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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG TEN|JIM HARBAUGH|—RECORD15-0|CONF—
MICHIGAN#1 AP 1 FPIB1G · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
91FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
73%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1711 BC / 27
BC RATIO
47%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
13-0ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+27.2
13 wins against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE87
PERFORMANCE87
TALENT90
CONTINUITY73
DEFENSE87
PERFORMANCE87
TALENT84
CONTINUITY80
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE15 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
60MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
5 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HEAST CAROLINA—W 30-3451717+83BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HUNLV—W 35-7145555+45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HBOWLING GREEN—W 31-6182929+71BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HRUTGERS—W 31-7565959+41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30ANEBRASKA—W 45-7855151+49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7AMINNESOTA—W 52-10595353+47BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HINDIANA—W 52-7663131+69BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AMICHIGAN STATE—W 49-0813434+66BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HPURDUE—W 41-13663232+68BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11APENN STATE#13W 24-15919797+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AMARYLAND—W 31-24698585+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HOHIO STATE#10W 30-24999898+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 2AIOWA#24W 26-0716666+34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 1HALABAMA#5W 27-201009595+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 8HWASHINGTON#2W 34-13829191+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB69TAL93PERF69RET93ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
J.J. MCCARTHYQB JURET
★5—8691%+16—
13
JACK TUTTLEQB SEPORTAL · INDIANA
★4★3305%-9FELL
4
JAYDEN DENEGALQB SERET
★3★3192%—HELD
8
DAVIS WARRENQB SERET
UNR★3172%—EMERGED
1
ALEX ORJIQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
15
JACK GRUSSERQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB42TAL94PERF42RET97ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
BLAKE CORUMRB SERET
★4—9749%+25—
7
DONOVAN EDWARDSRB SERET
★4—9237%+15—
20
KALEL MULLINGSRB SERET
★4—537%+33—
7
BENJAMIN HALLRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3363%-19HELD
34
LEON FRANKLINRB SERET
UNR—332%-44—
21
TAVIERRE DUNLAPRB SERET
★3★3211%+19HELD
23
CJ STOKESRB JURET
★3★3121%-12HELD
37
DANNY HUGHESRB SERET
UNR—60%——
4
COLE CABANARB JUNO SNAPS
★4★360%—FELL
49
HENRY DONOHUERB SERET
UNR—00%——
24
BRYSON KUZDZALRB SENO SNAPS
★2★200%—HELD
▾WR/TE58TAL86PERF57RET67ROTATIONn=7 · 8 METRICS · 41 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
89
AJ BARNERTE SEPORTAL · INDIANA
★3★49842%-26ROSE
18
COLSTON LOVELANDTE JURET
★4—9638%+20—
6
CORNELIUS JOHNSONWR SERET
★4—9035%+3—
1
ROMAN WILSONWR SERET
★4—8430%+30—
8
TYLER MORRISWR SERET
★4★36716%+23FELL
44
MAX BREDESONTE SERET
UNR—6512%+11—
4
SEMAJ MORGANWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3568%+33HELD
6
FREDRICK MOOREWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★3495%—FELL
17
JOSH BEETHAMTE SERET
UNR—454%——
17
MARLIN KLEINTE SERET
★3—393%——
4
DARRIUS CLEMONSWR SERET
★4★3332%—FELL
0
KARMELLO ENGLISHWR SENO SNAPS
★4★3332%—FELL
88
MATTHEW HIBNERTE SERET
★4★3281%—FELL
81
PEYTON O'LEARYWR SERET
UNR—211%——
83
ZACK MARSHALLTE SENO SNAPS
★3—130%——
85
CRISTIAN DIXONWR JURET
★4★3100%—FELL
45
NOAH HOWESTE SERET
UNR—80%——
42
JALEN HOFFMANTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
17
AMORION WALKERWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
39
JOE TAYLORWR SERET
UNR—00%——
86
ZACH PETERSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
10
EAMONN DENNISWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
84
DALE CHESSONWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
15
JAKE THAWWR SERET
UNR—00%——
27
CHRISTIAN BARTHOLOMEWWR SERET
UNR—00%——
30
WILL ROLAPPWR SERET
UNR—00%——
43
DEAKON TONIELLITE SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
85
LOGAN FORBESWR SERET
UNR—00%——
10
KENDRICK BELLWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▸OL59TAL92PERF59RET63n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL75TAL87PERF75RET87n=10 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
▸LB60TAL83PERF60RET80n=5 · 11 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸DB64TAL80PERF64RET67n=10 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ENOW ETTAHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
COLE CABANAHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
JYAIRE HILLHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
KARMELLO ENGLISHHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
BRANDYN HILLMANHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
EVAN LINKHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
AMIR HERRINGHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
SEMAJ BRIDGEMANHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
NATHAN EFOBIHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
CAM CALHOUNHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ERNEST HAUSMANNNEBRASKALB★3★4
LADARIUS HENDERSONARIZONA STATEIOL★3★4
JOSAIAH STEWARTCOASTAL CAROLINAEDGE★3★4
AJ BARNERINDIANATE★3★4
DRAKE NUGENTSTANFORDIOL★3★4
MYLES HINTONSTANFORDOT★4★4
JOSH WALLACEMASSACHUSETTSCB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT29 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
R.J. MOTENFLORIDALB★4UNR
EYABI OKIE-ANOMACHARLOTTEDLUNRUNR
TAYLOR UPSHAWARIZONALB★3★3
ANDREL ANTHONYOKLAHOMAWR★3★3
GEORGE ROOKSBOSTON COLLEGEDL★4★3
ERICK ALLIOWATE★4★4
A.J. HENNINGNORTHWESTERNWR★4★3
JULIUS WELSCHOFCHARLOTTEDL★3★3
CADE MCNAMARAIOWAQB★4★4
ALAN BOWMANOKLAHOMA STATEQB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES5%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS52%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#17NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
11OF 27 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8827COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
913 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST82% BACK82th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG82% BACK82th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR63%63th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR93%93th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST67%67th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE