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HOME›TEAMS›VANDERBILT›2022TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
SEC|CLARK LEA|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
VANDERBILT96 FPISEC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
59FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
11%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#323 BC / 27
BC RATIO
9%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-11.4
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE49
PERFORMANCE49
TALENT56
CONTINUITY11
DEFENSE32
PERFORMANCE32
TALENT58
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
70MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 27AHAWAI'I—W 63-102622+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
1SEP 3HELON—W 42-31————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 10HWAKE FOREST—L 25-45526868-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17ANORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 38-282166+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24AALABAMA#5L 3-551009898-63BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8HOLE MISS—L 28-52849090-55BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15AGEORGIA#1L 0-5599100100-65BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22AMISSOURI—L 14-17786767-32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5HSOUTH CAROLINA#23L 27-38868080-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12AKENTUCKY—W 24-21818282-47BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19HFLORIDA—W 31-24927575-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26HTENNESSEE#6L 0-56879797-62BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB55TAL40PERF55RET44ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
17
AJ SWANNQB JUNO SNAPS
★4★37056%-18FELL
11
MIKE WRIGHT JR.QB SERET
★3★36744%-33HELD
9
KEN SEALSQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
7
DREW DICKEYQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
7
WALTER TAYLORQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
18
HAYDEN MOSESQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB47TAL73PERF47RET90ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
RAY DAVISRB SERET
★4—9771%-5—
4
PATRICK SMITHRB JURET
★3★36418%-44HELD
13
CHASE GILLESPIERB SENO SNAPS
★3★3498%-20HELD
24
ROCKO GRIFFINRB JURET
★3★3252%-22HELD
39
COOPER LUTZRB SENO SNAPS
★3—222%-7—
2
RAY DAVISRB SENO SNAPS
★4—00%+18—
25
DYLAN BETTS-PAULEYRB JURET
★3—00%——
20
MAURICE EDWARDS IVRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
47
ISAIAH FONTANRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
43
DOMINIC REZACRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE55TAL70PERF59RET75ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
86
BEN BRESNAHANTE SERET
★3—9346%-13—
14
WILL SHEPPARDWR SERET
★3★49140%+25ROSE
10
GAVIN SCHOENWALDTE SERET
★3—8634%+49—
15
JAYDEN MCGOWANWR SENO SNAPS
★3★38028%+12HELD
84
JUSTIN BALLTE SERET
★3★36717%-28HELD
3
QUINCY SKINNER JR.WR SERET
★3—6716%+30—
17
GAMARION CARTERWR SERET
★3★3559%+3HELD
2
DEVIN BODDIE JR.WR SERET
★3★3527%-26HELD
85
JOEL DECOURSEYTE SERET
★3★3272%—HELD
18
LOGAN KYLETE SERET
★3★3211%—HELD
16
COLE SPENCETE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
6
DAVEON WALKERWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
88
EZRA MCALLISTERWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
80
WILSON LONGWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
81
HUTCH BAIRDWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
5
RICHIE HOSKINSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
LANDON WELLSWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL57TAL46PERF57RET12n=9 · 3 METRICS · 25 OBS
▸DL40TAL62PERF40RET72n=7 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
▸LB41TAL72PERF41RET71n=5 · 11 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸DB52TAL49PERF52RET66n=8 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS25 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DANIEL MARTINHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
JADAIS RICHARDHS RECRUITS★4UNR
AJ SWANNHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
DARREN AGUHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
LANGSTON PATTERSONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
LEYTON NELSONHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
TRUDELL BERRYHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
QUANTAVES GASKINSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
BRADLEY MANNHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JAMESON WHARTONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT21 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRENDON HARRISWAKE FORESTS★4★3
DASHAUN JERKINSOLE MISSS★3★3
CAM JOHNSONARIZONA STATEWR★4★3
RAASHAAN WILKINS JR.ILLINOISDLUNRUNR
AMIR ABDUR-RAHMANBALL STATEWR★3UNR
TERION SUGICKARKANSAS STATEDL★3★3
MICHAEL MINCEYKENNESAW STATELB★3UNR
MARCUS BRADLEYMASSACHUSETTSDE★4★4
LORENZA SURGERSMINNESOTADL★2★2
GABE JEUDY-LALLYBYUDB★3★4
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#32NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
3OF 27 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8685COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST83% BACK83th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG83% BACK83th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR12%12th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR44%44th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST66%66th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE