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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG TEN|DAVID BRAUN|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
NORTHWESTERN87 FPIB1G · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
61FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
79%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
89%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#800 BC / 18
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs3.4-8.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-8.5
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE13
PERFORMANCE13
TALENT65
CONTINUITY79
DEFENSE70
PERFORMANCE70
TALENT70
CONTINUITY89
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
65MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HMIAMI (OH)—W 13-6204949-25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HDUKE—L 20-26506868-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HEASTERN ILLINOIS—W 31-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 21AWASHINGTON—L 5-24755757-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HINDIANA#10L 24-41599292-68BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AMARYLAND—W 37-10643636-12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HWISCONSIN—L 3-23815656-32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26AIOWA—L 14-40728989-65BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2APURDUE—W 26-20741010+14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HOHIO STATE#1L 7-3199100100-76BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AMICHIGAN—L 6-50898181-57BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HILLINOIS#16L 28-38557777-53BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB37TAL32PERF37RET81ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
JACK LAUSCHQB SORET
★3—8177%-43—
11
MIKE WRIGHT JR.QB SENO SNAPS
★3★35616%-35HELD
3
RYAN HILINSKIQB SERET
★4★3284%-35FELL
2
RYAN BOEQB SONO SNAPS
★3—263%——
9
AIDAN GRAYQB JURET
★3—00%——
15
SEAN WINTONQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB37TAL70PERF37RET100ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
CAM PORTERRB SERET
★3—8846%-27—
6
JOSEPH HIMON IIRB SERET
★3—8032%-3—
5
CALEB KOMOLAFERB JURET
★3—6919%-53—
31
JAKE ARTHURSRB SERET
UNR—282%-21—
26
ALBERT KUNICKIS IIIRB SORET
UNR—00%——
29
GRISSIM ANDERSONRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
24
DASHUN REEDERRB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE34TAL62PERF38RET86ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
A.J. HENNINGWR SERET
★4★39533%-9FELL
87
THOMAS GORDONTE SERET
★3—9251%-26—
17
BRYCE KIRTZWR SERET
★3—8625%+9—
88
MARSHALL LANGTE SERET
★3—7934%-3—
5
CALVIN JOHNSON IIWR SERET
★3★37517%-44HELD
8
HAYDEN ELIGON IIWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—6711%-55—
3
FRANK COVEY IVWR JURET
★3—6510%-46—
2
DUKE OLGESTE SERET
★3—5813%-41—
19
DREW WAGNERWR JUNO SNAPS
★2—433%——
12
DONNIE GRAYWR SERET
★3★3301%—HELD
86
LAWSON ALBRIGHTTE SERET
★3—242%——
84
HUNTER WELCINGTE SERET
★3★4141%—ROSE
10
RICKY AHUMARAEZEWR JURET
★3—110%——
19
REGGIE FLEURIMAWR SORET
★4★400%—HELD
81
CHRIS PETRUCCITE SERET
★3—00%——
18
CAMP MAGEETE JURET
★3—00%——
83
BLAKE VAN BURENTE SERET
UNR—00%——
85
PATRICK SCHALLERTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
87
CARSON GROVEWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
35
TATE CRANEWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
CAM RUSSELLWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL48TAL72PERF48RET73n=6 · 3 METRICS · 17 OBS
▸DL44TAL66PERF44RET99n=12 · 8 METRICS · 56 OBS
▸LB42TAL76PERF42RET99n=5 · 10 METRICS · 32 OBS
▸DB53TAL70PERF53RET74n=8 · 6 METRICS · 47 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PATRICK SCHALLERHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
IDRYS COTTONHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
DASHUN REEDERHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
TITO WILLIAMS JR.HS RECRUITS★3UNR
EZOMO ORATOKHAIHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
CALLEN CAMPBELLHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
TROY REGOVICHHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
TIMI OKEHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
TERRION CURRY-HICKSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
RYAN BOEHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
NIGEL GLOVEROHIO STATELB★4★3
MATT KEELERTEXAS TECHOTUNR★3
JACK BAILEYCOLORADOIOL★2★3
MIKE WRIGHTMISSISSIPPI STATEQBUNR★3
NOAH TAYLORCORNELLLBUNR★3
COOPER LOVELACEUSCIOLUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT19 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ROD HEARD IINOTRE DAMES★3★3
JOSH PRIEBEMICHIGANOL★3★3
GARNETT HOLLIS JR.WEST VIRGINIACB★3★3
JAHEEM JOSEPHWEST VIRGINIAS★3★3
BRENDAN SULLIVANIOWAQB★3★3
ANTHONY TYUS IIIOHIORB★3★3
JACOB GILLIOWAWR★3★3
MATT LAWSONNEW MEXICO STATEDL★3★3
BRYCE GALLAGHERELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
DOM D'ANTONIOELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES42%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS29%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#80NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8437COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
612 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST42% BACK42th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG42% BACK42th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR73%73th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR81%81th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST74%74th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE