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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG TEN|LUKE FICKELL|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
WISCONSIN43 FPIB1G · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
79FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
61%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
83%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-5IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#583 BC / 16
BC RATIO
19%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
7-5ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+3.9
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE42
PERFORMANCE42
TALENT76
CONTINUITY61
DEFENSE56
PERFORMANCE56
TALENT74
CONTINUITY83
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
53MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HBUFFALO—W 38-1781111+67BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9AWASHINGTON STATE—L 22-31466363+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 35-14233939+39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 22APURDUE—W 38-17663232+46BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HRUTGERS—W 24-13565959+19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HIOWA#24L 6-15716666+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AILLINOIS—W 25-21554444+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HOHIO STATE#10L 10-24999898-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4AINDIANA—L 14-20663131+47BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HNORTHWESTERN—L 10-24634848+30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HNEBRASKA—W 24-17855151+27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25AMINNESOTA—W 28-14595353+25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 1ALSU#12L 31-35969292-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB50TAL79PERF50RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
TANNER MORDECAIQB SEPORTAL · SMU
★4★48570%+30HELD
8
BRAEDYN LOCKEQB JUPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
★4★36830%-51FELL
10
MYLES BURKETTQB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
3
NICK EVERSQB SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
★4★300%—FELL
3
COLE LACRUEQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB61TAL73PERF61RET100ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
BRAELON ALLENRB JURET
★4—9551%+18—
1
CHEZ MELLUSIRB SERET
★4★36112%-9FELL
20
CADE YACAMELLIRB SERET
★3★35810%-16HELD
43
GROVER BORTOLOTTIRB SERET
UNR—00%——
20
NATE WHITERB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
44
ZACH GLOUDEMANRB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE38TAL72PERF36RET51ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
WILL PAULINGWR SEPORTAL · CINCINNATI
★3★39724%+19HELD
9
BRYSON GREENWR SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
★3★39321%+15HELD
17
CHIMERE DIKEWR SERET
★3★38517%+9HELD
87
HAYDEN RUCCITE SERET
★3—7949%-1—
1
SKYLER BELLWR SERET
★3★37814%-13HELD
34
JACKSON ACKERTE SERET
★3—7827%+13—
3
C.J. WILLIAMSWR SENO SNAPS
★4★37613%-42FELL
84
TUCKER ASHCRAFTTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★36527%+1HELD
8
VINNY ANTHONY IIWR SERET
★3—648%-52—
37
RILEY NOWAKOWSKITE SERET
UNR★36324%-27EMERGED
12
QUINCY BURROUGHSWR SEPORTAL · CINCINNATI
★3★3473%—HELD
2
TRECH KEKAHUNAWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3331%—HELD
9
KEONTEZ LEWISWR SERET
★3★3150%+35HELD
27
HAAKON ANDERSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
48
COLE DAKOVICHTE JURET
★3—00%——
41
JT SEAGREAVESTE JURET
★3—00%——
42
TYLER JANSEYTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
49
CAM LARGETE SERET
★3—00%——
89
JACK PUGHTE SORET
★3—00%——
82
TOMMY MCINTOSHWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
30
ALEX MOELLERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
84
CHRIS BROOKS JR.WR SERET
★3—00%——
21
CAM FANEWR SORET
UNR—00%——
6
GRADY O'NEILLWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★200%—EMERGED
36
ANGEL TOOMBSTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
23
DAVION THOMAS-KUMPULAWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL71TAL80PERF71RET81n=6 · 3 METRICS · 17 OBS
▸DL42TAL76PERF42RET93n=9 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸LB56TAL74PERF56RET90n=4 · 11 METRICS · 38 OBS
▸DB53TAL73PERF53RET75n=9 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRAEDYN MOOREHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
JAMES DURANDHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
AMARE SNOWDENHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
TRECH KEKAHUNAHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JONAS DUCLONAHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
NATE WHITEHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JACE ARNOLDHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
AJ TISDELLHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
TYLER JANSEYHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JUSTIN TAYLORHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN13 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TANNER MORDECAISMUQB★4★4
C.J. WILLIAMSUSCWRUNR★4
DARIAN VARNERTEMPLEDL★3★3
NICK EVERSOKLAHOMAQB★4★3
JAKE RENFROCINCINNATIIOL★3★3
BRAEDYN LOCKEMISSISSIPPI STATEQB★4★3
JOE HUBERCINCINNATIOTUNR★3
BRYSON GREENOKLAHOMA STATEWR★3★3
NYZIER FOURQUREANGRAND VALLEY STATE UNIVERSITYCBUNR★3
JASON MAITREBOSTON COLLEGES★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT27 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GRAHAM MERTZFLORIDAQB★4★4
ISAAC GUERENDOLOUISVILLERB★3★3
JAYLAN FRANKLINMICHIGAN STATETE★3★3
AVYONNE JONESCOASTAL CAROLINAS★3★3
JULIUS DAVISMONTANA STATERB★3★3
SPENCER LYTLESTANFORDLB★4★4
DEACON HILLIOWAQB★3★3
JOHN TORCHIOELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
JAY SHAWELIGIBILITY UPCB★4—
TYLER BEACHELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES27%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS34%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#58NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
3OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8661COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1419 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
48TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
3
11
10
12
12
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.3 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +10 W
IMPROVED24 OF 48
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST50% BACK50th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG50% BACK50th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR81%81th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST75%75th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE