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HOME›TEAMS›JACKSONVILLE STATE›2024TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
CONFERENCE USA|RICH RODRIGUEZ|—RECORD9-5|CONF—
JACKSONVILLE STATE72 FPICUSA · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
8FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
59%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
62%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+5IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1280 BC / 20
BC RATIO
10%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
9-4ACTUALvs9.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+10.8
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE47
PERFORMANCE47
TALENT47
CONTINUITY59
DEFENSE11
PERFORMANCE11
TALENT51
CONTINUITY62
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
28MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HCOASTAL CAROLINA—L 27-55342727+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7ALOUISVILLE—L 14-49748585-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14AEASTERN MICHIGAN—L 34-37211515+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HSOUTHERN MISS—W 44-73511+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4AKENNESAW STATE—W 63-24522+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 9HNEW MEXICO STATE—W 54-13777+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 23HMIDDLE TENNESSEE—W 42-201922+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10OCT 30ALIBERTY—W 31-21374747-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9ALOUISIANA TECH—W 44-37261818+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—W 34-31201717+28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HSAM HOUSTON—W 21-11182727+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AWESTERN KENTUCKY—L 17-19234242+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 6HWESTERN KENTUCKY—W 52-12234242+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 20HOHIO—L 27-30115353-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB53TAL10PERF53RET6ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
TYLER HUFFQB SEPORTAL · FURMAN
UNR★38093%+34EMERGED
7
LOGAN SMOTHERSQB SERET
★4★4316%-20HELD
1
ZION TURNERQB SEPORTAL · UCONN
★3★300%-27HELD
10
AJ WATKINSQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
8
TE'SEAN SMOOTQB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
12
CADEN CREELQB JURET
UNR—00%——
15
GREG JONESQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB57TAL72PERF57RET13ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
28
TRE STEWARTRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—9875%+19—
25
ANWAR LEWISRB SERET
UNR—5911%+16—
0
ANDREW PAULRB SEPORTAL · GEORGIA
★3★35810%-14HELD
34
MIKE FRANKLINRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—202%——
4
RON WIGGINSRB SERET
★3—202%+22—
24
ANTHONY BENJAMINRB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
6
JALEN LIKELYRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
35
TY WAYMONRB JURET
UNR—00%——
21
JUSTUS SAVAGERB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
26
ANDRE DEVINERB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
22
KHRISTIAN LANDORB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE42TAL54PERF44RET78ROTATIONn=10 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
17
SEAN BROWNTE SERET
★3★39144%+50—
81
JACOB BARRICKTE SERET
UNR★38031%-17EMERGED
17
CAM VAUGHNWR JURET
UNR★48022%+36EMERGED
1
MICHAEL PETTWAYWR SERET
UNR—7620%+13—
11
JORDAN MCCANTSWR SERET
★3★37015%+16HELD
3
BROCK RECHSTEINERWR SERET
UNR—6813%-3—
13
P.J. WELLSWR SERET
UNR—6712%-44—
13
PEARSON BALDWINTE SERET
UNR—6618%——
3
SAMARIO RUDOLPHWR SENO SNAPS
★2—566%+3—
7
JAROD BOWIEWR SERET
UNR★3546%+36EMERGED
4
DEMARCUS LACEYWR SEPORTAL · NORTH ALABAMA
★3★3525%—HELD
45
COLE FULLERTE JURET
UNR—466%——
4
SHANE PAYTON HODGESTE JURET
UNR—443%——
2
TAR'VARISH DAWSONWR SEPORTAL · COLORADO
★4★4271%-34HELD
17
NATE ZILLSTE FRRET
UNR—151%——
82
COLTON PITCHFORDWR JURET
UNR—00%——
87
AGHOGHO EYAFEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
14
BRANNON SPECTORWR SEPORTAL · CLEMSON
★3★300%-17HELD
16
DALLAN WRIGHTWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
29
CARTER LAMBERTWR JURET
UNR—00%——
27
JEREMIAH COLBERTWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
9
WYATT SONDERMANWR FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
18
SANTONIO JONESWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
JAXON SHUTTLESWORTHTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
ALEX MOORETE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL45TAL48PERF45RET64n=8 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL25TAL45PERF25RET63n=9 · 7 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸LB39TAL42PERF39RET52n=7 · 11 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸DB38TAL59PERF38RET49n=11 · 8 METRICS · 57 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JUSTUS SAVAGEHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
ANDRE DEVINEHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
DAYLAN MARTINHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
AMARE GRAYSONHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
MARC WOODSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JEREMIAH COLBERTHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ZEDRIC WASHINGTONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
NICK PACEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
AJ WATKINSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ALEX MOOREHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN13 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ANDREW PAULGEORGIARB★3★3
TAR'VARISH DAWSONCOLORADOWR★4★3
MORVEN JOSEPHFLORIDA ATLANTICEDGE★4★3
KAM SNELLGANNONSUNR★3
DEMARCUS LACEYNORTH ALABAMAWR★3★3
BRANNON SPECTORCLEMSONWR★3★3
REGINALD HUGHESOLE MISSLBUNR★3
JOSH KNAPPVMISUNR★3
ANTONIO CARTER IINOTRE DAMECBUNR★3
ZION TURNERUCONNQB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT38 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
XAVIER BAUSLEYWEST VIRGINIAOLUNR★3
CHRIS HARDIEOLE MISSDEUNR★3
KEKOURA TARNUEWEST VIRGINIASUNR★3
LARRY WORTH IIIARKANSASDBUNRUNR
KAMARI STEPHENSARKANSAS STATEDEUNR★3
DEVIN BALDWINMEMPHISDL★3★3
CAM WILLIAMSGEORGIA STATEEDGE★3UNR
STERLING GALBANMASSACHUSETTSWR★3★3
QUINZAVIOUS WARRENUTEPDLUNR★3
J'WAN EVANSNORTHERN ARIZONARBUNRUNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES57%11 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS70%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#128NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8198COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1914 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST40% BACK40th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG40% BACK40th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR64%64th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR6%6th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST49%49th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE