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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|DON BROWN|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
MASSACHUSETTS127 FPIMAC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
45FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
56%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
73%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+2IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1270 BC / 7
BC RATIO
13%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
3-9ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-14.7
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE28
PERFORMANCE28
TALENT23
CONTINUITY56
DEFENSE2
PERFORMANCE2
TALENT39
CONTINUITY73
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
47MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 26ANEW MEXICO STATE—W 41-30174545-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
1SEP 2AAUBURN—L 14-59887373-67BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HMIAMI (OH)—L 28-41215656-50BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16AEASTERN MICHIGAN—L 17-19161818-12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HNEW MEXICO—L 31-341577-1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HARKANSAS STATE—L 28-52343737-31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HTOLEDO—L 24-41376161-55BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14APENN STATE#13L 0-63919797-91BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28AARMY—W 21-1414141-35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HMERRIMACK—W 31-21————NON-FBS OPPONENT
12NOV 18ALIBERTY#25L 25-4997575-69BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HUCONN—L 18-31331010-4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB37TAL8PERF37RET1ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
TAISUN PHOMMACHANHQB SEPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH
★4★27565%-19FELL
5
CARLOS DAVISQB SEPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA
★3—6129%+32—
5
AHMAD HASTONQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3316%—HELD
12
BRADY OLSONQB SERET
★3★271%-51FELL
18
CONNER WHITSONQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB38TAL66PERF38RET97ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
KAY'RON LYNCH-ADAMSRB SERET
★3★39777%+22HELD
13
GREG DESROSIERS JR.RB SERET
UNR★36621%+32EMERGED
21
JALEN JOHNRB SEPORTAL · ARIZONA
★3★3283%-40HELD
24
TIM BALDWIN JR.RB SORET
★3—00%-6—
5
DONTA WHACKRB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
32
JACKSON PARADISRB SOPORTAL · BUFFALO
★3★300%—HELD
35
DYMEIR STILLRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE41TAL20PERF44RET55ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
GINO CAMPIOTTITE SERET
UNR—9777%+38—
7
GEORGE JOHNSON IIIWR SERET
★3★38929%-1HELD
85
ANTHONY SIMPSONWR SEPORTAL · ARIZONA
UNR★38928%+29EMERGED
7
MARK POPEWR SEPORTAL · JACKSON STATE
★4★38525%-9FELL
9
CHRISTIAN WELLSWR JUPORTAL · APP STATE
★3★36210%+13HELD
ENI FALAYITE SERET
★3★36017%—HELD
12
SHAWN HARRIS JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—546%+21—
1
ISAAC ROSSWR SERET
UNR—352%-27—
80
MATT SMITHTE SEPORTAL · DUKE
★3★3334%—HELD
25
JACKSON MANNINGTE JURET
★3★3252%—HELD
82
JASON WEIRTE JURET
UNR—80%——
17
DALLAS ELLIOTTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
6
ZAMAR WISEWR SORET
★3—00%——
2
JACQUON GIBSONWR SERET
★2★300%-49ROSE
10
T.Y. HARDINGWR SERET
★2—00%——
85
MAGNUS VON SALDERNTE SERET
UNR—00%——
22
VICTOR MAFOWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
83
OTT ERIC OTTENDERWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL45TAL21PERF45RET79n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL35TAL35PERF35RET83n=9 · 7 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸LB25TAL24PERF25RET68n=8 · 10 METRICS · 41 OBS
▸DB49TAL52PERF49RET68n=11 · 6 METRICS · 52 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS6 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DONOVAN DYSONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ZACHARY ANDERSONHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
AHMAD HASTONHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
CHRISTIAN LEBRUNHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JYREE ROBERTSHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
PEYTON MILLERHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN19 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
STEVEN ORTIZMINNESOTAS★4★3
JALEN HARRELLMIAMIS★4★3
SHAMBRE JACKSONFLORIDA STATEEDGE★4★3
TYLER MARTINARIZONALB★3★3
JERMAINE WIGGINS JRARIZONAATHUNR★3
JERRY ROBERTSARIZONALBUNR★3
ANTHONY SIMPSONARIZONAATHUNR★3
MARK POPEJACKSON STATEWR★4★3
JALEN JOHNARIZONARB★3★3
MATT SMITHDUKETE★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT26 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOSH WALLACEMICHIGANDB★3★3
MAX LONGMANINDIANAOL★2★3
JOSIAH JOHNSONOKLAHOMA STATETE★3★3
VIC ALOBWEDENORTH TEXASDL★2★2
JAKE ORLANDOBUFFALOTE★3UNR
RICO ARNOLDGEORGIA STATEWR★2★2
ONUMA DIEKEELONWR★3★3
JERMAINE JOHNSONDUQUESNEWRUNR★3
AARON ALEXANDERMICHIGAN STATELB★3★3
JALEN MACKIEELIGIBILITY UPLB★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES37%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS51%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#127NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 7 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8272COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2119 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
32TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
8
9
5
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-6 TO +5 W
IMPROVED11 OF 32
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST68% BACK68th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG68% BACK68th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR79%79th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR1%1th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST68%68th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE