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HOME›TEAMS›CENTRAL MICHIGAN›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|JIM MCELWAIN|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
CENTRAL MICHIGAN114 FPIMAC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
9FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
60%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
90%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-9IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#910 BC / 22
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-7.9
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE29
PERFORMANCE29
TALENT30
CONTINUITY60
DEFENSE1
PERFORMANCE1
TALENT35
CONTINUITY90
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
35MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1AMICHIGAN STATE—L 7-31813434-29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HNEW HAMPSHIRE—W 45-42————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16ANOTRE DAME#14L 17-41939595-90BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23ASOUTH ALABAMA—W 34-30426464-59BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 26-23161818-13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7ABUFFALO—L 13-3781111-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HAKRON—W 17-102622+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21ABALL STATE—L 17-24201111-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10OCT 31HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 37-31133030-25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 7AWESTERN MICHIGAN—L 28-381999-4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AOHIO—L 20-34124747-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24HTOLEDO—L 17-32376161-56BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB56TAL30PERF56RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
JASE BAUERQB SERET
★3★381100%-25HELD
3
TYLER JEFFERSONQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
9
ETHAN LANEQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
12
TYLER PAPEQB SORET
★3—00%——
▾RB54TAL25PERF54RET94ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
MARION LUKESRB SERET
★3—9152%+36—
26
MYLES BAILEYRB SERET
★3—8136%-2—
28
B.J. HARRISRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—456%-50—
27
SAM HICKSRB JURET
UNR—425%+37—
26
JAKE TAFELSKIRB SERET
UNR—171%——
5
NAHREE BIGGINSRB SERET
★3—00%——
36
CHRISTIAN BROWNRB SORET
UNR—00%——
39
TYLER DEWITTRB SORET
UNR—00%——
4
JAKIVION CALIPRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
24
MEKHI JENKINSRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
46
GERMANUEL TANELUSRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE31TAL27PERF36RET73ONE OWNERn=10 · 7 METRICS · 45 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
82
MITCHEL COLLIERTE SORET
★2—8845%+14—
13
CHRIS PARKERWR SERET
★3★38626%+2HELD
17
JESSE PREWITT IIIWR SERET
UNR—8224%+11—
8
DECORION TEMPLETE SERET
★3★37429%-27HELD
22
TYSON DAVISWR SERET
★3★37418%+27HELD
86
MARCUS YOUNGTE SORET
UNR—6923%——
10
STEPHAN BRACEY JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
★3—619%-54—
81
THOMAS PANNUNZIOWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—588%-35—
84
KENNY BREWER IIIWR SERET
UNR—505%-53—
15
JALEN MCGAUGHYWR SERET
★3★3494%+19HELD
87
JACOB KAMINSKITE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—363%——
20
LANGSTON LEWISWR SERET
★2★3362%-11ROSE
7
JAVORIAN WIMBERLYWR FRTRUE FR
★3—332%——
83
SHATAVIOUS HOGANWR FRTRUE FR
★3—281%——
8
EVAN BOYDWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3100%—HELD
13
JORDYN WILLIAMSWR SERET
★3—60%——
5
BERT EMANUEL JR.WR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
16
KYREN WAREWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
15
IRONE JACKSONWR SORET
★3—00%-63—
89
JAVON GANTTWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
34
ALEC PALELLATE JURET
★3—00%——
80
MATTEO CARRIEREWR FRRET
★3—00%——
11
BAILEY SMITHTE JURET
★2—00%——
48
NATHAN VANTIMMERENTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
35
JESIAH STEVENS-SILVATE FRTRUE FR
★2★200%—HELD
47
TROY WERTMANWR FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▸OL39TAL30PERF39RET54n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL33TAL27PERF33RET99n=9 · 7 METRICS · 46 OBS
▸LB18TAL36PERF18RET100n=6 · 9 METRICS · 30 OBS
▸DB36TAL42PERF36RET82n=9 · 6 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS22 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JACOB BOOTHHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
TYLER JEFFERSONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
BRENT HOPPEHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
SHATAVIOUS HOGANHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAVORIAN WIMBERLYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
RYAN BLUMHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JEREMIAH ALSTON-JACKSONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
MARK-ALLEN GAYHS RECRUITS★3UNR
MATTHEW NEHFHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JAKIVION CALIPHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN2 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
STEPHAN BRACEYWISCONSINWRUNR★3
JAKE WALRATHTARLETON STATEPUNR★2
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT26 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TYDEN FERRISGEORGIA STATEOL★2★2
DANIEL RICHARDSONFLORIDA ATLANTICQB★3★2
FINN HOGANBOWLING GREENWRUNR★2
LAQUAN JOHNSON JR.BETHUNE-COOKMANDLUNRUNR
CADE CONLEYMARSHALLTEUNR★3
ISAIAH ROGERSMONMOUTHDL★3★3
LUKE ELZINGAOKLAHOMAP★2★3
JAMEZZ KIMBROUGHELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
RONALD KENT JR.ELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
THOMAS INCOOMELIGIBILITY UPDL★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES48%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS72%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#91NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.7858COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
211 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST32% BACK32th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG32% BACK32th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR54%54th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST82%82th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE