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HOME›TEAMS›PENN STATE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG TEN|JAMES FRANKLIN|—RECORD10-3|CONF—
PENN STATE#13 AP 3 FPIB1G · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
91FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
92%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
94%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1418 BC / 24
BC RATIO
59%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs11.3-0.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+25.8
10 wins against a scoring profile describing 11.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE77
PERFORMANCE77
TALENT88
CONTINUITY92
DEFENSE95
PERFORMANCE95
TALENT86
CONTINUITY94
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
61MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HWEST VIRGINIA—W 38-15647272+25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HDELAWARE—W 63-74———NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16AILLINOIS—W 30-13554444+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HIOWA#24W 31-0716666+31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30ANORTHWESTERN—W 41-13634848+49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HMASSACHUSETTS—W 63-04566+91BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AOHIO STATE#10L 12-20999898-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HINDIANA—W 33-24663131+66BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4AMARYLAND—W 51-15698585+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HMICHIGAN#1L 15-2491100100-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HRUTGERS—W 27-6565959+38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24AMICHIGAN STATE—W 42-0813434+63BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 30HOLE MISS—L 25-38849292+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB64TAL99PERF64RET94ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
DREW ALLARQB SERET
★5—9394%-28—
7
BEAU PRIBULAQB SERET
★3★4356%—ROSE
14
JAXON SMOLIKQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
28
KARSON KIESEWETTERQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
19
JACK LAMBERTQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB59TAL96PERF59RET92ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
NICHOLAS SINGLETONRB SERET
★5—9547%+7—
13
KAYTRON ALLENRB SERET
★4—9343%+10—
23
TREY POTTSRB SEPORTAL · MINNESOTA
★3★3558%+3HELD
38
TANK SMITHRB SERET
★5—211%-57—
34
TYLER HOLZWORTHRB SERET
UNR—90%——
7
LONDON MONTGOMERYRB SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
30
AMIEL DAVISRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
26
CAM WALLACERB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE54TAL83PERF49RET86ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
44
TYLER WARRENTE SERET
★3—9746%+31—
84
THEO JOHNSONTE JURET
★4—9643%+4—
5
KEANDRE LAMBERT-SMITHWR SERET
★4★49232%+12HELD
14
DANTE CEPHASWR SEPORTAL · KENT STATE
★3★37117%+30HELD
2
HARRISON WALLACE IIIWR SERET
★3★46714%-7ROSE
2
LIAM CLIFFORDWR SERET
★3—6412%-16—
12
MALIK MCCLAINWR SEPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
★4★3599%-25FELL
5
OMARI EVANSWR SERET
★3★3578%-37HELD
16
KHALIL DINKINSTE SERET
★3—558%——
7
KADEN SAUNDERSWR JURET
★4★4536%-44HELD
87
ANDREW RAPPLEYEATE JUNO SNAPS
★4—373%——
3
MALICK MEIGAWR SERET
★3★3322%—HELD
88
JERRY CROSSTE JURET
★4★3191%—FELL
4
CRISTIAN DRIVERWR JURET
★4★460%—HELD
86
JASON ESTRELLAWR JURET
UNR—00%——
2
MASON STAHLWR JURET
★2—00%——
12
ANTHONY IVEYWR SERET
★4★300%—FELL
83
JAKE SPENCERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
36
FEYISAYO OLULEYEWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
JAN MAHLERTWR SORET
UNR—00%——
18
JOEY SCHLAFFERTE SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
21
CARMELO TAYLORWR JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
82
ETHAN BLACKWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
FINN FURMANEKTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL64TAL86PERF64RET97n=8 · 3 METRICS · 22 OBS
▸DL76TAL91PERF76RET97n=12 · 8 METRICS · 67 OBS
▸LB76TAL89PERF76RET91n=5 · 10 METRICS · 30 OBS
▸DB55TAL81PERF55RET91n=9 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS22 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
J'VEN WILLIAMSHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
ALEX BIRCHMEIERHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
TONY ROJASHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
KING MACKHS RECRUITS★4UNR
ANDREW RAPPLEYEAHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
DAKAARI NELSONHS RECRUITS★4UNR
ELLIOT WASHINGTON IIHS RECRUITS★4UNR
JAMEIAL LYONSHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
CHIMDY ONOHHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
KAVEION KEYSHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN3 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DANTE CEPHASKENT STATEWR★3★4
MALIK MCCLAINFLORIDA STATEWR★4★3
TREY POTTSMINNESOTARB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT27 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MARQUIS WILSONPURDUEDB★4★4
JIMMY CHRISTVIRGINIAOT★4★3
KEYVONE LEEMISSISSIPPI STATERB★4★3
FATORMA MULBAHWEST VIRGINIADL★3★3
CHRISTIAN VEILLEUXPITTSBURGHQB★3★3
RODNEY MCGRAWLOUISVILLEDL★3★3
JADEN DOTTINTOLEDOS★4★4
DEVYN FORDNOTRE DAMERB★4★3
JUICE SCRUGGSELIGIBILITY UPOL★4—
JI'AYIR BROWNELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES22%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS52%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#14NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
18OF 24 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9114COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
614 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
48TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
3
11
10
12
12
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.3 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +10 W
IMPROVED24 OF 48
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST49% BACK49th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG49% BACK49th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR97%97th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR94%94th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST91%91th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE