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HOME›TEAMS›SOUTHERN MISS›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
SUN BELT|WILL HALL|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
SOUTHERN MISS119 FPISBC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
23FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
78%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
64%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+2IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#810 BC / 20
BC RATIO
2%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
3-9ACTUALvs3.2-8.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-12.6
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE30
PERFORMANCE30
TALENT34
CONTINUITY78
DEFENSE8
PERFORMANCE8
TALENT49
CONTINUITY64
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
52MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HALCORN STATE—W 40-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9AFLORIDA STATE#6L 13-66869494-81BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HTULANE—L 3-21415656-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23AARKANSAS STATE—L 37-44343737-24BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HTEXAS STATE—L 36-50324747-34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HOLD DOMINION—L 13-17122323-10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 17ASOUTH ALABAMA—L 3-55426464-51BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28AAPP STATE—L 38-48396161-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HUL MONROE—W 24-71022+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9ALOUISIANA—W 34-31315353-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AMISSISSIPPI STATE#9L 20-41805454-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HTROY—L 17-35278181-68BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB57TAL23PERF57RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
BILLY WILESQB SEPORTAL · CLEMSON
★3★38382%-27HELD
6
ETHAN CRAWFORDQB SENO SNAPS
★3★34712%-31HELD
19
HOLMAN EDWARDSQB SEPORTAL · HOUSTON
UNR—336%——
24
JAKE LANGEQB JURET
UNR—00%-22—
1
ZACH WILCKEQB JURET
★3—00%-23—
18
AUSTIN GONZALEZQB FRTRUE FR
★2★200%—HELD
17
KYLE MCCORMICKQB JURET
★2—00%——
▾RB62TAL51PERF62RET84ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
FRANK GORE JR.RB JURET
★3—9657%+9—
0
RODRIGUES CLARKRB SEPORTAL · MEMPHIS
★3★36918%+5HELD
2
CHANDLER PITTMANRB SERET
★3—6717%+6—
11
ANTAVIOUS WILLISRB JURET
★3—483%-47—
5
KENYON CLAYRB SERET
★3★3517%-13HELD
20
JQ GRAYRB FRTRUE FR
★3—90%——
25
ZAHN DIAZRB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE52TAL39PERF52RET82ONE OWNERn=5 · 7 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
JAKARIUS CASTONWR SERET
UNR—9342%+26—
6
LATREAL JONESWR SERET
UNR—8837%+1—
33
COLE CAVALLOTE SERET
UNR—8759%-19—
85
JUSTYN REIDTE SENO SNAPS
★3★36424%—HELD
4
TYQUAN HENDERSONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★35710%-33EMERGED
42
AVERY WHITETE JURET
★3—5313%——
4
BRANDON HAYESWR SERET
★3—486%-48—
11
DAVIS DALTONWR SERET
★3—455%——
87
EVAN MCNALLYTE FRRET
UNR—313%——
6
JAVIEON BUTLERWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3221%—HELD
85
JORDYN MAHAFFEYTE JURET
UNR—161%——
47
MICHAEL JEFCOATTE JURET
UNR—81%——
80
ZAVIAN HALESWR SERET
UNR—60%——
0
TY MIMSWR SERET
★3★300%-21HELD
16
EXAVIOUS REEDTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
84
JACK JACKSONWR SORET
UNR—00%——
88
MATT NIXONWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
12
CHANDLER MERRILLWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
56
MITCHELL BUTLERTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
47
PAX HUGHESTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
37
JACK SCHWINGWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
LADARIUS MOOREWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL42TAL32PERF42RET86n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL46TAL49PERF46RET82n=8 · 7 METRICS · 46 OBS
▸LB46TAL31PERF46RET67n=7 · 11 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸DB40TAL55PERF40RET55n=11 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAVIEON BUTLERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ELIJAH DOUGLASHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
TANNER WELCHHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
ETHAN CRAWFORDHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
TRE'MON HENRYHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
SENTARIO WILLISHS RECRUITS★3UNR
WILDREKUS JOHNSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JUSTYN REIDHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
EXAVIOUS REEDHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
LUKE ROGERSHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MJ DANIELSOLE MISSS★4★4
KOLBE CAGEARIZONALB★3★3
DYLAN LAWRENCEMISSISSIPPI STATES★3★3
GABE CAVAZOSMISSISSIPPI STATEOTUNR★3
RODRIGUES CLARKMEMPHISRB★3★3
ERIC THOMASARKANSASEDGEUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT35 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TREY LOWELIBERTYQB★3UNR
DAJON RICHARDGRAMBLINGRB★3UNR
TYKEEM DOSSELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
DAYLEN GILLELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
NATRONE BROOKSELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
SANTRELL LATHAMELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
ERIC SCOTT JR.ELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
CAMRON HARRELLELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
TYLAN KNIGHTELIGIBILITY UPS★2—
JASON BROWNLEEELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES26%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS36%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#81NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8270COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
86 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
27TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
6
10
5
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-4 TO +8 W
IMPROVED9 OF 27
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST63% BACK63th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG63% BACK63th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR86%86th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST55%55th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE