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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SUN BELT|GERAD PARKER|—RECORD8-6|CONF—
TROY93 FPISBC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
28FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
67%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
59%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#820 BC / 14
BC RATIO
7%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
8-5ACTUALvs6.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN-0.2
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE12
PERFORMANCE12
TALENT58
CONTINUITY67
DEFENSE48
PERFORMANCE48
TALENT40
CONTINUITY59
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
39MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HNICHOLLS—W 38-20————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6ACLEMSON—L 16-27967676-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HMEMPHIS—L 7-28587272-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20ABUFFALO—W 21-17193030+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HSOUTH ALABAMA—W 31-24261616+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11ATEXAS STATE—W 48-41455353-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18AUL MONROE—W 37-141044+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HLOUISIANA—W 35-23342323+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HARKANSAS STATE—L 10-23372626+10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 13AOLD DOMINION—L 0-33126464-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HGEORGIA STATE—W 31-194522+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ASOUTHERN MISS—W 28-18403131+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 5AJAMES MADISON#19L 14-3188181-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 16AJACKSONVILLE STATE—L 13-17203333+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB25TAL50PERF25RET97ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
TUCKER KILCREASEQB SERET
★3—7953%-9—
9
GOOSE CROWDERQB SERET
★3—7644%+8—
15
UI ALEQB JUPORTAL · HOUSTON
UNR—313%+14—
6
JACK JAMESQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB20TAL66PERF20RET98ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
TAE MEADOWSRB SERET
★3★39353%-26HELD
1
JORDAN LOVETTRB SERET
★3—8437%-31—
4
JARRIS WILLIAMSRB SERET
★3—538%-37—
25
DENNIS PALMERRB JUPORTAL · BETHUNE-COOKMAN
UNR★3272%-46EMERGED
22
TREY COOLEYRB SENO SNAPS
★4★300%+11FELL
21
AC WALTERSRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
26
DEWHITT BETTERSON JR.RB SERET
UNR—00%——
20
DAKARAI SHANKSRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE46TAL51PERF46RET80ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
DJ EPPSWR SERET
UNR★39526%-9EMERGED
14
ETHAN CONNERTE SERET
UNR—9443%+12—
7
RARA THOMASWR SENO SNAPS
★4★38922%+17FELL
82
ROMAN MOTHERSHEDWR JURET
UNR★38318%-30EMERGED
88
JACKSON WORLEYTE SERET
★3—8125%-23—
89
TRAE SWARTZTE SERET
UNR—8024%-37—
2
PEYTON HIGGINSWR SERET
★3—8016%-2—
8
TRAY TAYLORWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★37513%+33EMERGED
5
MOJO DORTCHWR SERET
★4★4595%-44HELD
85
FABIAN ROGOSCHTE SERET
UNR—578%——
13
KY MCNULTYWR JURET
★3—110%——
7
KRISTIAN TATEWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
80
JT TANGTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
JACKSON THOMASWR SORET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
84
MARQUIS HARRISTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
12
JYWON BOYDWR JURET
★3—00%——
42
CHAD BARHAMTE FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
81
JAH'MARREN JACKSONWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
17
DARIYONNE BRYANTWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL30TAL63PERF30RET55n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL57TAL49PERF57RET63n=9 · 7 METRICS · 51 OBS
▸LB61TAL24PERF61RET100n=6 · 11 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸DB48TAL39PERF48RET42n=8 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MAKEL GREENHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
RJ SHAMBERGERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JAH'MARREN JACKSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JT ALVISHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JACK JAMESHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
LADARIUS JEMESHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
GAVIN BOWLINHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
UCHENYO OJATAHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
AC WALTERSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
ANTONIOUS STEELEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN4 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MALIK ELLISMISSISSIPPI STATETE★3★3
DENNIS PALMERBETHUNE-COOKMANRBUNR★3
AMARE GARRETTTOLEDOCBUNRUNR
UI ALEHOUSTONQBUNRUNR
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT27 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BOAZ STANLEYSOUTH CAROLINAOLUNR★3
DANIEL KINGNORTH CAROLINAOL★2★4
LJ GREENTULANECB★3★3
IAN CONERLY-GOODLYSE LOUISIANADBUNRUNR
PHILLIP LEEARKANSASDL★3★3
BRODY DALTONALABAMATE★3★3
CECIL POWELLSAM HOUSTONDB★3★3
DAMIEN TAYLOROLE MISSRB★3★3
MATTHEW CALDWELLTEXASQBUNR★3
CHEICK KABACHARLOTTEDLUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES80%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS69%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#82NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8472COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
412 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST41% BACK41th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG41% BACK41th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR55%55th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR97%97th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST42%42th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE