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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SEC|LANE KIFFIN|—RECORD10-3|CONF—
OLE MISS#11 AP 8 FPISEC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
86FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
56%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
52%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#217 BC / 18
BC RATIO
34%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs11.0-1.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-2.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+23.6
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 11.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE99
PERFORMANCE99
TALENT83
CONTINUITY56
DEFENSE100
PERFORMANCE100
TALENT81
CONTINUITY52
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
64MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HFURMAN—W 76-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7HMIDDLE TENNESSEE—W 52-31922+97BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14AWAKE FOREST—W 40-6493030+69BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 52-13244444+55BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HKENTUCKY—L 17-20836666+33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5ASOUTH CAROLINA#19W 27-3859090+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12ALSU—L 26-29948989+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HOKLAHOMA—W 26-14957676+23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2AARKANSAS—W 63-31828383+16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HGEORGIA#6W 28-10999696+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AFLORIDA—L 17-24928686+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HMISSISSIPPI STATE—W 26-14763535+64BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 2HDUKE—W 52-20506868+31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB70TAL97PERF70RET93ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
JAXSON DARTQB SERET
★4—9593%+34—
13
AUSTIN SIMMONSQB SERET
★4★4407%+32HELD
14
WALKER HOWARDQB SERET
★4★340%—FELL
16
BRADEN WATERMANQB SORET
★3—00%——
14
AJ MADDOXQB SONO SNAPS
★4—00%——
16
JUSTIN KOWALAKQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB49TAL60PERF49RET40ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
HENRY PARRISH JR.RB SENO SNAPS
★4—8746%+15—
24
ULYSSES BENTLEY IVRB SERET
★3—7728%+12—
5
MATT JONESRB SERET
★3★35912%+34HELD
26
DOMONIQUE THOMASRB SEPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE
UNR★35710%+5EMERGED
30
RASHAD AMOSRB SEPORTAL · MIAMI (OH)
★3★3202%+3HELD
21
JASON ALBRITTONRB JURET
UNR—161%-19—
22
LOGAN DIGGSRB SEPORTAL · LSU
★3★4141%+2ROSE
37
AUSTIN ACTONRB SORET
UNR—00%——
26
ALI SCOTT JR.RB SERET
UNR—00%——
3
RAPH EKECHIRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE75TAL85PERF76RET61ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
19
CAYDEN LEEWR SERET
★3★49828%+28ROSE
3
ANTWANE WELLS JR.WR JUPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
UNR★49525%+21EMERGED
11
JORDAN WATKINSWR SERET
★3—9324%+21—
8
DAE'QUAN WRIGHTTE SEPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
★3★49052%+34ROSE
86
CADEN PRIESKORNTE SERET
UNR★48645%+53EMERGED
9
TRE HARRISWR SERET
★3★47614%+36ROSE
6
MICAH DAVISWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★3534%+34EMERGED
11
AYDEN WILLIAMSWR SERET
★4★3473%-21FELL
87
WYATT SMALLEYTE JURET
UNR—272%——
20
JOSHUA AKAWR SERET
UNR—261%——
9
JORDAN SMARTWR SEPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
UNR★3231%+28EMERGED
23
DREW BURNETTWR SORET
UNR—200%——
46
SALATHIEL HEMPHILLTE SERET
UNR—151%——
4
NOREEL WHITEWR JUNO SNAPS
★4—150%——
89
DYLAN DAVISWR JURET
★3—00%——
12
IZAIAH HARTRUPWR SEPORTAL · SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
85
DILLON HIPPTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
88
DEVIN PRICEWR SEPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
★3★300%+30HELD
87
HUDSON WOLFETE JURET
★4—00%——
83
JARNORRIS HOPSONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
31
CALVIN WILSONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
82
JOSHUA PFEIFERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
86
MAC OWENWR JURET
UNR—00%——
39
CIARAN PEDULLAWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
42
JACK HARPERTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
80
ZAMARI BRUCEWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL56TAL83PERF57RET47n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL90TAL94PERF90RET57n=10 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
▸LB76TAL92PERF76RET74n=5 · 11 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸DB69TAL67PERF69RET52n=9 · 6 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS9 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KAM FRANKLINHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
WILL ECHOLESHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
KAMRON BEAVERSHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
JEFFERY RUSHHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
TJ BANKSHS RECRUITS★4UNR
AJ MADDOXHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
NOREEL WHITEHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
ANTHONY ROBINSON IIIHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JOHN WAYNE OLIVERHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN16 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
WALTER NOLENTEXAS A&MDL★5★5
PRINCELY UMANMIELENFLORIDAEDGE★4★4
ANTWANE WELLS JR.SOUTH CAROLINAWRUNR★4
CHRIS PAUL JR.ARKANSASLB★3★4
TREY AMOSALABAMACB★3★4
DECAMERION RICHARDSONMISSISSIPPI STATECB★3★4
YAM BANKSSOUTH ALABAMAS★3★4
LOGAN DIGGSLSURB★3★4
DAE'QUAN WRIGHTVIRGINIA TECHTE★3★4
NATE KALEPOWASHINGTONIOL★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT38 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
QUINSHON JUDKINSOHIO STATERB★3★4
LADARIUS TENNISONUCFDB★4★3
DEMARKO WILLIAMSWESTERN KENTUCKYDB★3★3
JOSHUA HARRISNORTH CAROLINADL★4★3
KYIRIN HEATHSOUTHERN MISSTE★3★3
ZAKHARI FRANKLINILLINOISWR★2★3
MICHAEL TRIGGBAYLORTE★4★3
REGINALD HUGHESJACKSONVILLE STATELBUNR★3
CEDRIC MELTONHOUSTONOL★3★3
BRALON BROWNMARSHALLWR★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES58%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS37%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#21NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
7OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8929COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2524 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST64% BACK64th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG64% BACK64th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR47%47th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR93%93th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST52%52th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE