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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|JOE HARASYMIAK|—RECORD0-12|CONF—
MASSACHUSETTS136 FPIMAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
15FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
35%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
39%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1450 BC / 11
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
0-12ACTUALvs0.6-11.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-27.5
0 wins against a scoring profile describing 0.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE1
PERFORMANCE1
TALENT32
CONTINUITY35
DEFENSE1
PERFORMANCE1
TALENT27
CONTINUITY39
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
36MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HTEMPLE—L 10-42183636-36BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HBRYANT—L 26-27————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13AIOWA#17L 7-47709292-92BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27AMISSOURI—L 6-42858585-85BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HWESTERN MICHIGAN—L 3-21244343-43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AKENT STATE—L 6-42744-4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HBUFFALO—L 21-28193030-30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25ACENTRAL MICHIGAN—L 13-38122626-26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 4AAKRON—L 10-44251414-14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 12HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—L 3-45966-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 18AOHIO—L 14-4293939-39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 25HBOWLING GREEN—L 14-45231717-17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB33TAL45PERF33RET53ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
AJ HAIRSTONQB FRRET
★3★37753%-48HELD
9
GRANT JORDANQB SEPORTAL · YALE
UNR★36926%-30EMERGED
14
BRANDON ROSEQB SEPORTAL · UTAH
★3★36521%-30HELD
19
ZACH LAWRENCEQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
13
WILL PERRYQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB17TAL17PERF17RET6ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
26
BRANDON HOODRB SOPORTAL · COLORADO
★3★38438%-44HELD
24
ROCKO GRIFFINRB JUPORTAL · UTSA
★3★37324%-20HELD
23
ELIJAH FAULKNERRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—6517%-60—
28
JUWAUN PRICERB SEPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
★2★36215%-25ROSE
4
DA'MARION ALBERICRB JURET
★3—466%——
22
COOKIE DESIDERIORB SORET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
20
GODSON OFONAGORORB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE21TAL30PERF21RET20ONE OWNERn=10 · 8 METRICS · 58 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
MAX DOWLINGTE SEPORTAL · UT MARTIN
UNR★29247%-29EMERGED
12
DONNIE GRAYWR SEPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN
★3★39125%-26HELD
4
JACQUON GIBSONWR SERET
★2★38822%-6ROSE
83
REECE ADKINSTE SEPORTAL · UCF
UNR★37625%-9EMERGED
0
KENYON MASSEYWR FRRET
★3★37313%-56HELD
7
JAKE MCCONNACHIEWR SEPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
UNR★37313%+6EMERGED
86
JAX MARKOVICHTE SONO SNAPS
★3—7021%-43—
5
TYREE KELLYWR JUPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
UNR—6710%-52—
8
KEZION DIA-JOHNSONWR JURET
★3—627%-48—
17
DALLAS ELLIOTTWR SERET
UNR—575%-59—
3
ELIJAH PEDROWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—514%——
87
OWEN ANDERSONTE SERET
★3★3496%-34HELD
2
T.Y. HARDINGWR SERET
★2—422%+26—
18
MATT OGUNNIYITE JUPORTAL · RUTGERS
★3★3292%—HELD
88
JOHN CONDAKESTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
SAMUEL BADDOOWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
6
SAVION ROBINSONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
15
JENOA ALFORDWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL21TAL32PERF21RET45n=10 · 3 METRICS · 27 OBS
▸DL16TAL31PERF16RET41n=9 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
▸LB15TAL24PERF15RET73n=7 · 11 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸DB29TAL21PERF29RET37n=11 · 6 METRICS · 46 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS6 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DINOS DROSSOSHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JERRY WASHINGTONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
GARRETT COOPERHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JAX MARKOVICHHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
ZACH LAWRENCEHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
GAVIN WILSONHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN19 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRANDON HOODCOLORADORB★3★3
ROMANDO JOHNSONWEST VIRGINIAEDGE★3★3
MATT OGUNNIYIRUTGERSTE★3★3
MALACHI MADISONVIRGINIA TECHDL★3★3
BRANDON ROSEUTAHQB★3★3
KYLE BROWNDARTMOUTHIOLUNR★3
DD SNYDERBALL STATES★3★3
SULLIVAN WEIDMANWEST VIRGINIAIOL★3★3
GRANT JORDANYALEQBUNR★3
JUWAUN PRICENORTH TEXASRB★2★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT46 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LOUCE JULIENTOLEDODE★3★3
JALEN STEWARTTEMPLELBUNR★3
KOFI ASAREFLORIDALB★3★3
STERLING GALBANEAST TENNESSEE STATEWR★3★3
AARON BECKWITHTEMPLEDT★3★3
JALEN JOHNCOASTAL CAROLINARB★3★3
MYLES TURNERTOWSONLB★3★2
MATT SMITHRHODE ISLANDTE★3★3
ANTHONY SIMPSONMICHIGANWRUNR★3
KESHAWN BROWNMERRIMACKWRUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES92%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS76%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#145NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 11 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8362COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3527 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
26TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
0
5
9
7
5
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-3 TO +9 W
IMPROVED12 OF 26
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST94% BACK94th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG94% BACK94th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR45%45th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR53%53th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST37%37th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE