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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|CHUCK MARTIN|—RECORD9-5|CONF—
MIAMI (OH)80 FPIMAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
20FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
87%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
85%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#820 BC / 25
BC RATIO
1%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-5ACTUALvs7.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+3.7
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE25
PERFORMANCE25
TALENT55
CONTINUITY87
DEFENSE43
PERFORMANCE43
TALENT44
CONTINUITY85
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
33MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31ANORTHWESTERN—L 6-13612424+25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HCINCINNATI—L 16-27574747+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ANOTRE DAME#2L 3-28939595-46BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HMASSACHUSETTS—W 23-204144+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5ATOLEDO—L 20-30374141+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 38-14211515+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HOHIO—W 30-20115353-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HCENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 46-7151111+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 5ABALL STATE—W 27-211466+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 13HKENT STATE—W 34-7900+49BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 19HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 20-9103838+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ABOWLING GREEN—W 28-12174343+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 7HOHIO—L 3-38115353-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 28ACOLORADO STATE—W 43-17303030+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB13TAL86PERF13RET100ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
BRETT GABBERTQB SERET
★3★39095%+28HELD
12
HENRY HESSONQB SERET
★3—325%-52—
18
MADDOX KOPPQB SERET
★3★300%-44HELD
19
MATT MACLEODQB SORET
★2—00%——
13
THOMAS GOTKOWSKIQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB37TAL30PERF37RET86ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
KEYON MOZEERB SERET
★3★38338%-5HELD
8
KEVIN DAVISRB SERET
★2★28034%+16HELD
2
DYLAN DOWNINGRB SEPORTAL · PURDUE
★3★36114%-34HELD
6
JORDAN BRUNSONRB SERET
★3—5711%+31—
23
NATE MILANOWSKIRB JURET
UNR—141%+33—
9
D'SHAWNTAE JONESRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
9
KENNY TRACYRB SERET
★3—00%+12—
24
DANNY DUNLOPRB JURET
UNR—00%——
21
TITO GLASS JR.RB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE44TAL65PERF51RET70ONE OWNERn=6 · 7 METRICS · 39 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
JAVON TRACYWR SERET
★3★39726%+22HELD
1
REGGIE VIRGILWR SERET
★3★49525%+29ROSE
15
CADE MCDONALDWR SERET
UNR—9122%+14—
1
ANDRE JOHNSONWR SEPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
★3★37413%+3HELD
89
JACK COLDIRONTE SERET
★3—7154%+3—
7
KAM PERRYWR SENO SNAPS
★3★37010%-28HELD
4
CONNOR BRIGGSTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—5321%——
85
PRESTON DANIELTE SEPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
UNR★35121%-37EMERGED
11
COLE WEAVERWR JURET
UNR★3452%—EMERGED
18
BRAYLON ISOMWR SONO SNAPS
★3—361%——
86
BRIAN SHANETE SERET
UNR—274%——
10
LYNEL BILLUPS-WILLIAMSWR JURET
★3—150%——
16
RYAN SIMSWR SORET
★3—00%——
81
JACKSON IZZARDWR JURET
UNR—00%——
48
CHASE BECKERTE JURET
UNR—00%——
22
CHRISTIAN SCHOMERWR SORET
UNR—00%——
20
TOMMY GALLAGHERWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
87
ZACH MEEKSTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
89
HUNTER TEALTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
84
VAUGHN JOHNSONTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
80
MICHAEL PARRISHWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL42TAL43PERF42RET93n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL36TAL41PERF36RET81n=8 · 7 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸LB43TAL45PERF43RET98n=5 · 11 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸DB41TAL46PERF41RET81n=8 · 6 METRICS · 43 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS23 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JJ HAMMONDSHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
TITO GLASS JR.HS RECRUITRB★3UNR
BRAYLON ISOMHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JOSH RINGERHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
D'SHAWNTAE JONESHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
ZACH MEEKSHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JACOB SCHORSCHHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
BRAYLON LITTLEJOHNHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KALEB MARTINHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
CARTER HERRIMANHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN2 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DYLAN DOWNINGPURDUERB★3★3
PRESTON DANIELFLORIDA STATETEUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT28 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JACQUEZ WARRENROBERT MORRISDB★3UNR
CAIDEN WOULLARDOKLAHOMADL★3★4
RASHAD AMOSOLE MISSRB★3★3
GAGE LARVADAINSOUTH CAROLINAWRUNR★3
AVEON SMITHALABAMA A&MQB★3★3
MASON MOORELEHIGHS★3★3
YAHSYN MCKEEELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
MICHAEL DOWELLELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
AUSTIN ERTLELIGIBILITY UPDL★2—
JOE WILKINS JR.ELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES61%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS54%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#82NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 25 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8313COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
511 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST49% BACK49th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG49% BACK49th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR93%93th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST81%81th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE