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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG TEN|SHERRONE MOORE|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
MICHIGAN30 FPIB1G · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
89FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
67%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-10IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1617 BC / 26
BC RATIO
48%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
7-5ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+1.8
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE51
PERFORMANCE51
TALENT79
CONTINUITY67
DEFENSE80
PERFORMANCE80
TALENT86
CONTINUITY80
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
69MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
6 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HFRESNO STATE—W 30-10363737+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HTEXAS#4L 12-31989595-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HARKANSAS STATE—W 28-18382323+58BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HUSC—W 27-24908383-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HMINNESOTA—W 27-24688080+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5AWASHINGTON—L 17-27755757+24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19AILLINOIS#16L 7-21557777+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HMICHIGAN STATE—W 24-17713333+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HOREGON#3L 17-38969999-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9AINDIANA#10L 15-20599292-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HNORTHWESTERN—W 50-6612424+57BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AOHIO STATE#1W 13-1099100100-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 31HALABAMA#17W 19-131009898-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB75TAL42PERF75RET100ONE OWNERn=3 · 7 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
DAVIS WARRENQB SERET
UNR★37365%+19EMERGED
13
JACK TUTTLEQB SERET
★4★35418%-12FELL
1
ALEX ORJIQB SERET
★3★35417%-42HELD
4
JAYDEN DENEGALQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
15
ANTHONY ARNOUQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
2
JADYN DAVISQB SONO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
▾RB55TAL93PERF55RET93ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 20 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
20
KALEL MULLINGSRB SERET
★4—8943%+29—
7
DONOVAN EDWARDSRB SERET
★4—8842%+5—
7
BENJAMIN HALLRB JURET
★3★3558%-54HELD
23
JORDAN MARSHALLRB JUNO SNAPS
★4—506%+6—
25
MICAH KA'APANARB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
21
TAVIERRE DUNLAPRB SERET
★3★300%+29HELD
24
BRYSON KUZDZALRB SERET
★2★200%—HELD
34
LEON FRANKLINRB SERET
UNR—00%-44—
4
COLE CABANARB JURET
★4★300%—FELL
49
HENRY DONOHUERB SERET
UNR—00%——
36
TOMAS O'MEARARB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE47TAL74PERF45RET84ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
17
MARLIN KLEINTE SERET
★3—8734%-27—
18
COLSTON LOVELANDTE JURET
★4—8634%+34—
8
TYLER MORRISWR SERET
★4★37625%-3FELL
44
MAX BREDESONTE SERET
UNR—7220%-3—
4
SEMAJ MORGANWR SERET
★3★37120%-9HELD
0
KENDRICK BELLWR SERET
★3—7019%-61—
81
PEYTON O'LEARYWR SERET
UNR—6816%-13—
6
FREDRICK MOOREWR JURET
★4★36011%-26FELL
80
HOGAN HANSENTE JUNO SNAPS
★4—549%-5—
82
C.J. CHARLESTONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—475%——
17
AMORION WALKERWR SERET
★3★3414%—HELD
83
ZACK MARSHALLTE SERET
★3—342%——
9
CHANNING GOODWINWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—151%——
42
JALEN HOFFMANTE SERET
UNR—111%——
39
JOE TAYLORWR SERET
UNR—70%——
84
DALE CHESSONWR SERET
★3—00%——
45
NOAH HOWESTE SERET
UNR—00%——
46
BRANDON MANNTE JURET
★3—00%——
43
DEAKON TONIELLITE SERET
★4—00%——
86
BRADY PRIESKORNTE SONO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
8
I'MARION STEWARTWR JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
85
LOGAN FORBESWR SERET
UNR—00%——
35
DREW HICKMOTTWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
KALEB SCHLECHTWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL59TAL88PERF59RET53n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL71TAL85PERF71RET93n=7 · 8 METRICS · 37 OBS
▸LB58TAL92PERF58RET61n=7 · 11 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸DB60TAL84PERF60RET76n=9 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS23 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN MARSHALLHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
JADYN DAVISHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
ANDREW SPRAGUEHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
BRADY PRIESKORNHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
LUGARD EDOKPAYIHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
JO'ZIAH EDMONDHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
BLAKE FRAZIERHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
COLE SULLIVANHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
JACOB ODENHS RECRUITS★4UNR
I'MARION STEWARTHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN2 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAISHAWN BARHAMMARYLANDLB★4★4
JOSH PRIEBENORTHWESTERNIOL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT33 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KEON SABBALABAMADB★4★4
DJ WALLER JR.KENTUCKYCB★3★3
JOSH BEETHAMGEORGIA TECHTEUNRUNR
KARMELLO ENGLISHWEST GEORGIAWR★4★3
DARRIUS CLEMONSOREGON STATEWR★4★3
MATTHEW HIBNERSMUTE★4★3
JEROME NICHOLSFLORIDA A&MLBUNRUNR
CJ STOKESCHARLOTTERB★3★3
JOEY VELAZQUEZOHIO STATELB★3UNR
TREVOR KEEGANNFL DRAFT R5OL★4—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES60%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS58%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#16NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
17OF 26 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9027COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
717 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST32% BACK32th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG32% BACK32th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR53%53th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST76%76th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE