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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
CONFERENCE USA|JAMEY CHADWELL|—RECORD8-4|CONF—
LIBERTY97 FPICUSA · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
37FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
70%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
77%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1050 BC / 19
BC RATIO
5%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
8-3ACTUALvs7.2-3.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+7.5
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE20
PERFORMANCE20
TALENT49
CONTINUITY70
DEFENSE24
PERFORMANCE24
TALENT33
CONTINUITY77
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 1 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
21MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
26MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
+5REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HCAMPBELL—W 41-24————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7ANEW MEXICO STATE—W 30-24777+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HUTEP—W 28-101233+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HEAST CAROLINA—W 35-24474545+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28AAPP STATE—UPCOMING392626+21STILL TO COME
7OCT 8HFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—W 31-24201717+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 23AKENNESAW STATE—L 24-27522+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10OCT 30HJACKSONVILLE STATE—L 21-3184545+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9AMIDDLE TENNESSEE—W 37-171922+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AMASSACHUSETTS—W 35-344144+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HWESTERN KENTUCKY—W 38-21234242+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ASAM HOUSTON—L 18-20182727+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 4HBUFFALO—L 7-2693535+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB40TAL81PERF40RET92ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
KAIDON SALTERQB SERET
★4★37890%+29FELL
18
RYAN BURGERQB JUPORTAL · APP STATE
★3★3348%-46HELD
10
NATE HAMPTONQB SERET
★3★3223%—HELD
25
MILES MCEACHINQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
4
JAYDEN BRADFORDQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB44TAL49PERF44RET64ONE OWNERn=3 · 5 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
20
QUINTON COOLEYRB SERET
★3★39047%+25HELD
0
BILLY LUCASRB SERET
★3—8233%+19—
8
BRENTON WILLIAMSRB JUPORTAL · AUBURN
★3★3546%—HELD
30
ETHAN CRISPRB JUPORTAL · VANDERBILT
★3★3504%—HELD
24
VAUGHN BLUERB JURET
UNR—6314%+22—
1
JULIAN GRAYRB SEPORTAL · NC STATE
★3★4536%+37ROSE
21
CADEN WILLIAMSRB FRTRUE FR
★3—323%-50—
23
JAMES JOINTER JR.RB SERET
★3★3282%+13HELD
26
JAYLIN BELFORDRB SERET
UNR—00%——
33
KYLE HANKSRB SORET
UNR—00%——
2
VICTOR VENNRB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE28TAL31PERF37RET58ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
84
JACOB JENKINSTE SERET
★2—8845%+46—
15
BENTLEY HANSHAWTE SERET
★2—8542%+17—
21
TREON SIBLEYWR SERET
★2—7622%+28—
8
TYSON MOBLEYWR SEPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
★2★37522%-20ROSE
5
ELIJAH CANIONWR SEPORTAL · PURDUE
★3★37219%+17HELD
6
REESE SMITHWR SERET
★3★36815%-9HELD
9
DONTE LEE JR.WR SEPORTAL · SHAW
UNR★36311%-10EMERGED
48
CALEB RYANTE SERET
UNR—467%——
83
AUSTIN HENDERSONTE SERET
★3—436%-6—
1
DARIUS COPELANDWR JURET
UNR—403%——
1
KYLEN AUSTINWR SERET
★3—322%——
10
JON MONTEIROWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—130%——
2
MARKEL FORTENBERRYWR SERET
★3★3110%—HELD
85
CONNIE HEWITT IITE FRTRUE FR
★3★370%—HELD
17
BO BURKLOWTE JURET
★3—40%——
11
VICTOR JONES JR.WR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
22
COLEMAN BAKERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
19
ELI SISSONTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
87
CALEB BOTCHWAYWR SORET
UNR—00%——
27
CLAYTON SHEPLERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
1
CESAR CARRASCOWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
88
CARSON VINESWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
89
JAMAURI KNOXWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
16
ERIC SMITHWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▸OL40TAL49PERF40RET76n=8 · 3 METRICS · 22 OBS
▸DL30TAL48PERF30RET87n=11 · 7 METRICS · 46 OBS
▸LB39TAL13PERF39RET57n=7 · 11 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸DB35TAL33PERF35RET72n=11 · 8 METRICS · 61 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAYDEN BRADFORDHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
ERIC SMITHHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DEVIN HENDERSONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
CADEN WILLIAMSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
ELI SISSONHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
RONALD MOOREHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JAMAURI KNOXHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
IZAIAH TAYLORHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
KAIDON WHIDBYHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
CONNIE HEWITT IIHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRENTON WILLIAMSAUBURNEDGE★3★3
JASON DUCLONAUCFCB★3★3
DOMINICK HILLTEMPLECB★3★3
ALEX OLIVERVMICBUNR★3
TYSON MOBLEYCOASTAL CAROLINAWR★2★3
ETHAN CRISPVANDERBILTLB★3★3
D.J. GETHNORTH CAROLINAOT★3★3
ELI HALLWAKE FORESTDL★3★3
AIDAN VAUGHANWISCONSINLB★3★3
CHARLES YATES JR.OLD DOMINIONCBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT29 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHASE MITCHELLVANDERBILTOL★2★3
KOBE SINGLETONOREGON STATEDB★3★3
PRESTON HODGECOLORADOCBUNR★4
KENDY CHARLESDUKEDT★3★4
CJ DANIELSLSUWR★3★4
BRYAN WHITEHEADARKANSAS STATEDEUNR★2
JAYLON JIMMERSONSAM HOUSTONDBUNR★3
AAKIL WASHINGTONSOUTH ALABAMADE★3★3
ERROL ROGERS JR.SE LOUISIANAWR★3★2
JOHNATHAN BENNETTTHE CITADELQB★3★2
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES12%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS60%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#105NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 19 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8401COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1818 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST82% BACK82th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG82% BACK82th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR76%76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR92%92th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST72%72th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE