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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
MOUNTAIN WEST|THOMAS HAMMOCK|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
NORTHERN ILLINOIS122 FPIMWC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
9FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
49%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
62%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-22IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#840 BC / 29
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs3.6-8.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-7.3
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE7
PERFORMANCE7
TALENT34
CONTINUITY49
DEFENSE10
PERFORMANCE10
TALENT40
CONTINUITY62
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
34MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HHOLY CROSS—W 19-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 5AMARYLAND—L 9-20634545-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20AMISSISSIPPI STATE—L 10-38835757-51BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HSAN DIEGO STATE—L 3-6386969-63BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HMIAMI (OH)—L 14-25374040-34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AEASTERN MICHIGAN—L 10-16321313-7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18AOHIO—L 21-4893939-33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HBALL STATE—W 21-71733+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 5ATOLEDO—L 3-42466565-59BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 12AMASSACHUSETTS—W 45-31500+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 18HWESTERN MICHIGAN—L 19-35244343-37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 28HKENT STATE—L 31-35744+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB45TAL31PERF45RET65ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
JOSH HOLSTQB SORET
UNR—7155%-17—
2
BRADY DAVIDSONQB SONO SNAPS
★3—6533%-56—
14
JALEN MACONQB SERET
UNR★34510%-47EMERGED
12
JACKSON PROCTORQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR★3182%—EMERGED
13
DANE HATFIELDQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB64TAL27PERF64RET41ONE OWNERn=3 · 5 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
CHAVON WRIGHTRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—9146%-5—
45
TELLY JOHNSON JR.RB JURET
★3—8537%0—
21
LAZARO ROGERSRB SONO SNAPS
★3—548%+19—
24
ELIJAH PORTERRB SORET
★2—445%+30—
21
JAYLEN POERB JURET
UNR★3414%+26EMERGED
11
ROMELO WARERB SORET
UNR—60%——
34
TRISTON WHITERB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
32
REGINALD CRAIGRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE14TAL33PERF22RET58ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 39 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
87
JAKE APPLEGETTE SERET
★3★39082%-41HELD
1
DEAREE ROGERSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★38532%+17EMERGED
7
GARY GIVENS IIIWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—8027%-12—
9
GEORGE DIMOPOULOSWR JURET
★3—6916%-44—
0
LA'DON BRYANTWR SORET
★3—6816%-61—
3
RICKEY TAYLOR JR.WR SORET
UNR—599%+12—
83
JASON FOWLERTE SORET
★3—448%——
86
DEVON AKERSTE FRRET
★3—376%——
85
JOE STEINTE SORET
★3—222%——
49
DEVIN HABERMEHLTE SONO SNAPS
★3—192%——
25
LANDON TATEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—60%——
88
ANDREW BONDWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—60%——
4
KENJI LEWISWR SERET
UNR★360%—EMERGED
5
JUSTIN LYNCHWR SERET
★3—00%——
89
CASEY POPISHTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
87
LIAM RUSSOTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
17
JAMARI MCIVORYWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
26
THOMAS MCCOYWR FRPORTAL · MARSHALL
UNR★300%—EMERGED
82
CALEB HAACKTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
20
AFY IBEKWEWR FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
30
KEAGAN RUANE-MARTINOWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL30TAL32PERF30RET54n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL21TAL38PERF21RET74n=9 · 7 METRICS · 46 OBS
▸LB38TAL31PERF38RET92n=5 · 10 METRICS · 27 OBS
▸DB46TAL46PERF46RET44n=8 · 6 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS24 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAMES FINLEYHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ELIOT HUMMERHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ANDRUW ELLISHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JAMES LITTLE IVHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
LAZARO ROGERSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
KIMAR NELSONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
LIAM RUSSOHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
MICAH COOKHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
FAWZY OMOTOSOHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
AUSTIN TILLMANHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN1 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
THOMAS MCCOYMARSHALLWRUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT40 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SANTANA BANNERMISSOURIS★3★3
SKYLER GILL-HOWARDTEXAS TECHDLUNR★3
GRAYSON BARNESWEST VIRGINIATEUNR★3
ETHAN HAMPTONILLINOISQB★3★3
AMARIYUN KNIGHTENINDIANADB★3★3
TRAYVON RUDOLPHTOLEDOWR★3★3
RAISHEIN THOMASMISSISSIPPI STATEDL★3★3
CAM'RON DABNEYWESTERN CAROLINACB★3★3
ETHAN TIERNEYFRESNO STATEDB★2★2
ISAIAH BRAGGDRAKEDBUNRUNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES61%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS89%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#84NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 29 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8281COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
426 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
34TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
7
6
6
9
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +1.8 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED15 OF 34
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST65% BACK65th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG65% BACK65th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR54%54th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR65%65th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST44%44th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE