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HOME›TEAMS›TOLEDO›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|JASON CANDLE|—RECORD11-3|CONF—
TOLEDO61 FPIMAC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
37FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
76%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
97%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1020 BC / 17
BC RATIO
6%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs9.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+13.0
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE58
PERFORMANCE58
TALENT49
CONTINUITY76
DEFENSE52
PERFORMANCE52
TALENT49
CONTINUITY97
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
28MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2AILLINOIS—L 28-30554444+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HTEXAS SOUTHERN—W 71-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16HSAN JOSÉ STATE—W 21-17384242+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 49-311999+52BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 35-33133030+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7AMASSACHUSETTS—W 41-244566+55BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14ABALL STATE—W 13-6201111+50BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AMIAMI (OH)—W 21-17215656+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10OCT 31HBUFFALO—W 31-1381111+50BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 49-23161818+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 14ABOWLING GREEN—W 32-31182929+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24ACENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 32-17955+56BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14DEC 2HMIAMI (OH)—L 14-23215656+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 30AWYOMING—L 15-16114242+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB58TAL56PERF58RET99ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
DEQUAN FINNQB SERET
★3★38786%+17HELD
4
TUCKER GLEASONQB SERET
★3★34913%-9HELD
6
JOHN ALAN RICHTERQB JURET
★3—101%——
13
JAKE DEHAANQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
12
RJ JOHNSON IIIQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB40TAL68PERF40RET94ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
PENY BOONERB SERET
★4★49549%+15HELD
JACQUEZ STUARTRB SERET
★3—8836%+16—
32
WILLIE SHAW IIIRB SERET
★3—548%-5—
8
CONNOR WALENDZAKRB SENO SNAPS
★3—394%-56—
25
MIKE DRENNEN IIRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—242%+38—
3
MICAH KELLYRB JURET
★3★3242%-34HELD
28
BRYCE MCMAHONRB JURET
UNR—121%——
11
KRIS PECHACRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE41TAL49PERF38RET93ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
88
ANTHONY TORRESTE SERET
★3—9973%+45—
1
JERJUAN NEWTONWR SERET
★3—9428%+12—
2
JUNIOR VANDEROSS IIIWR SERET
★3—8723%+26—
3
LARRY STEPHENS IIIWR SERET
★3—7114%-14—
8
DEVIN MADDOXWR SERET
UNR—6410%+1—
41
DALTON ANDREWSTE JURET
UNR—6316%——
14
CC EZIRIMTE SENO SNAPS
UNR★3507%—EMERGED
81
ERIC HOLLEY IIIWR SERET
★3—504%-62—
84
THOMAS ZSIROSWR SERET
★3—453%+28—
13
COOPER RUSKWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—372%——
10
ADAM BEALEWR SERET
UNR—362%——
89
BLAKE NELSONTE SONO SNAPS
★3★2241%—FELL
83
JALEN VANDERBOSCHWR JURET
UNR—221%——
86
DONIVON THOMASTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—211%——
83
JUSTIN STEPHENSTE JURET
★3—131%——
34
CONNOR JONESTE SERET
★3—110%——
80
ELIJAH WESLEYWR SORET
★3—100%——
81
DALEN STOVALLWR SORET
★3—60%——
2
JEDIYAH WILLOUGHBYWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
6
JARET FRANTZWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
40
LENNY KUHLTE SORET
UNR—00%——
28
SAM SMITH JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
10
JERMAINE FOSTERWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
21
JULIAN ALLENWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
12
BRYSON HAMMERWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
16
JAVION BOSTICWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL50TAL43PERF50RET62n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL64TAL50PERF64RET94n=9 · 7 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸LB56TAL58PERF56RET98n=6 · 11 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸DB50TAL43PERF50RET95n=9 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MASON LUDWIGHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
WAYNE PEART IIHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
LAITH SHAMMAHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
COLE RHETTHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JULIAN ALLENHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
RJ JOHNSON IIIHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
BRADEN AWLSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
SAM SMITH JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
NICHOLAS THOMPSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JEDIYAH WILLOUGHBYHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN3 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ROD ORRFLORIDA STATEOTUNR★4
TRAVION FORDMISSOURIEDGE★4★4
JACKSON CANNONMISSISSIPPI STATEOT★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT24 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEMEER BLANKUMSEEMEMPHISWR★3★3
LAVEL DUMONTRICEOL★3★3
MIKE COLEMANUALBANYCB★3UNR
BEN LISKUNLVLS★2UNR
DYONTAE JOHNSONELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
DESJUAN JOHNSONELIGIBILITY UPDT★3—
JAMAL TURNERELIGIBILITY UPTE★2—
KELVIN ATEMANELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
MITCHELL BERGELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
NATE GIVHANELIGIBILITY UPLB★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES0%1 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS38%4 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#102NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8290COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
39 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST91% BACK91th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG91% BACK91th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR62%62th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST95%95th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE