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HOME›TEAMS›NORTHERN ILLINOIS›2024TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
MOUNTAIN WEST|THOMAS HAMMOCK|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
NORTHERN ILLINOIS86 FPIMWC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
10FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
84%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
88%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-13IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#990 BC / 24
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.8
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE29
PERFORMANCE29
TALENT28
CONTINUITY84
DEFENSE68
PERFORMANCE68
TALENT35
CONTINUITY88
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
34MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HWESTERN ILLINOIS—W 54-15————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7ANOTRE DAME#2W 16-14939595-57BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HBUFFALO—L 20-2393535+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28ANC STATE—L 17-24725959-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HMASSACHUSETTS—W 34-204144+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12ABOWLING GREEN—W 17-7174343-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HTOLEDO—L 6-13374141-3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26ABALL STATE—L 23-251466+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 6AWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 42-28312222+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 13HAKRON—W 29-162688+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 19AMIAMI (OH)—L 9-20204949-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HCENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 24-16151111+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 23AFRESNO STATE—W 28-20363737+1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB42TAL35PERF42RET66ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
ETHAN HAMPTONQB SERET
★3★37666%-22HELD
15
JOSH HOLSTQB SORET
UNR—6632%-18—
14
JALEN MACONQB SEPORTAL · ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
UNR★3202%—EMERGED
13
LUKE MARBLEQB FRTRUE FR
★3★200%—FELL
12
KENNY LUETHQB JUNO SNAPS
★2★200%—HELD
▾RB28TAL25PERF28RET83ROTATIONn=5 · 9 METRICS · 22 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
GAVIN WILLIAMSRB SERET
★3★39544%-9HELD
1
ANTARIO BROWNRB SERET
★3—7922%+24—
45
TELLY JOHNSON JR.RB JUNO SNAPS
★3—7216%-5—
49
BROCK LAMPEFB SERET
UNR—6310%-3—
21
JAYLEN POERB JURET
UNR★3567%+23EMERGED
28
AHMIR SMITHRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—90%——
11
ROMELO WARERB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
31
GARRETT GENSLERRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
24
ELIJAH PORTERRB SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE36TAL38PERF35RET72ROTATIONn=8 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
82
TRISTEN TEWESTE SERET
UNR—8938%-22—
7
CAM THOMPSONWR SERET
UNR★38527%+19EMERGED
80
GRAYSON BARNESTE SERET
UNR★38433%+36EMERGED
9
TRAYVON RUDOLPHWR SERET
★3★37720%+14HELD
87
JAKE APPLEGETTE SEPORTAL · NEBRASKA
★3★37624%-32HELD
19
ANDREW MCELROYWR SEPORTAL · ST. THOMAS
UNR★37418%+6EMERGED
89
DANE PARDRIDGEWR SERET
★2★27116%-1HELD
9
GEORGE DIMOPOULOSWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—629%-57—
0
LA'DON BRYANTWR SONO SNAPS
★3—474%——
11
CHRIS CARTERTE SERET
★3—455%+46—
6
KEYSHAUN PIPKINWR JURET
★3★3382%—HELD
5
JUSTIN LYNCHWR SERET
★3—241%——
6
KYLE THOMASWR SORET
★3★2241%—FELL
83
JASON FOWLERTE SONO SNAPS
★3—40%——
3
RICKEY TAYLOR JR.WR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
4
KENJI LEWISWR SEPORTAL · ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
UNR★300%—EMERGED
12
CHRISTOPHER GOREWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
86
DEVON AKERSTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
85
JOE STEINTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
17
JAMARI MCIVORYWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
40
CHASE SCHUTTYTE FRTRUE FR
★2★200%—HELD
▸OL51TAL21PERF51RET94n=8 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL54TAL37PERF54RET88n=10 · 7 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸LB37TAL25PERF37RET62n=4 · 10 METRICS · 26 OBS
▸DB57TAL39PERF57RET85n=10 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
IVAN MOORE JR.HS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
BEN GUSTAFSONHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
ROSS LIEGELHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
AJ GUIDAHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ADRIAN THOMASHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TAYLOR POWELLHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
LANCE INGOLDHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
GEORGE DIMOPOULOSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
AHMIR SMITHHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
GREY RUMOHRHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAKE APPLEGETNEBRASKATE★3★3
JALEN MACONARKANSAS-PINE BLUFFQBUNR★3
CHRISTIAN FUHRMANSOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATELBUNR★3
MARC PRETTOFORDHAMLBUNR★3
ANDREW MCELROYST. THOMASWRUNR★3
KENJI LEWISARKANSAS-PINE BLUFFWRUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT25 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PETE NYGRALOUISVILLEOL★3★3
GEORGE GUMBS JR.FLORIDAEDGE★3★3
DEVIN LAFAYETTETROYS★3★3
CJ BROWNBOWLING GREENDB★3★3
BILLY DOZIERBUTLERWR★2★2
CHRISTIAN NASHSIOUX FALLSRB★2UNR
NOLAN POTTERELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
DARON GILBERTELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
JAMES ESTERELIGIBILITY UPDT★2—
TYLER JACKSONELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES20%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS28%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#99NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 24 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8199COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
619 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
34TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
7
6
6
9
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +1.8 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED15 OF 34
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST57% BACK57th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG57% BACK57th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR94%94th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR66%66th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST85%85th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE