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● LIVE|2024 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›OLD DOMINION›2024TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SUN BELT|RICKY RAHNE|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
OLD DOMINION75 FPISBC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
7FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
44%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
66%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-17IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1250 BC / 17
BC RATIO
2%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.0-6.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-6
AVG SCORING MARGIN0.0
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE56
PERFORMANCE56
TALENT39
CONTINUITY44
DEFENSE37
PERFORMANCE37
TALENT36
CONTINUITY66
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
48MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31ASOUTH CAROLINA#19L 19-23859090-61BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HEAST CAROLINA—L 14-20474545-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HVIRGINIA TECH—L 17-37637878-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28ABOWLING GREEN—W 30-27174343-14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5ACOASTAL CAROLINA—L 37-45342727+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AGEORGIA STATE—W 21-143488+21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HTEXAS STATE—W 24-14286565-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 24HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 47-19244444-15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2AAPP STATE—L 20-28392626+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HJAMES MADISON—L 32-35137070-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HMARSHALL—L 35-42425757-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AARKANSAS STATE—W 40-32382323+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB50TAL61PERF50RET26ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
COLTON JOSEPHQB JURET
★3★37566%-1HELD
2
GRANT WILSONQB SERET
UNR★36426%-26EMERGED
10
QUINN HENICLEQB SONO SNAPS
★3—419%-4—
9
EMMETT MOREHEADQB SEPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
★3★300%-26HELD
16
HOLDEN BROWNQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB51TAL63PERF51RET25ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
AARON YOUNGRB SENO SNAPS
★3—9357%-13—
25
BRYCE DUKERB SENO SNAPS
★3—6718%+12—
3
DEVIN ROCHERB JURET
★3—6415%+29—
1
TARIQ SIMSRB SERET
★3★35710%-59HELD
5
AARON YOUNGRB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%-3—
5
MAURKI JAMESRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
28
TROY MARQUEZRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE60TAL36PERF51RET46ONE OWNERn=5 · 8 METRICS · 32 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
ISIAH PAIGEWR SERET
★2—9532%-4—
15
PAT CONROYTE SEPORTAL · MERRIMACK
UNR★39396%+43EMERGED
0
DIANTE VINESWR SEPORTAL · IOWA
★3★38927%-6HELD
8
MYLES ALSTONWR JURET
★3★38826%-15HELD
13
DEMARIYON HOUSTONWR SENO SNAPS
★4★3555%-23FELL
13
KELBY WILLIAMSWR SERET
UNR★3504%+27EMERGED
1
NA'EEM ABDUL-RAHIM GLADDINGWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—453%——
15
TJ LOTTWR SERET
★3★3332%—HELD
4
DOMINIC DUTTONWR SERET
UNR—301%-7—
80
DJ CHANDLERTE JURET
UNR—294%——
23
KYLE MILLERWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
DALLAS SIMSWR FRPORTAL · MINNESOTA
★3★300%—HELD
9
JAILEN BUTLERTE SERET
UNR★300%-44EMERGED
87
TREY LANCASTERTE SERET
UNR—00%——
19
JAYLEN PRETLOWWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
18
FIDEL TAU PITTSWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
NATHAN HARTMANTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL36TAL37PERF36RET45n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL36TAL46PERF36RET88n=8 · 7 METRICS · 38 OBS
▸LB47TAL33PERF47RET86n=7 · 10 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸DB49TAL33PERF49RET39n=10 · 6 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KESHAWN MISTERHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
DAEVON ILESHS RECRUITS★3UNR
CHRIS FORBESHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
AHMAAD FOSTERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
QUINN HENICLEHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
TAYSEAN STEVENSONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JEROME CARTER IIIHS RECRUITS★3UNR
LORENZO MCFADDEN-PRESSLEYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
BRANDON CRUTCHFIELDHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JOSHUA SCHUETZMANNHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN13 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
AARON YOUNGRUTGERSRBUNR★3
BRYCE DUKEVIRGINIA TECHRBUNR★3
WILL JONES IISOUTH FLORIDAS★3★3
PAT CONROYMERRIMACKTEUNR★3
EMMETT MOREHEADBOSTON COLLEGEQB★3★3
PATRICK SMITH-YOUNGNORTH TEXASS★3★3
ANGELO RANKIN JR.RICHMONDCB★3★3
DIANTE VINESIOWAWR★3★3
COLIN HENRICHGEORGIA STATEIOL★3★3
ZACH BARLEVILLINOISIOL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
WAYNE MATTHEWS IIIMICHIGAN STATELB★3★4
TAHJ RA-ELMEMPHISDB★2UNR
CHRIS ADAMSMEMPHISOL★3★3
SHAWN ASBURY IIINDIANADB★3★3
LAMAREON JAMESTCUCB★3★3
TERRY JONES JR.INDIANADB★2★3
JALEN SATCHELLMICHIGAN STATEDL★3★3
REYMELLO MURPHYARIZONAWRUNR★3
DEVIN BRANDT-EPPSNEW MEXICODTUNRUNR
JAVON HARVEYDUKEWR★2★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES62%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS54%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#125NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8141COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1532 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
27TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
6
10
5
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-4 TO +8 W
IMPROVED9 OF 27
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST57% BACK57th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG57% BACK57th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR45%45th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR26%26th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST39%39th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE