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● LIVE|2023 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›BAYLOR›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG 12|DAVE ARANDA|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
BAYLOR84 FPIB12 · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
67FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
41%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
69%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#352 BC / 21
BC RATIO
12%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-10.3
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE45
PERFORMANCE45
TALENT70
CONTINUITY41
DEFENSE17
PERFORMANCE17
TALENT64
CONTINUITY69
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
65MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HTEXAS STATE—L 31-42324747-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HUTAH—L 13-20777777-50BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HLONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY—W 30-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 23HTEXAS#3L 6-38969696-69BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30AUCF—W 36-35625858-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HTEXAS TECH—L 14-39726868-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21ACINCINNATI—W 32-29643434-7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HIOWA STATE—L 18-30577272-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HHOUSTON—L 24-25652929-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AKANSAS STATE#18L 25-59519090-63BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18ATCU—L 17-42877474-47BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HWEST VIRGINIA—L 31-34647272-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB46TAL81PERF46RET68ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
BLAKE SHAPENQB SERET
★3★38368%+20HELD
13
SAWYER ROBERTSONQB SEPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
★4★36527%-16FELL
4
RJ MARTINEZQB JUPORTAL · NORTHERN ARIZONA
UNR★2365%—EMERGED
18
BRAYSON MCHENRYQB JURET
UNR—00%——
17
CADE TESSIERQB SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▾RB57TAL35PERF58RET24ROTATIONn=3 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
DOMINIC RICHARDSONRB SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
★3★38739%+7HELD
35
DAWSON PENDERGRASSRB SENO SNAPS
★3—8435%+34—
29
RICHARD REESERB SERET
★3★37324%+16HELD
23
JORDAN JENKINSRB SORET
★3—3817%——
30
BRYSON WASHINGTONRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★4302%+38ROSE
25
JACOBY CLARKERB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE62TAL66PERF55RET69ROTATIONn=10 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
DRAKE DABNEYTE SERET
★3★39342%+39HELD
11
KETRON JACKSON JR.WR SENO SNAPS
UNR—8623%+27—
34
JOSH CAMERONWR SERET
UNR—8523%-5—
80
MONARAY BALDWINWR SERET
★3—8321%+31—
87
JAKE ROBERTSTE SEPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
★3★37825%+47HELD
87
LAKELSEY JOHNSON JR.TE SERET
★3★37121%-23HELD
16
HAL PRESLEYWR SERET
★4★36712%-30FELL
6
JONAH BURTONWR SERET
UNR★3577%-19EMERGED
CAMERON BONNERWR SERET
★3★3566%-57HELD
9
ARMANI WINFIELDWR SERET
★4★4546%-17HELD
85
MATTHEW KLOPFENSTEINTE SENO SNAPS
★3—506%——
43
GAVIN YATESTE SERET
UNR—475%——
5
JORDAN NABORSWR SERET
★3★3352%—HELD
7
JAVON GIPSONWR SERET
★3★3130%—HELD
86
HAWKINS POLLEYTE SENO SNAPS
★3—110%——
81
JONATHAN DAVIDSONWR JURET
UNR—60%——
82
CODY MLADENKATE JURET
★3—00%——
44
MARK PATTONTE JURET
UNR—00%——
24
LANDRY KINNEWR JURET
★2—00%——
49
JONATHAN STEINHAUERTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL58TAL74PERF58RET22n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL55TAL61PERF55RET70n=8 · 8 METRICS · 41 OBS
▸LB43TAL63PERF43RET85n=7 · 11 METRICS · 35 OBS
▸DB46TAL66PERF46RET59n=9 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ISAIAH ROBINSONHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
LEVAR THORNTON JR.HS RECRUITCB★4UNR
TAY'SHAWN WILSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
MATTHEW KLOPFENSTEINHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
COREY KELLYHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
MICAH GIFFORDHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
CARL WILLIAMS IVHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
TREY WILSONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
SEAN THOMPKINSHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
BRYSON WASHINGTONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CLARK BARRINGTONBYUIOL★2★4
DOMINIC RICHARDSONOKLAHOMA STATERB★3★4
KETRON JACKSONARKANSASWRUNR★4
SAWYER ROBERTSONMISSISSIPPI STATEQB★4★3
CAMPBELL BARRINGTONBYUOT★3★3
JAKE ROBERTSNORTH TEXASTE★3★3
MIKE SMITHLIBERTYLBUNR★3
BYRON VAUGHNSUTAH STATELB★3★3
AJANI CARTERUTAH STATECB★3★3
TREVEN MA'AEOREGONEDGE★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MICAH MAZZCCUAFLORIDAOL★3★3
ALFAHIYM WALCOTTARKANSASDBUNR★4
LORANDO JOHNSONARKANSASCB★4★3
DEVIN NEALLOUISVILLES★3★3
MIKE HARRISSOUTH ALABAMAS★3★3
VICTOR OBITEXAS STATEDE★2UNR
KYRON DRONESVIRGINIA TECHQB★4★3
GRIFFIN SPEAKSAUBURNSUNRUNR
JOSHUA FLEEKSNEBRASKAWR★4UNR
JAYLEN ELLISCOLORADOWR★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES44%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS57%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#35NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8755COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1312 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST69% BACK69th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG69% BACK69th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR22%22th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR68%68th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST59%59th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE