ROMAN PURCELLQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
5
DEXTER WILLIAMS IIQB SERET
★3★300%-55HELD
▾RB49TAL79PERF49RET83ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
JAYLIN LUCASRB SERET
★3★38535%-6HELD
26
JOSH HENDERSONRB SERET
★3—7626%+24—
24
TRENT HOWLANDRB SERET
★3★37322%+9HELD
28
CHRISTIAN TURNERRB SEPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
★3★36515%-25HELD
33
DAVID HOLLOMANRB SORET
★3★3212%-3HELD
25
DANIEL WEEMSRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
36
REECE LOZANORB FRRET
★2—00%——
37
DECLAN MCMAHONRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE50TAL71PERF52RET55ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
DONAVEN MCCULLEYWR SERET
★4★39131%0FELL
4
DEQUECE CARTERWR SEPORTAL · FORDHAM
★2★48124%-5ROSE
82
BRADLEY ARCHERTE SEPORTAL · STANFORD
★3★37835%-18HELD
45
TREY WALKERTE SERET
UNR—7230%-19—
48
JAMES BOMBATE SERET
★3★36925%-33HELD
7
E.J. WILLIAMS JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★4—6814%-21—
9
CAMERON CAMPERWR SERET
UNR—6412%+20—
3
OMAR COOPER JR.WR JURET
★4—6110%+30—
ANDISON COBYWR SERET
★3—547%-48—
84
AARON STEINFELDTTE SORET
★3★35210%-42HELD
7
KAM PERRYWR SERET
★3★3423%—HELD
85
ANTHONY MILLERTE SENO SNAPS
★3★380%—HELD
80
BRODY FOLEYTE SERET
★3★450%—ROSE
49
ZAC SCOTTTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
87
SAM WESTTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
39
BRYCE HENDERSHOTTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
2
BRADY SIMMONSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★200%—EMERGED
10
DERIN MCCULLEYWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
19
JAQUEZ SMITHWR JURET
★4★300%—FELL
87
RYAN MILLERTE FRRET
★3—00%——
11
DERRICK BOHLERWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
83
ELI JOCHEMWR JURET
UNR—00%——
40
ORLANDO GREENLOWWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
17
JACKSON WASSERSTROMWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
CAMDEN JORDANWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
27
REECE BELLINWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL69TAL70PERF69RET98n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL34TAL76PERF34RET14n=9 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB40TAL50PERF40RET91n=3 · 10 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DB40TAL63PERF40RET54n=10 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS11 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TA'DERIUS COLLINSHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
AMARE FERRELLHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JORDAN SHAWHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
SAM WESTHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
ANTHONY MILLERHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
BUBBA JEFFRIESHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
AUSTIN BARRETTHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
BROC LOWRYHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
DERRICK BOHLERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
WILL LARKINSHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN14 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ANDRE CARTERWESTERN MICHIGANDL★3★4
DEQUECE CARTERFORDHAMWR★2★4
MARCUS BURRIS JR.TEXAS A&MDL★4★4
TAYVEN JACKSONTENNESSEEQB★4★4
JACOB MANGUM-FARRARSTANFORDLB★3★3
PHILIP BLIDITEXAS TECHDL★3★3
CHRISTIAN TURNERWAKE FORESTRB★3★3
E.J. WILLIAMSCLEMSONWRUNR★3
NICOLAS TOOMERSTANFORDCBUNR★3
JAMIER JOHNSONTEXASCB★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT37 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
AJ BARNERMICHIGANTE★3★4
DASAN MCCULLOUGHOKLAHOMALB★4★4
CONNOR BAZELAKBOWLING GREENQB★4★4
EMERY SIMMONSUTAHWR★3★3
SIO NOFOAGATOTO'AARIZONADL★3★3
CHRIS KEYS JR.MISSISSIPPI STATES★3★3
VON SWINTONEASTERN MICHIGANWR★3UNR
MALACHI HOLT-BENNETTUABWR★3★3
JACK TUTTLEMICHIGANQB★4★3
CHARLIE SPEGALBALL STATERB★2★2
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES52%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS67%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#69NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8645COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2223 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST34% BACK34th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG34% BACK34th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR98%98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR67%67th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST54%54th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE