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HOME›TEAMS›ILLINOIS›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG TEN|BRET BIELEMA|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
ILLINOIS61 FPIB1G · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
55FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
83%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
71%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#383 BC / 22
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
5-7ACTUALvs4.7-7.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-4.9
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE53
PERFORMANCE53
TALENT59
CONTINUITY83
DEFENSE37
PERFORMANCE37
TALENT56
CONTINUITY71
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
59MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HTOLEDO—W 30-28376161-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 8AKANSAS#23L 23-34558282-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HPENN STATE#13L 13-30919797-53BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HFLORIDA ATLANTIC—W 23-17492525+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30APURDUE—L 19-44663232+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 6HNEBRASKA—L 7-20855151-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14AMARYLAND—W 27-24698585-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HWISCONSIN—L 21-25797878-34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4AMINNESOTA—W 27-26595353-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HINDIANA—W 48-45663131+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AIOWA#24L 13-15716666-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HNORTHWESTERN—L 43-45634848-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB41TAL88PERF41RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
LUKE ALTMYERQB SEPORTAL · OLE MISS
★4★48169%+12HELD
4
JOHN PADDOCKQB SEPORTAL · BALL STATE
★3★36731%-5HELD
10
DONOVAN LEARYQB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
6
CAL SWANSONQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
11
JACOB HUBERQB JURET
UNR—00%——
12
KIRKLAND MICHAUXQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB53TAL85PERF53RET99ROTATIONn=3 · 5 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
23
REGGIE LOVE IIIRB SERET
★3★38543%-27HELD
2
JOSH MCCRAYRB SERET
★3★36417%-29HELD
21
AIDAN LAUGHERYRB SERET
★3—456%-13—
24
NICK FEDANZORB JURET
★3—60%——
23
JORDAN ANDERSONRB SERET
★3—00%——
22
JEAN-MARC ETIENNERB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE51TAL53PERF54RET82ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 41 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
ISAIAH WILLIAMSWR JURET
★4—9731%+27—
14
CASEY WASHINGTONWR SERET
★3★39730%+1HELD
89
TIP REIMANTE JURET
UNR—9258%-2—
13
PAT BRYANTWR SERET
★3—8722%+15—
83
KADEN FEAGINTE SENO SNAPS
★4—7732%+12—
13
GRIFFIN MOORETE SERET
★3★36420%+32HELD
87
HENRY BOYERTE SERET
★3★35411%—HELD
2
ASHTON HOLLINSWR SERET
★3★3545%+1HELD
85
TANNER ARKINTE SEPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
★3★35311%-34HELD
80
HANK BEATTYWR SERET
★3—535%-44—
88
MALIK ELZYWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★3453%—FELL
1
SHAWN MILLERWR SERET
★3★3352%—HELD
7
KENARI WILCHERWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3301%—HELD
83
KEION BATTLEWR SORET
★2★2291%—HELD
36
BEN SCHULTZTE JURET
UNR—00%——
12
EIAN PUGHWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
87
OWEN ANDERSONTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
17
COLLIN DIXONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
82
NATE GUINNTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
86
WESTON ADAMSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
7
ALEXANDER CAPKA-JONESWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
87
TYLER MCCLUREWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL39TAL58PERF39RET93n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL38TAL65PERF38RET76n=6 · 7 METRICS · 36 OBS
▸LB39TAL55PERF39RET100n=7 · 11 METRICS · 56 OBS
▸DB45TAL51PERF45RET67n=8 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS20 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MALIK ELZYHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
SABOOR KARRIEMHS RECRUITS★4UNR
KADEN FEAGINHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
KENARI WILCHERHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
COLLIN DIXONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
CAL SWANSONHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
BRANDON HENDERSONHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
TREY SMITHHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ZACHARY TOBEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JOJO HAYDENHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN5 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LUKE ALTMYEROLE MISSQB★4★4
NICARIO HARPERLOUISVILLESUNR★3
JOHN PADDOCKBALL STATEQB★3★3
TANNER ARKINCOLORADO STATETE★3★3
DENZEL DAXONOHIODLUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT26 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CALVIN HART JR.OREGON STATELB★3UNR
BRIAN HIGHTOWERCALIFORNIAWR★4★3
SHAMMOND COOPERAKRONLB★4★4
RAASHAAN WILKINS JR.UCONNDLUNRUNR
ALEX PIHLSTROMELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
ALEX PALCZEWSKIELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
JARTAVIUS MARTINELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
SYDNEY BROWNELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
KENDALL SMITHELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
CALVIN AVERYELIGIBILITY UPDL★4—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES81%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS34%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#38NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
3OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8583COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
711 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST27% BACK27th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG27% BACK27th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR93%93th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST67%67th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE