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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SEC|CLARK LEA|—RECORD10-3|CONF—
VANDERBILT#15 AP 14 FPISEC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
61FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
55%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
70%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#762 BC / 14
BC RATIO
17%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
10-2ACTUALvs9.6-2.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+17.5
10 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE100
PERFORMANCE100
TALENT73
CONTINUITY55
DEFENSE52
PERFORMANCE52
TALENT62
CONTINUITY70
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
65MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HCHARLESTON SOUTHERN—W 45-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6AVIRGINIA TECH—W 44-20722323+70BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13ASOUTH CAROLINA—W 31-7886464+29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HGEORGIA STATE—W 70-214522+91BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HUTAH STATE—W 55-35184242+51BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4AALABAMA#9L 14-30998686+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HLSU—W 31-24967777+16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HMISSOURI—W 17-10858585+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1ATEXAS#12L 31-34988888+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HAUBURN—W 45-38917979+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HKENTUCKY—W 45-17815151+42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ATENNESSEE—W 45-24898787+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 31HIOWA#17L 27-34709292+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB81TAL84PERF81RET95ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
DIEGO PAVIAQB SERET
UNR★39595%+30EMERGED
1
BLAZE BERLOWITZQB SERET
UNR★3354%+7EMERGED
10
WHIT MUSCHAMPQB JURET
★3—101%——
7
DREW DICKEYQB SERET
★3★350%—HELD
11
JACK ELLIOTTQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB54TAL56PERF54RET77ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
28
SEDRICK ALEXANDERRB SERET
★3—9361%-11—
22
MAKHILYN YOUNGRB SENO SNAPS
★2★36822%+35ROSE
44
GABE FISHERFB SERET
UNR—5910%——
23
AJ NEWBERRYRB SERET
★3★35711%+1HELD
3
JAMEZELL LASSITERRB JURET
UNR—333%——
24
GABE FIELDSRB SONO SNAPS
★3—182%——
43
DOMINIC REZACRB SERET
UNR—131%——
13
CHASE GILLESPIERB SERET
★3★300%-50HELD
47
ISAIAH FONTANRB JURET
UNR—00%——
42
JAKE BALISRB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE80TAL77PERF76RET78ROTATIONn=6 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
JUNIOR SHERRILLWR SERET
★3—9530%+17—
0
TRE RICHARDSONWR SEPORTAL · WASHBURN
★3★49329%+30ROSE
9
ELI STOWERSTE SERET
★4★39142%+39FELL
16
COLE SPENCETE SERET
★3—8737%+55—
5
RICHIE HOSKINSWR SERET
UNR—8422%-21—
5
TRISTEN BROWNWR JURET
★3—617%+24—
45
EMMANUEL ADEBITE SERET
UNR—569%——
9
BRYCEN COLEMANWR JURET
★3—494%——
13
KAYLEB BARNETTWR SONO SNAPS
★3—473%——
1
TRENT HUDSONWR SEPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
UNR★3443%+34EMERGED
15
JOSEPH MCVAYWR JURET
★3—321%——
13
BOSKI BARRETTWR JURET
★3★3231%—HELD
48
LARRY BENTON IIITE SORET
UNR—171%——
87
WITT EDWARDSWR SORET
★4★3150%—FELL
49
ELIJAH ROONEYTE JURET
UNR—00%——
17
CHANCE FITZGERALDWR JUPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
★4★400%—HELD
83
DEREK KEEWR JURET
UNR—00%——
80
CLAIBORNE RICHARDSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
LEBRON HILLWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
89
CAMERAN DICKSONTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
87
TY BURDWR SERET
UNR—00%——
35
RYDER BROWNSTEINWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
38
WILS JACKSONWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL55TAL70PERF56RET37n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL58TAL60PERF58RET69n=10 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸LB62TAL65PERF62RET96n=10 · 11 METRICS · 54 OBS
▸DB61TAL62PERF61RET63n=12 · 8 METRICS · 62 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CARSON LAWRENCEHS RECRUITS★4UNR
AUSTIN HOWARDHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
DAVIN CHANDLERHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JOSIAH BROXTONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
VANZALE HINTONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
CAMERAN DICKSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
LEBRON HILLHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
CAYDEN DANIELSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
KAYLEB BARNETTHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JACK ELLIOTTHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN WHITELIBERTYIOL★3★4
JAYLON STONESOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATEDLUNR★3
TRE RICHARDSONWASHBURNWR★3★3
BRYCE HENDERSONSOUTH DAKOTAOTUNR★3
KEANU KOHTALABAMAEDGE★4★3
STERLING PORCHERTEXAS TECHIOLUNR★3
JORDAN MATTHEWSTENNESSEECB★4★3
CLINTON AZUBUIKENORTHERN ARIZONAOTUNR★3
MASON NELSONWESTERN MICHIGANDL★2★3
TRENT HUDSONMISSISSIPPI STATEWRUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT28 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GUNNAR HANSENFLORIDA STATEOL★3★3
DE'MARION THOMASOKLAHOMA STATEDL★3★3
JEFFREY UGOCHUKWUCOASTAL CAROLINAS★3★3
BJ DIAKITENORTH ALABAMALB★3★3
DEVIN LEESOUTH FLORIDADT★3★3
KAMREAN JOHNSONWAKE FORESTTE★3★3
DARREN AGUNEW MEXICODE★3★3
NATE JOHNSONUTAHRB★3★3
JULIAN ASHBYNFL DRAFT R7LSUNR—
CJ TAYLORELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES7%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS25%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#76NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8633COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2021 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST92% BACK92th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG92% BACK92th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR37%37th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR95%95th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST63%63th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE