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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG TEN|JEDD FISCH|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
WASHINGTON46 FPIB1G · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
75FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
26%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
57%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-9IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#474 BC / 16
BC RATIO
22%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
6-6ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-0.3
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE81
PERFORMANCE81
TALENT69
CONTINUITY26
DEFENSE74
PERFORMANCE74
TALENT76
CONTINUITY57
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
69MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HWEBER STATE—W 35-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7HEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 30-9211515+42BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HWASHINGTON STATE—L 19-24464949+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HNORTHWESTERN—W 24-5612424+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27ARUTGERS—L 18-21586969-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HMICHIGAN—W 27-17898181-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AIOWA—L 16-40728989-32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26AINDIANA#10L 17-31599292-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HUSC—W 26-21908383-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9APENN STATE#5L 6-35939797-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HUCLA—W 31-19804444+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AOREGON#3L 21-49969999-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 31HLOUISVILLE—L 34-35748585-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB63TAL95PERF63RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
WILL ROGERSQB SEPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
★3★48169%+35ROSE
1
DEMOND WILLIAMS JR.QB JUPORTAL · ARIZONA
★4★46831%+39HELD
17
TEDDY PURCELLQB JURET
UNR—00%——
14
SHEA KUYKENDALLQB JUPORTAL · NORTHERN COLORADO
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB73TAL90PERF73RET4ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
JONAH COLEMANRB SEPORTAL · ARIZONA
★3★39559%+20HELD
23
CAM DAVISRB SENO SNAPS
★4—7120%+9—
24
ADAM MOHAMMEDRB JUPORTAL · ARIZONA
★3★46817%-1ROSE
21
DANIYEL NGATARB SERET
★4★3252%+14FELL
28
SAM ADAMS IIRB SERET
★4★4222%+10HELD
4
JORDAN WASHINGTONRB SOPORTAL · ARIZONA
UNR★491%—EMERGED
6
RYDER BUMGARNERRB FRRET
★2★200%—HELD
▾WR/TE58TAL72PERF59RET44ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 37 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
85
KELEKI LATUTE SEPORTAL · NEVADA
★3★39972%-6HELD
5
GILES JACKSONWR SERET
★3★49832%+18ROSE
12
DENZEL BOSTONWR JURET
★3—9832%+12—
6
JEREMIAH HUNTERWR SEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★3★39024%+20HELD
86
DECKER DEGRAAFTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—7325%+46—
3
RASHID WILLIAMSWR JURET
★4—617%+8—
2
AUDRIC HARRISWR JUPORTAL · ARIZONA
★3★3483%—HELD
0
KEITH REYNOLDSWR JURET
★3★3432%—HELD
88
QUENTIN MOORETE SERET
★3—312%-20—
82
OWEN COUTTSTE JURET
UNR—141%——
18
CAMDEN SIRMONWR JURET
UNR★200%—EMERGED
80
WILSON SCHWARTZTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
0
KEVIN GREEN JR.WR JUPORTAL · ARIZONA
★3★400%—ROSE
87
RYAN OTTONTE JURET
★4—00%——
5
JASON ROBINSON JR.WR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
84
JACKSON GIROUARDWR JURET
UNR—00%——
16
JUSTICE WILLIAMSWR SONO SNAPS
★4—00%——
89
CHARLIE CROWELLTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
31
LUKE LUCHINIWR SORET
★2—00%——
35
JACE BURTONWR SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
83
LUKE GAYTONWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL42TAL59PERF42RET14n=8 · 3 METRICS · 23 OBS
▸DL42TAL77PERF42RET49n=11 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB24TAL59PERF24RET86n=5 · 11 METRICS · 34 OBS
▸DB62TAL82PERF62RET51n=9 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS10 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PEYTON WATERSHS RECRUITS★4UNR
DERMARICUS DAVISHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
PAKI FINAUHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
JUSTICE WILLIAMSHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
PAUL MENCKE JR.HS RECRUITS★3UNR
JASON ROBINSON JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
RAHSHAWN CLARKHS RECRUITS★3UNR
KHMORI HOUSEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
DECKER DEGRAAFHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
RAHIM WRIGHT IIHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN15 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAYDEN WAYNEMIAMIEDGE★4★4
DREW AZZOPARDISAN DIEGO STATEOT★3★4
DEMOND WILLIAMS JR.ARIZONAQB★4★4
JORDAN WASHINGTONARIZONARBUNR★4
EPHESIANS PRYSOCKARIZONACB★4★4
SEBASTIAN VALDEZMONTANA STATEDLUNR★4
WILL ROGERSMISSISSIPPI STATEQB★3★4
JONAH COLEMANARIZONARB★3★3
BRYUN PARHAMSAN JOSÉ STATELB★3★3
JEREMIAH HUNTERCALIFORNIAWR★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT44 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PARKER BRAILSFORDALABAMAOL★3★4
JABBAR MUHAMMADOREGONDB★3★4
NATE KALEPOOLE MISSOL★4★3
MISHAEL POWELLMIAMIDB★3★4
JULIUS BUELOWOLE MISSOL★4★3
GEIREAN HATCHETTOKLAHOMAOL★4★3
ASA TURNERFLORIDADB★4★3
GERMIE BERNARDALABAMAWR★4★4
WILL NIXONSYRACUSERB★3★3
JOSH CUEVASALABAMATEUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES96%11 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS93%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#47NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
4OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8736COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2736 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST4% BACK4th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG4% BACK4th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR14%14th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST51%51th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE