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● LIVE|2024 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG 12|DAVE ARANDA|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
BAYLOR33 FPIB12 · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
69FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
73%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
66%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#671 BC / 13
BC RATIO
14%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs8.2-3.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+9.4
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE69
PERFORMANCE69
TALENT72
CONTINUITY73
DEFENSE59
PERFORMANCE59
TALENT68
CONTINUITY66
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
61MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HTARLETON STATE—W 45-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7AUTAH—L 12-23777171+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HAIR FORCE—W 31-311717+55BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ACOLORADO#25L 31-38787171+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HBYU#13L 28-34448888-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5AIOWA STATE#15L 21-43518080-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19ATEXAS TECH—W 59-35736060+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HOKLAHOMA STATE—W 38-28624040+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HTCU—W 37-34808282-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AWEST VIRGINIA—W 49-35615252+20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AHOUSTON—W 20-10532424+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HKANSAS—W 45-17656262+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 31ALSU—L 31-44948989-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB70TAL86PERF70RET89ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
SAWYER ROBERTSONQB SERET
★4★38789%+20FELL
1
DEQUAN FINNQB SEPORTAL · TOLEDO
★3★35011%+19HELD
12
NATE BENNETTQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—40%——
18
BRAYSON MCHENRYQB JURET
UNR—00%——
17
CADE TESSIERQB SERET
★2—00%——
▾RB64TAL72PERF64RET99ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
30
BRYSON WASHINGTONRB JURET
★3★49246%+25ROSE
35
DAWSON PENDERGRASSRB SERET
★3—8533%+28—
29
RICHARD REESERB SERET
★3★36614%0HELD
21
DOMINIC RICHARDSONRB SERET
★3★3506%+7HELD
29
JOSEPH HAGMANRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—121%——
27
JOSEPH DODDSRB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE76TAL70PERF72RET71ROTATIONn=7 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
34
JOSH CAMERONWR SERET
UNR—9327%+21—
16
HAL PRESLEYWR SERET
★4★38420%-19FELL
6
ASHTYN HAWKINSWR SEPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
UNR★38420%+26EMERGED
1
MICHAEL TRIGGTE SEPORTAL · OLE MISS
★4★37943%+29FELL
80
MONARAY BALDWINWR SERET
★3—7917%+30—
43
GAVIN YATESTE SERET
UNR—7435%-16—
11
KETRON JACKSON JR.WR SERET
UNR—7113%+31—
85
MATTHEW KLOPFENSTEINTE SERET
★3—5413%-3—
87
LAKELSEY JOHNSON JR.TE SERET
★3★3437%-23HELD
3
JADON PORTERWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—301%——
86
HAWKINS POLLEYTE SERET
★3—222%——
20
JAMAAL BELLWR SEPORTAL · NEVADA
★3★3201%-28HELD
82
CODY MLADENKATE JURET
★3—111%——
6
JONAH BURTONWR SERET
UNR★3110%-19EMERGED
CAMERON BONNERWR SERET
★3★300%-57HELD
81
SETH WELLERWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
80
JACKSON BAIRDWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
DANIEL EDENIWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL77TAL71PERF77RET67n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL61TAL66PERF61RET55n=8 · 7 METRICS · 37 OBS
▸LB55TAL69PERF55RET55n=6 · 11 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸DB46TAL68PERF46RET79n=14 · 8 METRICS · 66 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ALEX FOSTERHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
JOSH LAIRHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JOSEPH DODDSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JADON PORTERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KRIS WOKOMAHHS RECRUITS★3UNR
BROCK JACKSONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
KYLAND REEDHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
MASON DOSSETTHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
TRISTAN SANTOROHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
KYLER BEATYHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN13 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEQUAN FINNTOLEDOQB★3★4
OMAR AIGBEDIONMONTANA STATEIOL★3★3
KENDRICK SIMPKINSWESTERN KENTUCKYS★3★3
MICHAEL TRIGGOLE MISSTE★4★3
COLTON THOMASSONTEXAS A&MOT★4★3
STEVE LINTONTEXAS TECHEDGE★3★3
ASHTYN HAWKINSTEXAS STATEWRUNR★3
JAQUES EVANSWESTERN KENTUCKYEDGE★3★3
KURT DANNEKEROHIOIOL★2★3
LORANDO JOHNSONARKANSASCB★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT23 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DRAKE DABNEYTCUTE★3★3
BLAKE SHAPENMISSISSIPPI STATEQB★3★3
JAKE ROBERTSOKLAHOMATE★3★3
ARMANI WINFIELDCOLORADO STATEWR★4★4
ALFONZO ALLEN JR.FLORIDAS★3UNR
ELIJAH ELLISMARSHALLOL★3★3
RJ MARTINEZTEXAS STATEQBUNR★2
JORDAN NABORSSTEPHEN F. AUSTINWR★3★3
GEORGE MAILEUTAH STATEOL★4★3
GABE HALLELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES20%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS34%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#67NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 13 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8657COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1615 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST60% BACK60th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG60% BACK60th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR67%67th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR89%89th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST79%79th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE