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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|MARK CARNEY|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
KENT STATE133 FPIMAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
7FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
45%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
59%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-18IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#930 BC / 22
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs3.0-9.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+2.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-12.3
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE18
PERFORMANCE18
TALENT34
CONTINUITY45
DEFENSE8
PERFORMANCE8
TALENT33
CONTINUITY59
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
38MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HMERRIMACK—W 21-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6ATEXAS TECH#7L 14-62809999-95BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HBUFFALO—L 28-31193030-26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20AFLORIDA STATE—L 10-66877070-66BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4AOKLAHOMA#13L 0-44919090-86BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HMASSACHUSETTS—W 42-61500+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18ATOLEDO—L 10-45466565-61BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HBOWLING GREEN—W 24-21231717-13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 5ABALL STATE—L 13-171733+1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 11AAKRON—W 42-35251414-10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 19HCENTRAL MICHIGAN—L 16-28122626-22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 28ANORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 35-31966-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB41TAL31PERF41RET6ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
DRU DESHIELDSQB JURET
★3—7881%+31—
7
CJ MONTESQB SENO SNAPS
★3★3428%-56HELD
15
DEVIN KARGMANQB JURET
★3★3346%-48HELD
2
NOLAN GOODQB FRTRUE FR
★3—253%——
14
DEANTE RUFFINQB FRTRUE FR
★3—233%——
10
JETT HILDINGQB FRRET
★2—00%——
17
RUEL TOMLINSONQB FRRET
UNR—00%-58—
▾RB45TAL16PERF45RET12ONE OWNERn=3 · 5 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
HUNTER HOPPERTONFB SERET
★2★38340%-57ROSE
5
GAVIN GARCIARB JURET
★3★38647%-29HELD
27
JORDAN NUBINRB SEPORTAL · MINNESOTA
UNR★37327%-28EMERGED
84
JAHZAE KIMBROUGHRB SORET
UNR—6217%-48—
25
DONOVAN DELANEY JR.RB SENO SNAPS
UNR—435%-62—
20
MARQUES HICKSRB JURET
★2—242%——
33
AYDEN HARRISRB SORET
★3—131%-33—
24
TARYAN MARTINRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
26
ANTHONY JEFFERYRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE55TAL41PERF56RET65ROTATIONn=8 · 7 METRICS · 39 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
WAYNE HARRISWR SORET
★3—8225%0—
18
DA'SHAWN MARTINWR JURET
★3★37923%+23HELD
89
TERIK MULDERTE SEPORTAL · LIMESTONE
UNR★37831%+43EMERGED
85
SEBASTIAN BROWNWR SERET
UNR★37217%-39EMERGED
8
CADE WOLFORDWR JURET
★3★46814%+36ROSE
11
CHRISTIAN BERRYTE SEPORTAL · DAVIDSON
UNR—6620%——
1
ARDELL BANKSWR JURET
★3★36310%+18HELD
3
JAY JAY ETHERIDGEWR JURET
★3—556%-27—
8
DA'REALYST CLARKWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—474%——
11
ZY'AIRE FLETCHERTE FRTRUE FR
★3—404%——
13
DAKOTA TAYLORTE SORET
★3—343%——
80
TEAUNN HUNTERWR FRTRUE FR
★3—181%——
81
DASH DORSEYWR SORET
★3—151%——
86
MATTHEW MAXEYWR FRTRUE FR
★2—60%——
45
TOMMY ARNOLDTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—40%——
23
MAURICE STEPHENSWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
4
JARED KELLEYWR JURET
★3—00%——
19
ALI FISHERWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
29
JACKSON LOCKEWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
35
JOSEPH FEDERERWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
31
CHRISTIAN JACKSONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
37
HOLTZ MAINETE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL32TAL27PERF32RET34n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL39TAL46PERF39RET60n=11 · 7 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB38TAL22PERF38RET65n=9 · 11 METRICS · 59 OBS
▸DB35TAL34PERF35RET53n=9 · 6 METRICS · 47 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TARYAN MARTINHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
MAURICE STEPHENSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DEANTE RUFFINHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JOEL CORDOBAHS RECRUITS★3UNR
TEAUNN HUNTERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DARIAN BLACHEWICZHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
BUDDYROW GARRERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TREY RUBINSTEINHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
RAFAEL TERRERO JR.HS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ZY'AIRE FLETCHERHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JELANI DAVISSOUTHERNDLUNR★3
JORDAN NUBINMINNESOTARBUNR★3
SEMAJ CROSSLAFAYETTESUNR★3
TERIK MULDERLIMESTONETEUNR★3
RICO STEELEBOWLING GREENIOLUNR★3
MATTHEW PAJUSTEBUFFALOIOLUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT37 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOSH BAKAUABS★2★2
JIMTO OBIDEGWUNORTH TEXASOL★3★3
STEPHEN DALEYINDIANADL★3★3
ROCCO NICHOLLSOUTH FLORIDALB★3★3
KAM OLDSKENTUCKYLB★3UNR
KADEN BEATTYWASHINGTON STATEDT★3★2
JAYDEN STUDIOJAMES MADISONLB★3★3
CHRISHON MCCRAYMICHIGAN STATEWR★2★2
ELIJAH WILLIAMSWESTERN KENTUCKYOL★3★3
TOMMY ULATOWSKIKENNESAW STATEQB★2★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES73%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS76%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#93NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8249COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1230 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST30% BACK30th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG30% BACK30th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR34%34th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR6%6th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST53%53th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE