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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
PAC-12|G.J. KINNE|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
TEXAS STATE61 FPIPAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
28FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
67%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
48%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#960 BC / 15
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+12.8
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE56
PERFORMANCE56
TALENT55
CONTINUITY67
DEFENSE55
PERFORMANCE55
TALENT47
CONTINUITY48
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
34MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HLAMAR—W 34-27————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7HUTSA—W 49-10525353+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 12HARIZONA STATE#7L 28-31797474-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28ASAM HOUSTON—L 39-40182727+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 3ATROY—W 38-17182929+36BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HARKANSAS STATE—W 41-9382323+42BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19AOLD DOMINION—L 14-2472929+36BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10OCT 29HLOUISIANA—L 17-23316161+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9AUL MONROE—W 38-17699+56BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HSOUTHERN MISS—W 58-33511+64BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HGEORGIA STATE—L 44-523488+57BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ASOUTH ALABAMA—W 45-38325555+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 3HNORTH TEXAS—W 30-28433434+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB57TAL87PERF57RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
JORDAN MCCLOUDQB SEPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
★3★39190%+30HELD
4
RJ MARTINEZQB JUPORTAL · BAYLOR
UNR★2366%+9EMERGED
8
BRAD JACKSONQB SONO SNAPS
★3—294%——
7
PJ HATTERQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
5
LINCOLN PHILYAWQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
44
KARSON KAISERQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB57TAL36PERF57RET50ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
ISMAIL MAHDIRB SERET
UNR★39650%+15EMERGED
7
LINCOLN PARERB SERET
★2—7924%+19—
4
TORRANCE BURGESS JR.RB JUPORTAL · UTEP
UNR★37015%+35EMERGED
33
DEION HANKINSRB SEPORTAL · UTEP
★3★36110%0HELD
5
JAYLEN JENKINSRB SEPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
★3★3121%+3HELD
30
TYRESE BROWNRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
35
JAYDON BAILEYRB FRPORTAL · UTAH STATE
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE43TAL48PERF51RET76ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
19
KOLE WILSONWR SERET
UNR★39526%+3EMERGED
9
KONNER FOXTE SERET
★3★39368%-26HELD
0
JADEN WILLIAMSWR SEPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
UNR★39324%+16EMERGED
10
JOEY HOBERTWR SERET
★3★39123%+28HELD
1
CHRIS DAWN JR.WR SERET
★3—8016%+8—
11
BEAU SPARKSWR SEPORTAL · UTAH TECH
UNR★3689%+23EMERGED
86
TITUS LYONSTE SERET
UNR—6625%-30—
16
BLAKE SMITHTE SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
★3★33898%—HELD
88
JAKE SIMPSONTE JURET
★3—354%——
18
DREW DONLEYWR JURET
★3★3341%+25HELD
13
GRIFFIN MOORETE SEPORTAL · ILLINOIS
★3★3303%+33HELD
12
JAYLON GRIFFINWR SEPORTAL · TULANE
UNR★370%-31EMERGED
27
KANNON WEBBWR JURET
UNR—00%——
18
LANGSTON ANDERSONWR SERET
★4★400%-25HELD
19
DAWSON MENEGATTIWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
ISAAC NORRISWR SORET
UNR—00%——
85
CULLEN SMITHWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
44
AUSTIN SAMAHATE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
29
BRANDON TREGGSWR SORET
★2—00%——
87
GAGE PATRICKTE SORET
UNR—00%——
2
KYLEN EVANSWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
23
JUNIOR THORNTONWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
1
DYLAN RHODESWR SORET
UNR—00%——
14
JORDAN MARTINWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
89
JORDAN WILLIAMSTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▸OL68TAL62PERF68RET77n=6 · 3 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL75TAL58PERF75RET59n=10 · 8 METRICS · 60 OBS
▸LB51TAL32PERF51RET23n=7 · 11 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸DB62TAL41PERF62RET39n=10 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS8 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KYLEN EVANSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
FREDRICK DOTIEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JORDAN MARTINHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TICE WILLIAMSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
TYLER NORRISHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
DERRICK OSMONDHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JERMY JACKSON JR.HS RECRUITLB★3UNR
BROCK RIKERHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN17 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN MCCLOUDJAMES MADISONQB★3★3
JAYDEN DE LAURAARIZONAQB★3★3
TUNMISE ADELEYEMICHIGAN STATEDL★4★3
STEVEN PARKERINCARNATE WORDEDGE★4★3
DEION HANKINSUTEPRB★3★3
TREYLIN PAYNEHOUSTONLB★3★3
ALEX MERRITTEASTERN MICHIGANDL★3★3
TORRANCE BURGESS JR.UTEPRBUNR★3
MARTIN TINECALIFORNIAIOLUNR★3
JAYLEN JENKINSWASHINGTON STATERB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT41 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TJ FINLEYWESTERN KENTUCKYQB★3★3
ASHTYN HAWKINSBAYLORWRUNR★3
CHRISTIAN RORIEDUKEDT★3★3
DONERIO DAVENPORTLOUISIANA TECHRBUNR★3
BRYCE CAGEGRAMBLINGDLUNR★3
RONNIE HAMRICKLAMARDBUNRUNR
CALVIN HILLHOUSTON CHRISTIANRB★3★3
DAMARIUS GOODLONG ISLAND UNIVERSITYRB★3UNR
JAYLON SHELTONUTEPCB★3★3
MALIK HORNSBYARKANSAS STATEWR★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES56%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS31%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#96NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 15 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8394COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3022 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST36% BACK36th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG36% BACK36th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR77%77th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST39%39th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE