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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|PETE LEMBO|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
BUFFALO108 FPIMAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
9FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
71%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
73%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1100 BC / 22
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+1.1
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE16
PERFORMANCE16
TALENT30
CONTINUITY71
DEFENSE26
PERFORMANCE26
TALENT27
CONTINUITY73
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
31MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HLAFAYETTE—W 30-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7AMISSOURI#22L 0-38878686-51BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HMASSACHUSETTS—W 34-34144+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ANORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 23-20103838-3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28AUCONN—L 3-47275050-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HTOLEDO—W 30-15374141-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HWESTERN MICHIGAN—L 41-48312222+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26AOHIO—L 16-47115353-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2AAKRON—W 41-302688+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 12HBALL STATE—W 51-481466+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 20AEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 37-20211515+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 26HKENT STATE—W 43-7900+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 4ALIBERTY—W 26-7374747-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB28TAL28PERF28RET97ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
CJ OGBONNAQB SERET
UNR★38697%-17EMERGED
9
GUNNAR GRAYQB SERET
★3—233%——
3
JACK SHIELDSQB SEPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
★3★200%+8FELL
15
MASON CUMBIEQB SERET
★2—00%——
18
ANTHONY POLICAREQB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾RB35TAL35PERF35RET85ONE OWNERn=5 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
AL-JAY HENDERSONRB SERET
★3—9657%+6—
23
JACQEZ BARKSDALERB SERET
UNR—7017%-19—
32
LAMAR SPERLINGRB JURET
★3★36011%-30HELD
4
MESSIAH BURCHRB SERET
★3—5911%+29—
25
TERRANCE SHELTON JR.RB JUNO SNAPS
★3—414%-30—
24
JAMES MCNEIL JR.RB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—50%——
27
GABE GOINSRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE22TAL32PERF32RET51ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 35 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
81
JAKE ORLANDOTE SERET
★3—9069%-21—
0
VICTOR SNOWWR SERET
UNR★38525%+28EMERGED
2
JJ JENKINSWR SEPORTAL · COLUMBIA
UNR★38425%+20EMERGED
11
TAJI JOHNSONWR SEPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
★3★38223%-40HELD
14
EVAN KINGTE SEPORTAL · HAMPTON
UNR—6021%——
6
CHANCE MORROWWR SERET
★3★3597%-16HELD
19
JAVIEN CUFFWR SERET
★3★2597%0FELL
83
TADD BARRWR SERET
UNR—514%——
5
NIK MCMILLANWR SERET
★3★3504%+21HELD
88
RYAN DALYTE JURET
UNR—396%——
1
QUA SANDERSWR SERET
UNR—382%——
42
MITCH VIVIANOTE SORET
★3★3324%—HELD
87
JEREMY YANCEYWR JURET
UNR—271%——
86
AIDAN WALLINEWR JURET
UNR—00%——
10
MARK-ANTHONY SCOTT JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
21
PATRICK CLACKS IIIWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
17
SHAMAR RISER-PRESSLEYTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
34
BODHI OGGWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
17
JEREMIAH WATKINSWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
20
BOBBY MAYSWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
TYRELL SIMMONS JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
28
SHEY WILLIAMSWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
29
MARCEL PICARDWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
38
EVAN DEANWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
82
TERRELL RICHARDSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
NICK LEONARDTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL34TAL27PERF34RET79n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL36TAL18PERF36RET37n=9 · 7 METRICS · 47 OBS
▸LB49TAL34PERF49RET94n=4 · 11 METRICS · 32 OBS
▸DB37TAL30PERF37RET88n=8 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SHAMAR RISER-PRESSLEYHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
PATRICK CLACKS IIIHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KOBI BLACKWELLHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
TERRANCE SHELTON JR.HS RECRUITRB★3UNR
RONNELL DAVISHS RECRUITS★3UNR
WILL CLARKHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JOHN KEOUGHHS RECRUITS★3UNR
XAVIER LEONARDHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
PAUL CLARKHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
LUKE YAU GAYLEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GABRIEL ARENAVIRGINIA TECHIOL★3★3
EDDIE PLEASANT IIIMICHIGAN STATECB★3★3
SAVEON BROWNWESTERN MICHIGANS★3★3
OLIVER BRIDGESCINCINNATICB★3★3
KOBE STEWARTSAMFORDEDGE★3★3
TAJI JOHNSONBOSTON COLLEGEWR★3★3
TRISTAN SOUZAWASHINGTON STATEDL★2★3
JJ JENKINSCOLUMBIAWRUNR★3
JACK SHIELDSOLD DOMINIONQB★3★3
ANTONIO COLCLOUGHMONMOUTHEDGE★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT30 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEVIN GRANTSYRACUSEDB★3★3
COLE SNYDEREASTERN MICHIGANQB★3★3
MARLYN JOHNSONFLORIDA ATLANTICWR★3★3
CAM BALLMISSISSIPPI STATETE★3★3
MIKE WASHINGTON JR.NEW MEXICO STATERB★2★2
KAM OLDSKENT STATELB★3UNR
GABE WALLACEELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
ISAIAH WRIGHTELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
JOE ANDREESSENELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
JAYLON BASSELIGIBILITY UPDTUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES72%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS86%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#110NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8200COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1717 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST17% BACK17th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG17% BACK17th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR79%79th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR97%97th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST88%88th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE